This may all go into a huge stalemate for a while. A few observations: 1. The time to raid the Big 12 was last year, when the old deal was expiring. That is why CU and Neb were able to get out by compromising their exit fees and no suits were filed against Pac 10 or B1G. Now that the Big 12-2 members just signed a huge new deal, the potential ramifications of a tortious interferance suit are far more dire. aTm was STUPID to sign a billion dollar multi-year deal if their real desire was to go to the SEC. They should have jsut left last year. 2. The SEC handed Baylor (and ISU and...) an effective veto over aTm joining. They would only do that if (a) they were very concerned about the potential downside in a big suit (i.e. they have unclean hands and were wooing aTm when the ink was barely dry, and are worried what all their emails will show) or (b) they don't want aTm that bad and are not willing to risk even a marginal suit if it means years of litigation expense. From a "art of war" sense, its much better to ask forgiveness than permission. Having given Baylor this veto right, it makes it much harder take it back and makes a tortious interference suit more likely of success. 3. The reason Baylor waited to act as it did was because until this weekend everyone was promising them that the Big 12 would survive. That changed when Boren and Stoops fired their "screw you guys, we are in charge and are going to the Pac 12" bullet this weekend. Once it became clear that UT and OU were either lying to them or were being (at best) overly optimistic about Big 12 expansion prospects, Baylor called BS on everybody and said we are not going down so easily. Unlike UT or OU, they stand to lose hundreds of millions over the next decade if the Big 12-2 implodes, and they don't have any fallback options. 4. I have no idea what pressure aTm can bring to bear as long as the SEC is requiring advance waivers from 9 schools, several of whom have ZERO incentive to give such a waiver. The SEC has really put aTm in a terrible bind. They can ***** and moan all they want, but at the end of the day they have very little leverage over Baylor. Moroever, having justified their SEC move all along as "only doing what is best for us", they look a little silly screaming hysterically about Baylor doing what is best for them. 5. The Pac 12 is in the same boat as the SEC. If aTm spins in circles for a while and OU and OSU bolt, the Pac 12 will be subject to the same kind of lawsuit as the SEC. Those kinds of claims have defenses, but the outcome would be anything but certain, and discovery would reveal all of the email traffic between ther Pac 12 and OU. If there were sufficient promises/inducements, that could be problematic for the Pac 12, especially in a case filed in Waco before a Baylor Law alum. That is why I suspect the Pac 12 will insits on similar waivers or other cover. In short, its a very fluid situation, but I am beginning to think that little ol' Baylor just tripped the mother of all circuit breakers on the conference realignment sweepstakes, at least for another year or two. There will need to be extra security at the aTm v. Baylor game this year.
I agree with all your points. There is a contract. There is such a thing as tortious interference. There is no reason to give up a legal claim for damages that is valid. There is no reason for the SEC to recklessly invite A&M.
Time to sit back... kick up the boots... and let the rest of them fight it out. Texas can just sit back and watch without getting dirty. When the brawl is over. What ever conference is left overt that appeals will be looked at. I am not worried about all this drama.
Zona - excellent post sir.... Aggy insecurity, greed, lack of foresight and planning for contingencies are all on display. (This is who you are getting SEC - ya still sure 'bout all this? ) hookem:
Baylor's in a fight for its survival as a BCS school, and their only leverage over A&M (and possibly other conference schools) is their right to prove damages in a court of law. They are not going to waive that right for free. I can't believe anyone, even an Aggy, would expect them to. A&M is going to have to offer them something that is worth them dropping from a BCS conference to something like the WAC and the loss in revenue that would entail. I have no clue what that would be. If its money, its going to have to be a whole wad of it. Make it rain, aggies! Hahahaha.
As your mother always told you, there is a right way to do things and a wrong way. Instead of handling the breakup of the Big 12 in private and reaching an agreed settlement, aggy's penis envy blows everything open and implicates the SEC. The Kansas schools, Missouri, Baylor and ISU are stupid if they agree to anything right now. (That said, Kansas and Missouri do have options so they have to be careful.) The other 3 (plus the States of Missouri, Iowa and Kansas) have nothing to lose and should hold out until they extract funds from aggy. As long as ou, Texas and the PAC stay quite, this is an argument between the five, aggy and the SEC. After that, in private the leaving 4 can settle with the other 5.
Baylor stands to lose HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS over the next decade if the Big 12-2. They have ZERO chance to mitigate that risk by joining another BCS conference with a similar pay structure, not to mention all of the alumni giving and other benefits they will lose over time by being relegated to a mid-major conference. The exact same thing goes for ISU, KSU and any other Big 12-2 school that is worried about being left out of the superconference realignment (see e.g. KU, UM and maybe even OSU and TTech). That is a lot of schools to pay off. Even if you could get them to take 10 cents on the dollar, you are still talking about $50M dollars or more. If I were Baylor, it would take a lot more than $50M for me individually to agree to be demoted to C-USA. I think I'd rather hold on to my veto, get a few years of Big 12-2 paydays under my belt, and then hope that things have changed sufficiently by the time this game heats up again that they will be in a better position than they are now (i.e. more winning seasons, Leg is in session, maybe a new Governor with big hair that is a former bear, etc). The SEC has really screwed aTm over. Had they just taken them, Baylor (and ISU and KSU) would have been left with a lawsuit of uncertain prospects that at best would have been settled in a few years for 7 or low 8 figured, and may have been dismissed on the pleadings before any trial. Now every Big 12-2 school has a veto over them, and they are in a much worse bargaining position.
There is absolutely nothing else to do in Waco but go to a football game and church on Sunday. Can you imagine all those aggy Baptists sitting among the Baylor Baptists next Sunday? I giggle heavily at the thought of those conversations. The Rev may have to issue ear plugs when the F bombs override his sermon.
Why should Texas sign it either. A contract is a contract and we should uphold our end as well. Allow the LHN to grow while putting up with A&M a few more years. This new twist makes Aggy look stupid. We did just sit back and enjoy.
So question, was the OU move last weekend a tactical one to force this situation into the open and get the forgotten five to be the heavies and save the Big 12-2. OU makes more money and has better road to NC in this conference, why would they want to leave.
I agree Zona... this is a Multi-Million $$$ potential break-up for Baylor. I would hold their feet to fire for Baylor's demotion to C-USA'esque conference futility! Little brother always finds a way to f**k up things... and the ATM has managed to do that.
Ok, here's a new thought for you. In return for their blessing to let a$m join the SUC, Baylor gets to be the 14th team. Hoooo -ahhh!!!! That would be a truly outstanding mind-f*ck! lol
Gotta hand it to Baylor if they step up and block aggy from leaving, they have more clout than I thought! I had no idea that the Big 12-2 schools had veto power over the aggy move. Zona's post is pretty good. I would have to agree that if Baylor sued they would probably win....course I'm no lawyer and don't know how that would work, but anything to screw the aggys over is okay in my book.
Thank you for that but to be honest, I am not paying attention to any rumors or breaking stories about this stuff. I am over it, I think. I will just wait till it is official and not worry about cutting edge info. There are too many people with too many sources with agendas nowadays. I take a step back, let the dust settle and sift it out then. Put a fork in me.
Congrats to Baylor et al----amazing the Ags claim they have been derailed---guess they forgot they signed contracts and there is no reason Baylor or anyone else should allow Ags to walk on those contracts which were entered into only a year ago--only Ags could mess things up this bad--classic--lol--quite frankly I was looking forward to getting rid of the Ags but this mess playing out is nothing short of hilarious..only Ags could get things this screwed up!
