CalExit and Chances of turning Red

Just a funny article here. More serious question is, what kind of chance is there that California would turn Red by 2024? California is much more conservative then people think, but not so much where there is a critical mass to motivate conservatives to vote. Dormant, might be a good description. You can argue that California is more conservative than Virginia is liberal...which has been blue the last several elections.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nat...ornia-secede-gains-momentum-article-1.2957526

 

I don't even know where to begin. First, I thought Texans were arrogant in relation to other state residents but this guy is even worse than the proudest Texan. Second, does he even realize that California is reliant on one of the basic necessities of life that California has little of...water. The majority of southern California water comes from Lake Mead in Nevada. Third, do they realize that they risk the possibility of losing all federal aid.

Unlike Texas, they run huge deficits and I would wager they would be bankrupt within 10 years of succession. The difference between a Texas succession and a California one is that Texas could actually survive and thrive without being a part of the Union. I'm not advocating that we should but we have many more resources to draw upon than Cali-forn-i-a.

Just in oil we kickass compared to everybody else in 'Merica and when compared to California...it's no contest.



I say let them go and we can watch them fail miserably.

 

Is that really the case?

Or is it more that the state is so much of a mess that the moderates are turning conservative in reaction?

Or is it more that so much of the state is so far left that the moderates there look conservative in comparison?

 

Zero chance of turning red by 2024. It probably is more conservative than the presidential election numbers suggest just as Texas is more liberal than the numbers suggest. When a state becomes lopsided, the national parties and interest groups find little reason to invest in party building in that state, and its lopsidedness snowballs. However, the demographics and culture in California suggest that it is strongly liberal, and that liberalism gets reinforced by a partisan media, nutty public and higher education, and a few local governments that are completely insane. I don't see any of that changing in the foreseeable future.

To see the state flip to the red, there would have to be some kind of major calamity in the state that would shake the people to their core and make them rethink their political assumptions. That could be caused by a couple of things. First, if you had a major economic catastrophe, that could change minds, but a deep recession wouldn't be anywhere near enough. If you saw the state's unemployment rate surge to 18 or 20 percent and then stay there for a couple of years, that might do it. Second, a large scale terrorist attack might change enough minds. A crazy shooter wouldn't be anywhere near enough. It would take a 9/11-scale attack to even make a dent, and to really flip things, it would take something like a small nuke going off in Dodger Stadium and killing 40,000 people.

I think the odds of secession within the next ten years are higher than the odds of the state voting Republican in the next ten years.

 

If California secedes, what are the odds that a movement starts for them to become part of Mexico. La Raza more radical members have been pushing to give that area back to them for a while anyway.

 

I doubt it. Mexico is more socially conservative than California is, so you'd see a breakdown between Mexican nationalists (who are broke-*** poor) and the white God-haters (who have money). I also don't see California's black or Asian population wanting to be annexed into Mexico.

 

Oh don't get me wrong, I doubt it would fly. I just think you'd start hearing some opportunistic voices pop into the discussion. Which would be great, because it would force some of those radicalized voices into the open. Kinda like this past election has done.

I would also say that while it's true Cali is more liberal, leftists tend to have a blind spot to things like that where third-world countries are concerned. Plus, there's a whole lot of white guilt there. Those kinds of movements often don't really get thought through until they're implemented.

 

California won't exit nor turn Red. In a hypothetical of California leaving the union, Oregon and Washington (Western half) would likely join them. It would have to be Armageddon in D.C. for that to happen.

 

The only negative I can think of if California secede is we'd have to build a longer wall.

 

NR with a good solution.
http://www.nationalreview.com/artic...sion-bad-idea-division-two-states-better-idea

 

Texas is more likely to turn blue by 2020 than California red by 2024. Texas will get rid of Abbott these next elections.

 

Really? And replace him with a Wendy Davis? There are only 13 Liberal Governors left. I think most states are seeing the light that are blue states now. So I don't see a red state replacing our Governor with a Blue Candidate. Our last Democrat that was elected Governor is Ann Richards. She won by default because Clayton Williams talking about comparing the weather to rape and the whole "just sit back and enjoy it" comment.

 

Especially since Democrats' whole "fast-tracked to citizenship for illegal aliens" scheme is Dead In the Water now.

 

Texas is closer to going blue than California is to going red, but neither are close. Once the Texas Democratic Party stopped being significantly different from the national party, that pretty much sealed their fate as a minority party in Texas for the long term.

 

Be interesting to see if running out of water will somehow do it. Because they are going to run out of water.

 

No, they won't. Certainly not any time soon.

 

By my prognosticator, they will. Unless they win the war that will come, or develop desalinator's it will happen - I doubt in my lifetime (not that long mind you) but I do see it coming because we cannot take preventive action in time - not in our nature no matter what idiot Brown screams about enforced usage limits.

 

They'll ration water and pay whatever it costs to keep the water flowing. They'll pay through the nose for desalination or something else, but that's nowhere near enough to make the state turn red. To make a real political impact, the water would have to literally be gone - millions of people turn on the tap and nothing comes out.

 

It's such an interesting state. First, it's a crazy beautiful state. As beautiful as any place I've ever traveled. Bay Area, Yosemite, Los Angeles is a blast. The urban dwellers both in SF and Los Angeles are comparatively much more friendlier than their counterparts in New York City and Washington DC. San Diego is full of folks I really like.

I think California is very much like Texas, as in people outside the state have a stereotype that while is somewhat based on truth, the reality is much more complex. Yeah, the stereotypical Texan is republican, we like guns, we go to church...but are the friendliest most hospitable folks you meet. That Texan would totally get along with a California nature lover on a fishing trip/hike through the Sierra Nevadas.

Like a noir novel, I think the insane beauty of California subconsciously masks in the minds of Californias critical problems dealing with the enviornemnt, social class, economics, and racism. They can't tell their socialism is crippling their state and their neighboors because it's always 75 degrees and sunny.

 

I was born in California and lived there until I was 8 years old, and most of my extended family has lived there since the mid '50s (on my mom's side) or the mid '60s (on my dad's side). What you say is true. It is a beautiful state - colossal mountains, trees big enough to drive a car through, stunning lakes, sandy beaches, and cliffs overlooking the ocean. In my view, no other state even comes close. (Sorry, Texas. You're ugly as sin by comparison.)

You are also correct that most of the people are very decent folks, even in the big cities, especially if you compare them to city-dwellers in the North. A flamboyant gay dude in San Francisco might do unspeakable things in the bath house, but he is going to be a lot more pleasant than a pissed off cab driver in Manhattan.

Nevertheless, I think the natural beauty leads to a rabid environmentalism, which I understand. I wouldn't want corporate hacks trashing some of the most beautiful places in the world just to hustle some easy money. However, people also have to be able to go to work and earn a paycheck, and some balance is needed. Furthermore, the embrace of the counterculture has gone so far that they've gone full crackpot in their politics.

 

Yep. In Texas (and the rest of the country), happiness and beauty is what you can make yourself. That probably informs your politics when you just can't roll out of bed have yourself a $7 cappuccino at your favorite independent artisanal coffee shop and drive 10 minutes to see the majesty of the freaking Pacific Ocean.

 

OK, I lived in the Açores for 18 months, and it gave California a serious challenge.




This was the view from my balcony. It's the Atlantic but it was stunning.

 

Where are the trees? Need to have some trees bookending that view.

 

LOL. The lower altitude portions of the island didn't have a lot of trees. It wasn't bare by any means, but it was mostly bushes with some small trees. For example, this is a view of our house from the walking trail in the background of the above photo. On many, many afternoons and evenings, I grilled meat, drank beer, and enjoyed the ocean breeze. I've never had a setup that cool before or since. (Pardon the mediocrity of these photos. I'm not the best "photog" out there, and I'm colorblind, so I'm not particularly good at adjusting photos either.)


However, what was cool is that if you drove just a few miles away, you'd reach the interior of the island, which was dominated by an active volcano, which obviously had a much higher altitude and very different growing conditions and temperatures. In the summer, it could be 75 degrees at our house and 40 degrees in the interior. For example, this is Lagoa das Patas ("Duck Lake"), which obviously has large trees.

 

No kidding.. what a God-forsaken wasteland THAT is!