I found this a little odd, so its at their place and a rivalry, but I was truely expecting to see a pick'em or Texas -1 with the way the ags had played recently....i guess this is their superbowl again. Anyone going to play it? betus.com 597 Texas +3 -110 598 Texas A&M -3 -110
From my TA post: They don't just pull these spreads out of the air, they are all based on power ratings that aren't going to swing too much after any one game. In their last 3 games, Texas covered easy at home vs TTech, didn't come close to covering against Colorado, and barely covered against OkState -- so their power rating likely didn't change much. In A&M's last 3 games, they covered against OkState, and didn't come close to covering against Baylor or Kansas State -- so their power rating likely went down 2-3 points. 1/19: Texas 17.5pt favorites at home vs CU (would have been 13.5pt favorites on a neutral court) 1/21: Texas 3pt favorites at Oklahoma State (would have been 7pt favorites on a neutral court) 1/26: Texas 10.5pt favorites at home vs TTech (would have been 6.5pt favorites on a neutral court) 1/12: A&M 19.5pt favorites at home vs Colorado (would have been 15.5pt favorites on a neutral court) 1/16: A&M 5pt favorites at TTech (would have been 9pt favorites on a neutral court) 1/26: A&M 1.5pt favorites at OkState (would have been 5.5pt favorites on a neutral court). Looking at their common opponents, there was a 2pt difference between how the two teams were favored against Colorado, 1.5pt difference agaisnt Ok State, and 2.5pt difference against Texas Tech.... So basically oddsmakers had us as 2pts better than Texas coming into conference play. A&M 2pts better coming into conference play, last 3 games show that Texas is about the the same and A&M is a few points worse... So lets say Texas -1 or a PK on a neutral court. Home court worth 4 points, so thats where you get A&M -3 / A&M -4.
Home-field in NFL is typically worth 3 points. Home-field in College FB is typically worth 4 points. Home-court in NBA/College Hoops is typically 4 points.
