I hope so. I can't wait to eat humble crow pie over this. Still, Economists using equations to predict the college choices of top football prospects? seriously...really?
Anyone remeber the SAT economics is to high school seniors as oil is to _______________. A gasoline B water C fire D air For the aggies and sooner trollers the answer is B.
i want to see scott come to texas, but if he doesnt i wish him well. i love recruiting battles, this is what it is all about. this is why i spend hundreds of dollars a year to be a member of rivals!! I LOVE IT!!! COME TO TEXAS MR. SCOTT YOU WILL BE EMBRACED HERE LIKE NO ONE ELSE IN A LONG TIME!!!!
I don't know how much some of you guys know about statistical modeling, but its actually pretty amazing what you can learn if you have a large enough sample of data and some people that know how to correctly model it. I wouldn't sell these guys short just yet, IMO.
Based on my computer model, I am ready to make a prediction: Houston Madison QB Vincent P. Young will commit to Texas, based largely on its being the only in-state BCS school within a three hour drive... that doesn't **** ***.
I'm fairly unimpressed. As someone who does a lot of statistics, correlation, and mathematical modeling for a living I have serious reservations about being able to predict human behavior any better than a human educated in that behavior could predict it. For things in the physical and scientific world where behavior is more consistent and explainable, then yeah models are great. What I would like to see in order to tell me if this model is really any good is to have several recruiting experts (the educated humans) also predict where they think the players will go beforehand as well at the same point in time that the model does it's prediction. If the model predicts better than they do on average then we can talk. But I'm convinced the experts on average can predict at a 70-75% rate as well based on their info. First of all, for a lot of the kids it's either obvious or a foregone conclusion where they are headed which leaves you having to predict the ones that aren't as obvious. Even for those, though there's rarely more than 2 or 3 schools that you realistically have to choose from. I just think once you've taken these things into account the recruiting experts could accurately predict 2/3 to 3/4 of the kids.
Of the 8 players they predicted to Texas in 2006, all 8 ultimately signed with UT. That, is damn near perfect.
10 Criteria variables for selection: Whether the athlete made an “official visit” to a specific college Whether the school is in a BCS conference The distance from the high school athlete’s hometown to a specific school Whether the recruit is in the same state as a specific school The final AP Ranking of a specific school in the previous year of competition The number of conference titles a school has recorded in recent years Whether the school is currently under a “bowl ban” for violating NCAA rules The current number of scholarship reductions a school faces for violating NCAA rules The size of the team’s stadium (measured in terms of seating capacity) Whether the school has an on-campus stadium The current age of the team’s stadium ************************** Texas was listed by seven and we landed 7. Ou was listed by three and landed one. Tamu was smoked one list and "0-fer" 100% coorelation of a recruit projected to select and eventual rejection of TAMU... way to go guys! Perfect ( failure rate)
I just had the chance to log back into hornfans...for the record "imbraced" is spelled e-m-b-r-a-c-e-d...sorry for any confusion. i must admit though, some of your post's were pretty damn funny. remind me next time to save the embarrassment and never misspell another word on this borad
