At 19-12, we need at least 16 more wins for an at-large

Discussion in 'Baseball' started by giveemhell, Apr 5, 2018.

  1. giveemhell

    giveemhell 500+ Posts

    During the McNeese State broadcast, Keith Moreland suggested that the Horns would need to go at least 16-7 in their final 23 games to have a shot at an at-large bid (assuming we don’t win the conference tourney), with 35 regular season wins being the magic number (although the team snuck into the dance with 34 regular season wins last year). He further suggested that we could only afford to lose maybe one more of the remaining 8 non-conference games (which includes a game against aggy next Tuesday in College Station). Here’s hoping the team maintains its focusness this weekend against the cat-skinners…
     
  2. Son of a Son

    Son of a Son 1,000+ Posts

    If our pitching doesn't settle in, the rest won't matter. We've definitely improved on the stick side of the ball, but not near enough to erase some of these abysmal pitching performances.
     
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  3. Htown77

    Htown77 2,500+ Posts

    At this point last year, we were 22-12. Right now we are 21-12.. so we are currently on pace to do the same as last year.
     
  4. giveemhell

    giveemhell 500+ Posts

    I'll let the rest of you nit-picking ******** pick nits. :smile1:
    In the meantime, the Horns did exactly what they needed to do this weekend with the sweep. At 22-12, we need at least 13 more wins...
     
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  5. FWHORN

    FWHORN 5,000+ Posts

    Huge pair of road trips this week to Collieville and Norman. 2-2 would be great 3-1 would put Horns in line to possibly host a regional.
     
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  6. Htown77

    Htown77 2,500+ Posts

    We have 8 games we should win against the following:
    UT-Rio Grande Valley, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Houston, Texas State.

    We have 6 tossup games against the following: @West Virginia, TCU (TCU has been a huge disappointment this year and does not appear to be as good as they have been in recent years).

    We have 7 games we should lose against the following: @A&M, @OU, @Texas Tech.

    Also we have the Big 12 Tournament. We should be able to win 13.
     
  7. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    aggy and ou will be struggles. However, sand aggy is only 5-4 in the Conference including losing 2 to Baylor - Texas should have a fighting chance to win the series.
     
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  8. BevoBeef

    BevoBeef 250+ Posts

    Before this weekend sweep, UT was projected at midseason as a 2-seed by Baseball America and a 3-seed by D1Baseball. This analysis is not strictly by W-L records. RPI is just starting to gel and indicate a little bit.

    At this time the RPI for the Longhorns is #31, which is a little ahead of OU and OSU, but (surprisingly) behind WVa. It is still too early to take any of these projections seriously because anything can happen with the parity we have in the Big12 race. Based on listening to radio interviews of Pierce, it sounds like the team is at a good level of confidence, which is a large part of projecting what will happen. The sweep this weekend meant more to the team's morale than it does to the records for getting to be a regional host. Last week's wins raised the RPI for us by a few positions.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 9, 2018
  9. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 1,000+ Posts

    What was our record last year heading into the Big 12 tournament?
     
  10. Buck-Horn

    Buck-Horn 250+ Posts

    34-20 & 11-12 in conference
     
  11. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 1,000+ Posts

    We've got 21 games left to play. If we just go 1 game over .500 at 11-10 over that stretch, that would put us at 33-22 before the tournament. That doesn't seem like too much to ask and, I predict, gets us in provided we win at least one game in the tourney.

    Keith was looking at a different schedule than me if he said we had 23 games left to play during McNeese. The count at that time would have been 26 including the McNeese game, which I assume was not over when he made that statement.
     
  12. FWHORN

    FWHORN 5,000+ Posts

    Last year Texas was 11-12 in conference, with nine wins already a winning record in conference is eminently attainable even with four tough series left. Out of conference its aggy and UH that will be tough but both are winnable, losing any of other 7 would have to be called a disappointment. This team is presently on a roll but this week on the road will be a strong indicator of how things may go rest of year.
     
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  13. giveemhell

    giveemhell 500+ Posts

    My bad, Keith actually made his comment during the Texas A&M Corpus Christi broadcast, and he was assuming Texas was going to win that game (Texas had the game well in hand when he made his comment). His point, though, was that Texas needed at least 35 wins prior to the B12 tournament to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid. Doesn't mean it's impossible with only 34 wins (see last season), just that the odds are dicier with less than 35...
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2018
  14. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Regardless of record, I want the team to play better during second half of season than last year.
     
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  15. Buck-Horn

    Buck-Horn 250+ Posts

    We finished the season last year @ 14-8 starting with the OU series at home. The killer was being swept at TCU. Other than that, I don't see us finishing any better than last year.
     

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