2020 Senate & House

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Joe Fan, May 5, 2019.

  1. HornHuskerDad

    HornHuskerDad 5,000+ Posts

    Too many Californians migrating into Arizona and bringing their horrible voting habits with them.
     
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  2. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I believe Dems' House majority will be smallest since 1875
    A micro-majority
     
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  3. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

     
  4. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Another good call, ted (from sept 2019)

     
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  5. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    The Net is forever
    Thanks JF
     
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  6. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

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  7. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    Another reason I don’t believe the POTUS vote was correct.
     
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  8. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    I fail to see how the flipped House seats correlate to Trump state wins in any of those locales. Even if it was a matter of thousands of votes, House seat elections just don't show statewide waves towards one Presidential candidate one way or another.

    Biden will win CA by like 5MM votes, so it doesn't matter if the GOP flipped 4 or more seats there. Especially if the margins were razor-thin. Same goes for whatever they end up flipping in NY... Dems will win the Pres vote by over 1MM there.

    Dems flipped seats in NC and still lost the state.

    The only place where a flipped House seat might have mattered towards the Presidential EVs in a state Biden won would be Michigan, and it's a 50/50 seat most of the time anyhow. This whole "I trust the down ballot to tell me who won the EVs" just doesn't make sense in this year or any other.
     
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  9. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 2,500+ Posts

    Except it's never gone down this way in the history of the country.
     
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  10. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    This is not true on an easily-verified level. Parties have gained seats in the House and still lost the Presidency.
     
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  11. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    It's the exception, but it's not particularly rare. It happened in 2000, 1992, 1988, and 1960. I think it's also worth noting that the GOP didn't flip a bunch of seats in the states that are being fought over (PA, AZ, NV, GA, and MI). They got one in Michigan and lost one in Georgia. That's it. The real gains mostly happened in blue states that are still blue but not quite as blue as they were in 2018.
     
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  12. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    This is House swing map for just 2018 thru 2020
    GA sort of stands out
    Can enlarge by clicking once

    [​IMG]
     
  13. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    What’s up with Tex panhandle?
     
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  14. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    agree Nash
    Those aren't the West Texas people I know
     
  15. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    These are R gains in state legis -- 137 state house gains and 11 state senate gains with a few still to be decided

    Arkansas (+3)
    California (+1)
    Florida (+5)
    Idaho (+2)
    Illinois (+1)
    Indiana (+4)
    Iowa (+6)
    Kansas (+3)
    Kentucky (+14)
    Maine (+7)
    Minnesota (+5)
    Montana (+9)
    Nevada (+3)
    New Hampshire (+46)
    New Mexico (+1)
    North Carolina (+4)
    North Dakota (+1)
    Ohio (+3)
    Oklahoma (+5)
    Oregon (+2)
    Rhode Island (+1)
    South Carolina (+3)
    South Dakota (+3)
    Vermont (+3)
    West Virginia (+18)
    Wyoming (+2)

    Republicans have veto proof majorities in:
    Alabama
    Arkansas
    Idaho
    Indiana
    Kentucky
    Missouri
    North Dakota
    Ohio
    Oklahoma
    South Dakota
    Tennessee
    Utah
    West Virginia
    Wyoming

    Democrats lost veto proof majorities in
    Vermont
    Nevada
     
  16. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    My guess is that Dems in the panhandle came out in droves to vote in 2020 instead of 2018. Wouldn’t surprise me that they just got the news that Trump was president in 2020 and wasn’t aware of this fact in 2018. Probably takes 2 years for news to travel to the panhandle.
     
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  17. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    MC,

    Are you suggesting that they let the cattle vote?
     
  18. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Well, there is that too. Wonder if Dems in CO crossed the border to vote for Biden.
     
  19. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    You had me thinking that David Eller was a Mark White Democrat when he was appointed Chairman of BOR at aTm. David's company owned that huge feedlot up around Amarillo. Thought maybe the boys up there registered a few hundred thousand cows to vote.
     
  20. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    R Miller Meeks wins Iowa-2 in a landslide!

    (6 votes)
     
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  21. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    The richest member of Congress (worth between $800M-$1B) "knows what it feels like waiting on that paycheck". WTF???
     
  22. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Husker
    It is clear You have never started a business, worried about making payroll and felt the reponsibility of signing the FRONT of checks for your employees with families then you likely can't understand she did not start out worth a billion.
    Amusing that you think all rich people have always been rich. Think people like Gates etc started out super rich? I am sure they sweated out making payroll many times.

    I am sure you are a good little employee who never had to worry if your check would clear
     

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  23. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    While you want to talk about me I'd kindly ask you to please point out what in Kelly Loeffler's bio that shows she ever had to worry about her next paycheck? While she worked in Investor Relations she married money when she married the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, a company she worked at. She literally worked for big companies all the way until she married wealth. Now she flies around on private planes.
     
  24. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Man she sounds like a Democrat.
     
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  25. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Kelly was grew up on a farm . Every farmer and family understands the vagaries of farming.
     
  26. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Maybe before she was banging her boss?
     
  27. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Kamala II?
     
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  28. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Yep, it's hard to rip Kamala and give her a pass. She did marry her boss, so she did make an "honest man" out of him. Of course, nobody could make Willie Brown honest. But overall, they are similar. Specifically, the most consequential move they made was having sex with very powerful men to whom they were not married at the relevant time. Both are pretty unimpressive and unremarkable beyond that - just mediocre women of mediocre accomplishment. The only big difference is that the media pretends that Kamala is impressive because they like her politics. If she was a Republican, they'd view her no better than they view Loeffler.
     
  29. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Ill state politics -- Looks like Michael Madigan is finally out as speaker of the Illinois House. He is basically the poster boy for Democratic Party politics. Even with many of his buddies under indictment, he was running again as speaker.

    This guy the longest-serving leader of any state or federal body in the history of the US (from 1983 to now). He is Chicago - can you imagine the decades of corruption? They called him "the Velvet Hammer" and "Real Governor of Illinois."

    Quote --
    "the pile of political corpses outside Madigan's Statehouse door of those who tried to beat him one way or another is a mile high and a mile wide."
     
  30. horninchicago

    horninchicago 5,000+ Posts

    Yep, Feds finally came down on him.
     

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