2020 Senate & House

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Joe Fan, May 5, 2019.

  1. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    That is interesting SH. It all comes down to the pictures used for training and the tweaking of the algorithm, right? There could even be other analysis factors which help distinguish faces of one race but not another. Probably just has to do with the data available and the purpose of the modeling.
     
  2. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Yes, it's a code and dataset problem likely driven by the developers market. Unconcious bias could also be at play. A Chinese developer likely sees more differences among Chinese nationals than a Caucasian person who grew up in the Midwest, vice versa for a Caucasian person. It creates all kinds of bias issues for entities (government and private) using these software applications in ethnically diverse environments.

    Our Loss Prevention team wanted to use a software application like this in a retail environment but we determined the software could create challenges in which we would be accused of racial profiling due to false positives. In time the sector will improve.
     
  3. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

  4. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    It is getting quite a bit of play in political circles. I couldn't get past the Post's paywall to read the whole thing, but here's something from Texas that I think covers it well. I've got some thoughts on it, but this could be a little lengthy.

    First, the stuff that Bonnen said about his membership is only controversial because it got recorded. Stuff like that gets said in the Texas Capitol and every capitol all the time. That doesn't mean he was right to say it. It just means that you're getting a glimpse of insider politics that existed long before Dennis Bonnen and will exist long after he's gone. And for the record, I didn't follow Michelle Beckley very much, but Jon Rosenthal is a piece of ****. The label is accurate, if unprofessional and rude. Bonnen definitely isn't the only person to call him that or something similar.

    Second, I'm quite surprised that Bonnen would have an "honest" conversation with or strategize with Michael Sullivan. I would trust Trump and Chuck Schumer to have an honest conversation far more than I'd trust Sullivan and Bonnen.

    Sullivan is a hand-puppet for a guy named Tim Dunn, who's a billionaire oil man from West Texas. Sullivan's big issue is bringing down property taxes and curbing local government spending and debt, and he (with Dunn's money) has an organization called Empower Texans and its project Texans for Fiscal Responsibility.

    On paper, I have no problem with Sullivan. Our property taxes are ridiculous. Furthermore, our local government debt is outrageous. You hear a lot about how the State of Texas is in better fiscal shape than California, New York, Illinois, etc. That's only true for the state. In terms of local government debt, Texas is a dumpster fire. Of the ten largest states, only New York local governments are in worse fiscal shape. California local governments have more total debt, but per capita Texas has quite a bit more. Even with all the fiscal problems Detroit, Flint, and the surrounding areas have had, Texas local governments have almost double per capita the debt that Michigan local governments have. It's a disgrace.

    In a conservative state like Texas, you'd think the legislature would rein all that in, but here's what happens. Cities and school districts are political operators at the state level. They form organizations that hire lobbyists with taxpayer money. The special interests who make money off their spending and debt donate money to politicians. That means that Sullivan gets resistance. Democrats and probably 10 percent of Republicans won't even talk to him, and probably another 20 percent of Republicans might listen to him but frequently breaks with him. Bonnen has mostly been in that 20 percent. He gets a C- in Sullivan's scorecard.

    And here's the problem with Sullivan - he's an *******. He's a bit of a dirty trickster (though I've seen worse) and very much adopts a no-compromise, tax-no-prisoners style. If you get on his bad side, you're dead to him, and he is a major player (or tries to be) in Republican primary elections. So you can be a pretty conservative Republican, but if you break with him on a local government issue because the cities in your particular district are more fiscally responsible than the rest of the state's cities and don't need state interference, he'll crap on you. That means he hates Dennis Bonnen's guts and would like nothing more than to see Bonnen shitcanned by the House. So why Bonnen was willing to talk to him like that is baffling to me. He should have seen this coming.

    As for the Trump angle, Bonnen is right. He's definitely hurting Texas Republicans in the suburbs a lot. Suburban counties that were very deep red turned purple in 2018, and many suburban areas that are in urban counties went blue for the first time in decades. Bonnen knows that he has to stop that trend, or their majority is gone.

    Some Trump defenders will point out that this was happening before Trump, and they are right. Democrats were picking up some inner suburban seats 10 years ago (especially in the Dallas area). However, it was manageable, because the growth in population (and therefore in seats) was in the suburban counties, and they were still solidly red. Trump burst open that dam, and it cost them 12 seats in the House (the equivalent of losing about 35 at the federal level). Will they regain some of those seats in 2020? Maybe, but plenty aren't coming back. Furthermore several more are in play that they narrowly held in 2018. Telling educated voters to screw off has consequences. If the Democrats stay in crazy town, the GOP will probably get some of those voters and maybe a few seats back, but it'll be a fight to keep them long term.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
  5. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    RIP Elijah Cummings

    Props to Trump for stepping outside his usual vitriol in his condolence tweet about Cummings.
     
  6. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  7. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    Now I gotta look up throuple:idk:
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  8. BrntOrngStmpeDe

    BrntOrngStmpeDe 1,000+ Posts

    I am amazed at politics some times. I was sure Trump was a one term POTUS but the Dem party's incredible lurch left and going so far as to promote Warren as the frontrunner now, has made Trump almost inevitable. Biden is no Rockstar but how can they think they can get the centrist behind the Warren platform.

    I don't like a lot of what Trump does, but it's almost a certainty that even the centrist won't like what Warren will do.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  9. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Safe to post?
     
    • poop poop x 1
  10. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Such utter nonsense

     
  11. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    I'm skeptical of the authenticity of the Katie Hill pic. Something about it looks fake.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. mchammer

    mchammer 5,000+ Posts

    Yeah, they airbrushed the most important part!
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  13. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    " .... Democrats were excited by some of the gains they made in the 2018 midterm elections. They expected the 2018 elections to be a sign that they would sweep the table in 2020 and defeat both Donald Trump and the Republican Party nation wide, ushering in a new Democrat era.

    But this year, nearly every notable election in the country has gone for the Republicans, a mini red wave that has set the Democrats back on their heels, portending doom for the Democrat’s hopes that 2020 will be a banner year for them...."

    Bad Sign for Democrats: GOP Has Won Nearly Every Election in 2019

    See also

    Trump and the Republican National Coalition have raised more than $300 million, and the President alone has $158 million cash on hand to kick off his re-election bid, more than any other sitting president at this point in his campaign.​

    Trump Destroys Fundraising Records, Rakes In $300 Million For Re-Election Campaign
     
  14. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    She seems unaware that there are photos of her "allegedly" making out with her staffer and combing said staffer's hair while naked.

    But no matter, the Dems will close ranks and the media will protect her.

     
  15. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  16. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Serious question - when did it become socially acceptable to have sex with coworkers and especially subordinates? Don't people see the pitfalls and ethical problems with it? It's one of the dumbest things you can do at work.
     
  17. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Is it socially acceptable? I don't sense it is a wide spread thing.
     
  18. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 2,500+ Posts

    It's only socially acceptable to Dems but it's always been that way.
     
  19. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Has it been socially acceptable since the 80's? Incidentally, I had lunch last week with a former Co-worker who is CIO of a 3500 employee non-profit company. He hired a Project Manager then had to fire him 1-2 weeks into his employment for a variety of reasons. On Day 1 the guy asked "what's your policy on dating in the workplace?" My buddy is in his mid-40's and was shocked that this mid-20's dude was seriously asking this question. Needless to say, that was just one of many red flags that forced them to let him go quickly. Washington is an At Will state. The fired employee then had the gall to email the CEO and threaten litigation.
     
  20. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    I guess the better question is when did people start thinking it was socially acceptable.

    It really is remarkable. It just seems like a no-brainer to me.

    And I just can't have this discussion without posting this. It was funny in the early '90s, but I think some people actually think this way.

     
    • Funny Funny x 4
  21. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  22. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

  23. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    True, but they are not supposed to be boinking their employees, are they?
    But, to be real, nothing will happen to her since she is a Dem (unless somewhere, sometime she pissed off Nancy)

    And .... if this were some white R male from Texas, they would be raising hell -- Jimmy Kimmel would be joking about it for 2 weeks and SNL would probably lead with it
     
  24. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Not only can you boink your employee, you can commit a felony to cover it up and corrupt a civil proceeding related to it. (See Bill Clinton impeachment case.)

    The mainstream media is just now starting to cover the story, and of course, it's all in the context of how decent she is for apologizing for it. I think they know that if she resigns, that seat very likely flips. Expect the media pressure to be light.
     
  25. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Which, I would argue is, by any other name, an "in kind" political contribution
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  26. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I may be the only one but I think this story is funny for multiple reasons -- not just for all the things she did but also the desperate attempt to keep the story buried

    For example, Twitter is blocking distribution of the Daily Mail article that has this info. Why? Are they really trying to prevent the American people from being allowed to see it for themselves and make their own judgement about this member of the Congress?

     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2019
  27. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    As if on cue, ABC ....
     
  28. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    If youve watched any of the Dem debates, have you ever thought, "I can ask better questions than that?"

    How about this one, to all of them -- "After you drop out of the race, what is your MSNBC show going to be called?"
     
    • Like Like x 1
  29. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    There is a direct link between this exact thinking and the 2008 financial meltdown

    It's like they have short memories , or perhaps simply no memory

    1. Dems force banks to give social justice loans

    2. Critics warn program is dangerous

    3. Dems say critics are racist

    4. World financial system nearly collapses

    5. Dems blame banks

    [10 years later]

    6. Dems force banks to give social justice loans...


     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2019
  30. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

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