Bedford??

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by hornpharmd, Nov 5, 2015.

  1. hornpharmd

    hornpharmd 5,000+ Posts

    Vance is a Longhorn and he is an entertaining energetic coach. He has a history that shows he is a very good Secondary coach. He does not have the resume to show him to be a good/great DC. He deserved a shot and got it. Now looking back at the last nearly 2 years of results, does he deserve to continue as DC for UT??
     
  2. Detective Shilala

    Detective Shilala 2,500+ Posts

    I have never been 100% sold on him. Then again, the offense and special teams have been so bad that its hard to give the defense anything worse than a C.
    Whenever they have had some help, they seem up to the task.
    This year they definitely play better when we have a lead. (the whole team does obviously. the offense because the passing game is a grease fire)
     
  3. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    With a good showing last year for the most part, and much improvement shown as this year progressed, I wouldn't be bothered (at the moment) by retaining Bedford.

    The defense allowed 315 ypg average over the last three. ISU wasn't a solid performance, but there's little doubt the offense hung them out to dry.

    We had 11 real offensive possessions. Of those 11 possessions, our offense had seven 3-and-outs, another four play drive, and an INT. We had one drive all night that lasted over 3 minutes. Seven were under 2 minutes.

    Only giving up 24 points after that level of offensive incompetence isn't all that awful. If we were moving the ball and keeping pace, it's likely they'd have been held to 20 or less...below their scoring average. That's good enough defense to win.

    Fortunately we still play 2 of the top 3 Big 12 scoring offenses before season's end. We'll have the ability to make a solid judgement on Bedford after Tech and Baylor.

    If the defense gets blasted for 500+ yards and 38+ points by ND, Cal, TCU, Tech, and Baylor...then there's real cause for concern. 42% of your schedule shouldn't be thrashing your defense like that. The first three could be seen as growing pains, but Tech and Baylor will occur after 10+ games experience. I guess we will see.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 5, 2015
  4. aUTfan

    aUTfan 500+ Posts

    our schedule was probably the toughest in the country, add to that how poor the offense was and it's hard to point at the defense when they had to be on the field so much against such strong teams. he gets a pass and i think he can coach defense but needs another year just like strong.
     
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  5. caryhorn

    caryhorn 5,000+ Posts

    This describes one of the most inept offensive outputs in my memory, when up against a losing team. And my memory is pretty good, and goes back a long way.
     
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  6. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    I'd say the defense is about where you'd expect it to be considering all the youth and the talent gap on the d-line. I don't always like some of Bedford's approaches, but all things considered, I think they've done OK. Certainly not great, or even good enough. But I've seen enough to know he's capable of coaching a quality defense.
     
  7. majorwhiteapples

    majorwhiteapples 5,000+ Posts

    I cannot understand or even comprehend the number of 3rd and longs the opponents have converted this year.........Bedford is not a DC.....his LB scheme is the same as ole Bull Reese, put the LB on the LOS and let him go.........didn't work well then and it is not working well now. If the LB hits the right gap, great play, if not 6,7,8 yards a DT is tacking from behind.

    Last year we had 4 guys that are now playing the league and another one that is on a practice squad on that defense, even Manny Diaz could have coached them......is it too soon for Manny Diaz references?
     
  8. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Yeah and that defense had some pretty good outings, too. For the most part, it only got lit up because they got tired from being out on the field for entire halves due to the offensive offense.

    He didn't mug the linebackers last year nearly as much because he had a DL that could get a pass rush more consistently. Sometimes it's not even that they're supposed to be up that close, they're just not timing their blitzes well.

    In terms of third and long, it's been obvious from Game 1 that his priority is not getting beat over the top - which btw, he's been very successful at preventing. Problem is when you have young defenders and non-athletic safeties, that sometimes means your coverage is softer than it should be. And so you're seeing some poor plays on third and long.
     
  9. Detective Shilala

    Detective Shilala 2,500+ Posts

    Damn aak09 you are hard core.
     
  10. EDT

    EDT 500+ Posts

    So Bedford calls out or even yells at the fans and players for not showing up. I just want to know who yells at him when he doesn't show up? Whoever it is needs to be much louder.
     
  11. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    One interesting note...as of today's stats...Bedford's young defense has/will face 5 of the top 10 scoring offenses in the nation.

    (1) BU - 61.1 ppg , tbd
    (2) TCU - 48.9 ppg , we allowed 50 (fail)
    (4) TTU - 47.3 ppg , tbd
    (7) OU - 45.6 ppg , we allowed 17 (pass)
    (8) OSU - 44.0 ppg , we allowed 30 (pass)

    It's worth noting those teams have a combined record of 35-5...with TTU owning 4 of the losses. Offense firepower is king in the college game, especially the Big 12.

    So far the defense has passed two of those top 10 offensive tests and failed another. OU was a clear victory, and OSU was handed some of their 30 points by bogus refs.

    This further cements our performance against Tech and Baylor will tell us plenty about where Bedford's defense stands and if he's in danger.

    Below are the scoring results for Bedford's defenses under Strong:

    2015 (UT) - tbd, but should end over 30 ppg
    2014 (UT) - 23.3 ppg
    2013 (UL) - 12.4 ppg
    2012 (UL) - 23.8 ppg
    2011 (UL) - 19.2 ppg
    2010 (UL) - 18.7 ppg

    Strong is a defensive guy and had 5 straight years under 24 ppg with Bedford, The new Aggy DC is giving up 24.6 ppg. I still think Bedford is safe with Strong regardless of this year. Watson was clearly the weak link coordinator between the two, past and present.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 5, 2015
  12. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Brad,

    Thank you for the statistical analysis and the work you put into it. Unfortunately, comparing the Loserville defensive accomplishments against a group of teams that aren't as good offensively as any HS team coached by Todd Dodge to those of an SEC West schedule isn't remotely close to fair. Their are better offenses in the Westlake/Lake Travis district than there were across the field from Loserville.

    I am not a Chavis fan, and believe that the Aggies are about to find out that Chavis is just another in a their line of hiring failures on the defensive side of the ball. Chavis is going to bring back Aggie nightmares of Bennett and Torbush.
     
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  13. MudHorn

    MudHorn Admin Moderator

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  14. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Wow, nice job Mr Austin, hope our boys are as detailed in execution this Sat as your post.
     
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  15. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    Also the D scored 14 of their own points there too.
     
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  16. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    I agree Louisville is a far cry from defending Big 12 or SEC offenses. While at Louisville there were some notable games (tough OOC, bowls, ranked teams)...

    2010 Oregon State - lost 28-35
    2010 S. Miss (Bowl) - won 31-28
    2011 #24 W. Va - lost 38-35
    2011 NC St. (bowl) - lost 24-31
    2012 N. Carolina - won 39-34
    2012 #4 Florida (bowl) - won 33-23
    2013 UCF (conf. lead) - lost 35-38
    2013 Miami (bowl) - won 36-9

    Looking at higher profile performances at Louisville, it's kind of a mixed bad for Bedford.

    The defensive scoring average of all 8 games was 29 ppg.

    5 of those offenses averaged above 30 ppg and we're pretty good, he held two below 30.

    5 of 8 games his defense allowed 30+ points, with 4 resulting in losses.

    He held Florida (27 ppg) to 23 and Miami (36 ppg) to 9 in bowl games.

    As a whole there was at least some legitimate cause for concern in his big game abilities before arriving at Texas.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2015
  17. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Thought I'd look into these because it's lunch time and... well, why not.

    2010 Oregon State: TD drives of 23, 37, 40 and 46 yards (with a fifth going for 83). Non-scoring drives were for 3, 6, 20, 4, 5, 58, 7 and -3 yards. 319 yards total offense.
    2010 So Miss: Gave up 21 first-half points including a 62 yard TD run. Gave up 396 total yards
    2011 W. Va. - Gave up 410 passing yards to a team led by Tayvon Austin and Gino Smith, who I think we all remember. Basically a shootout.
    2011 NC State - Gave up 329 total yards, 24 offensive points, Louisville threw three picks.
    2012 UNC - Louisville led 36-7 at the half, and looks like they might have fallen asleep - 20 fourth-quarter points given up. NC State had 47 yards rushing, threw for 363 - yep, they were in comeback mode for sure. Had 49 yards offense before their first TD drive at the end of the half, then had TD drives of 79, 65, 5 and 93 before Louisville held on downs and then ran out the clock. (I wish I'd watched that game, that sounds like fun :D )
    2012 Florida - Gators had 286 yards offense, Louisville led 33-10 and Florida scored two TDs in the fourth quarter, getting 162 of their yards on those two drives. Basically when Florida wasn't driving 60 or so yards to score, they did nothing. Sounds like a little of them being awful and a little of Louisville being really good.
    2013 UCF: UCF goes off for 21 in the third quarter and 10 more in the fourth for the win. One TD came after getting the ball at the Louisville 15. Scoring drives of 71, 74, 15, 56, 52 and 75.
    2013 Miami: Canes get 334 yards of offense, 14 yards rushing (68 yards lost rushing, 39 lost on four sacks). Three drives of longer than five plays in the game, one was 13 plays, 41 yards and ended on downs. Ouch... They never started a drive in Louisville territory and only twice outside their own 35. (Nothing to do with Bedford's defensive effort, that just really jumped out at me!)

    So yeah, a mixed bag - and I'd guess that if you take any good defensive coordinator and cherry pick the "big" games, you'd see something like that. I'd say I see more good than bad there.
     
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  18. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    My Lord, PH. :smile1: That's taking it to an expert level. Nice job. I'm gonna take your word for it as you've clearly left no stone unturned.

    That's how I research stats for betting...evaluating numbers is incomplete without the how. Surrendering 38 points can include gifting two pick-6's, which changes everything.

    Thanks for painting a detailed picture behind those numbers.
     
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  19. HornSwoggler

    HornSwoggler 1,000+ Posts

    I am not a defensive genius so i do not know what Bedford needs to do but these are the results I want.

    Pressure the passer. We are getting better IMO.
    Regularly stop runs for less than 5 yards. We are lacking.
    Hold on to the guy being tackled - we are better this year than last.
    Have DBs within 5 yards of receivers they are covering. We fail at this regularly.
    Avoid stupid penalties. It only takes one to ruin a good game.

    I feel Bedford's history gets him a pass this year. I am most concerned about the inconsistency. I want to see steady improvement not total regression at times.
     
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  20. hornpharmd

    hornpharmd 5,000+ Posts

    3rd down and run D have been the problems for me. Seems like our D should be stacking the DL at times to stop the run first. 259 yards given up against Iowa St.....seriously!!
     
  21. gahornphan

    gahornphan 500+ Posts

    If we were in a game where this defense HAD to make a stop against ANYBODY like the defense did against USC, do you trust they could? If Nick Rose was asked to kick a game winning kick FROM ANY DISTANCE, would you trust that he could? Fourth down we need a half yard, do we have the line/back, that could get that yard, or a qb who could make that quick pinpoint pass in a pressure situation? No to all those. Meaning, we either score first and dominate a team, or we lose.
     
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  22. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Even if Bedford deserves a pass, a likely 5-7 CS should still keep an eye out for any clear upgrades on the market. After all, his entire questionable staff owns a big part in what put him on shaky ground and two losing records.

    Another losing season would likely be his last here and send his career on a downward trajectory. The time for valuing familiarity over superior coaching ability is over.

    Can't see many respected major programs wanting a coach after 3 losing seasons with the resources Texas has. Miami was the exception and they'd already have a new coach.

    No coach on CS's staff is beyond replacing if someone much better is interested. Doesn't mean Bedford deserves to be fired, just means an upgrade improved our chances.
     

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