Best Scenario for MNC?

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by OUsucksATMblows, Nov 12, 2008.

  1. OUsucksATMblows

    OUsucksATMblows 250+ Posts

    I'm sure this has been brought up somewhere on this board the last few weeks but let's assume:

    1. OU Destroys Tech. Let's say they win by 20+ and Tech drops horribly in the BCS. They win out and still have 1 loss but their BCS ranking is bad due to a bad loss late and human voters put them around 6-7. A 1 loss Tech team drops behind USC, FLORIDA, TEXAS right???....

    2. OSU beats OU to end the season.

    3. Tech goes to CCG and wins or loses. But even with a win they don't move up to the top 2 in the BCS.

    4. Florida crushes bama or bama beats FLA, doesn't really matter since either one will prob be in the top 2 after that game if they both win out going into the SEC CCG.

    Are we in? I say yes. I think this is the best secanrio for us getting in. And I think it's the very best possible scenario.

    Thoughts? Am I overlooking anything?

    There must be somewhere where I went wrong....
     
  2. Nordberg

    Nordberg 1,000+ Posts

    The most likely scenario, IMO, is Tech or OU losing in the Big 12 Championship game, and we play the SEC champ.

    So in other words, we have a better chance of playing in the national championship game than the Big 12 championship game.

    **** the BCS.
     
  3. EasternHorn

    EasternHorn 500+ Posts

    I agree that both of those scenarios work. I also like the idea of OU beating TT and us winning the 3-way tiebreaker and winning the CCG.

    Or, what if Tech wins out and UF beats 'bama and we don't get jumped by the gators. Doesn't that mean a rematch with Tech?

    I think there are actually a lot of ways for us to get to the NCG but the probability of any one of them on an individual basis is not great and we still have this uncertainty about being jumped by OU and/or Florida.
     
  4. OrangeChipper

    OrangeChipper 1,000+ Posts


     
  5. netslave

    netslave 1,000+ Posts

    ACK! Just win our games. If it's in the cards, we'll make it.
     
  6. borna_horn

    borna_horn 1,000+ Posts

    Everyone takes it as a given that we would be above Tech in a tiebreaker but not if OU loses to OSU the next week, putting Tech in the Big 12 Championship game. Why? Will the voters suddenly decide to vault Tech because OU loses?

    Think about it this way: Texas was a unanimous #1 in the polls after beating OU and Missouri. Yet Tech beats Texas and then trounces OSU, and they are still #2 behind Alabama.

    People still do not believe in Tech. If they lose to OU, these doubts will be substantiated. They will not be ranked ahead of Texas.

    By contrast, OU is almost even in the polls with Texas despite having lost to us. 1-loss OU is a much bigger threat than Texas.

    I think it will be really interesting in the end if Tech loses decisively to OU but still wins the conference. I think a lot of people will want to rank Texas ahead if them, thus vaulting us into the national championship game. I think some people, and they would have a point, would see Tech being the champion as semantics since both Texas and Tech would have 1 loss.

    It will be a beauty contest, and in that arena I like our chances against Tech much better than against OU.
     
  7. tholly

    tholly 1,000+ Posts

    I would add, should 11-1 Tech advance to ccg after close loss to oU, that means o$u beat oU dropping oU back below Tech and o$u back in top 10. I'd say Tex #3, Tech #5, oU #8, o$u #9, Mizz #11. With 5 top 11 teams in conference Tex 3-1/ o$u 2-2/ oU 1-2/ Tech 2-1 BUT a chance to match Tex at 3-1 with shot at Mizzu in ccg with entire nation watching and last impression. With an impressive win I'm afraid that would open up a Tex-USC-Tech who knows type vote. Then maybe the head to head comes into play again.
     
  8. olevet

    olevet < 25 Posts

    We Need to win Out
     
  9. logger

    logger < 25 Posts

    Florida will roll against Bama. The Tide has almost no quality depth, and the Gators have more speed than most NFL teams.
     
  10. homer

    homer 500+ Posts


     
  11. Lake_Travis_Horn

    Lake_Travis_Horn 500+ Posts

    As I posted on another thread -

    The best scenario for us, but it takes all 3 to happen, is:

    Bama loss to Auburn or MSU
    Bama win over UF
    TT over OU.

    I don't know how we're not #2 in that scenario, and if there was ever a game that deserved a rematch, it was a last second win in a fluke play by the home team in a night game over a team that lost a key player (QC) for most of the game (said player now being back playing).
     
  12. OUsucksATMblows

    OUsucksATMblows 250+ Posts

    Laketravis,

    That may be the BEST scenario, but it's also the most UNLIKELY scenario.

    The original scenario on this thread is highly more likely to happen IMO.
     
  13. YoLaDu

    YoLaDu Guest

    THe same people that argue that we would win the three way BCS tie between OU (11-1) and Texas (11-1) because of head to head would have a hard time justifying the O.P. scenario.

    Tech's resume in the OP scenario.

    11-1 Regular Season
    Big12 Champion
    Beat Texas head to head

    If i was a Tech fan, i would be pissed if Texas (11-1, 2nd in the Big12 South, lossed to Tech) went to the MNC game and Tech was left out.

    As a Texas fan, I would elated, but I could understand the uproar over it.
     
  14. borna_horn

    borna_horn 1,000+ Posts

    This is something people time and again forget about the BCS. There is no BCS god with a magic wand to make things fair. A lot of it is out of people´s control.

    Tech would be behind us in the BCS computers if they lose to OU. Nobody has power over that.

    So not only must they beat us in the human polls, it must be decisive. If OU beats Tech by say a TD or more, the polls the following week would likely look like:

    1. Alabama
    2. Florida
    3. Texas
    4. OU
    5. USC
    6. Tech

    Maybe OU would move up to 3, but it wouldn´t matter if they lost to OSU. Fact is Tech would fall to 6. They would have to drop.

    So the next week, OU loses, and people are suddenly going to reward Tech for backing into the Big 12 Championship??? Texas beat OU and we are still behind them in one of the polls! I just don´t see the voters suddenly deciding to artificially move Tech up the polls just because the team that just beat them lost too.

    So say Tech then beats Missouri. There is an uproar that they should play for the MNC. Some agree, maybe some don´t. The point is Tech would have to be decisively in front of Texas in the human polls to make up for being behind Texas in the computers.

    I just don`t see it happening. I don´t see how Tech suddenly gets all this love from the voters when they don`t even have it now. They deserve to be 1st, but still are 2nd.
     
  15. vtaenz

    vtaenz 500+ Posts

    Oh a repeat of what we were seeing in the '06-'07 season. Texas was rolling and the best one loss team before k state happened. Florida also had one loss but Urban Meyer went on his bitching campaign a bit early asking why Texas should get to play Ohio State again?

    They had their chance, same thing with Michigan when that almost became a reality. So here we go again if it happens that you have Texas Tech number 1 and Texas number 2. Why should Texas get another shot at Tech? I guarantee it, we will hear some rumblings from Meyer if this scenario becomes a very likely possibility.

    Didn't us beating Nebraska in 1996 allow Florida to play Florida State again in a bowl game? I don't remember the specifics of that, anyone care to comment?
     

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