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Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AC, Mar 25, 2020.
To further elaborate on my post above:
S&P YTD 2020 +1.6%
Nasdaq. YTD 2020 +25%
BTC YTD 2020. +57%
Now address the fact that it was at $20,000
How? It’s volatile, like Amazon, Facebook, et al used to be. Difference is when the DXY is dropping fast, Debt to Equity is climbing fast, GDP is -33% these other stock based assets will crash. They’re supported or propped up by Fed Liquidity. BTC May drop with them but with above mentioned factors, BTC will rise up and I think finish the year around $20K. Subscribe to Real Vision. A weak dollar will drive Gold Silver up, but BTC will drive up higher. It’s more scarce the supply cut in half on March 11th. It’s called the halving and it’s every 4 years. BTC is more fungible being digital, and it’s more scarce. So it has way more rocket fuel to grow faster than precious metal does. We can also track every BTC transaction to the penny. Not possible with fiat currency and Gold. $20K 12/2020 $100K 12/2021.
Drink that kool aid
+$278/coin since your last post.
The price will go up....and down. Consider the fact that no one can answer my questions above. That should cause you concern, and I wish you no ill will whatsoever.
Thanks, your all right iatronic. I just don’t see many good options when this train starts rolling a little more downhill. I fear for a lot of people financially.
This Stock to Flow Model version is easier to understand.
300 oz of Gold in global supply for each Bitcoin in Global supply.
Then why isn’t the market share and market cap and trading volume and price appreciation happening with any of these shitcoin forks? Hint: token issuance and block size are not the reason
If you were truly interested in understanding the topic you would already as there is no shortage of information available. Yours is just a different flavor of Kool-aid
More explanation, on the right side of the stock to flow chart is colored dots telling you how many days to the next halving. 4 years ago at the end of the red dots BTC was $800-$900. 18 months later at the end of the yellow dots (<1,000 days to next halving), it hit $20,000. This happens EVERY 4 YEARS. This Bull Run will be EPIC!
Do you have any specifics, or just criticisms? I have studied it. Just answer the simple questions.
Okay, why didn't it hold it's value after it almost hit $20,000? The dollar's value didn't drop by over 65%.
I think Bitcoin is interesting. A $1,000 investment in 2010 would have been worth $2.375 Billion when the price hit $19,000. Pretty cool. Justified? Yes, in terms of supply and demand. Sustainable? I don't see it because there are suitable substitutes. A seller is not going to care if he takes dollars, bitcoin, ethereum, or any of the other 100+ cryptocurrencies as long as the safety factor is comparable. If Bitcoin has an exceptional safety factor relative to the others, I can't find it.
Driver 8 chime in on this. But to my knowledge the shitcoins don’t halve like Bitcoin so stock to flow only counts for Bitcoin. One huge reason why Bitcoin is pumping now is the market cap from shitcoins is flowing into Bitcoin. They pump then Bitcoin pumps for like 18 months then **** coins pump. It’s rhythmic timing set on a 4 year cycle. Use the stock to flow model as your chart.
If you could just answer my basic questions above, I could agree with your assessment.
Not sure about all of them but Litecoin (LTC) had a halving last August. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) had a halving event shortly before BTC’s this year. I think a lot of the miners on that chain bailed out after that because the block subsidy was reduced, and many of them returned to Bitcoin where it’s more profitable.
This is one of the reasons why altcoin/shitcoin projects don’t accrue much value. Miners are incentivized to work the most profitable blockchain, and right now that’s Bitcoin. First mover advantage, network effects, security, liquidity, 11 year track record, etc.
Because it’s still a speculative asset, not a currency. 2017’s crazy run up to $20k was FOMO. Traders suspect a blow-off top and take profits, not unlike the stock market. Profit chasers disappear, big selloff, prices dump for a while. It’s not new.
I would argue that sellers accepting Bitcoin are mostly investors/speculators as well, and are not treating any of these as “currency” like the dollar.
I don’t treat Bitcoin like a currency. I treat it like Gold. I have never sold it. But I will when the stock to flow shows its overbought. Close to 1,000 days before the 2024 halving. When 97% to 98% of the supply of Bitcoin is in profit. You need a buy and a sell strategy. I’ll keep 10% + in case I’m off on timing.
Okay, as long as you see it as a speculative asset I can understand you.
Now, how would you classify this asset if you had to break down the value characteristics? It's an intangible. It doesn't have underlying value like a share of stock does. You can't eat it, look at it, live in it, drive it, etc. It's purely synthetic as is its limited supply -as opposed to naturally occurring and limited in supply. Bitcoin can be reproduced by others in its exact form and sold for less, which means its market share is suspect in the long term.
It is the same type of asset, minus the tangible nature, artistic appeal, and historical significance as a pet rock, baseball cards, paintings, and cabbage patch dolls, but with a higher price (except for some paintings and cards) and price volatility. You are betting on the whims of the general public. Mob psychology is tough to bet on. It is a ponzi scheme, pure and simple. I'll give you $20 for this electron, and you go and sell it for $30, and so on and so on.
You could say the same thing about the internet.
You have a very different idea of how a ponzi works than I do.
Anyway, wise of you to avoid it.
You can order items with the internet, watch movies, do research, collaborate with colleagues, play games, make plane and hotel reservations, etc. etc.
I agree. I'm just curious why no one can answer the simple questions or address the specific issues.
You can't do that with a dollar either. You could make something pretty with gold which is why it won the commodity money war.
You can back it with the greatest economy in the world and the taxing power that goes with it.
That is why the dollar is used so much today, but you can't hold it in an account and keep purchasing power with it like you can with Bitcoin today. Gold still works too.
He's not using Bitcoin as a currency for purchasing power. He's using it as an asset for investment purposes.
Bitcoin's purchasing power is down almost almost 50% from its high water mark. How is that holding purchasing power? Gold fluctuates the same way.
Bitcoin will pass $20K/coin this year! Grab your popcorn.
Btw, the blockchain which is Bitcoin’s platform is providing banking services, exchange OTC services, credit card services through Visa, software through IBM, Cash App by Square makes the majority of their profit off of CryptoCurrency. Betting against the Blockchain IS like betting against the internet in 96’. It’s early stage right now. So it’s volatile!
Most Bitcoiners did NOT pay $20K for all or even most of their BTC. Most dollar cost average over time. Many lucky investors got in <$1,000 and still have it.
We’ve answered and you don’t like those answers. It’s speculative, we know and accept the risk!
It's not that I don't like the answers. There were no answers to my questions. One thing I am 100% sure of is that this is nothing like the internet.
I think I have illustrated the fallacy of crypto currency, but I still wish you the best of luck. Don't be the last one holding the "intangible nothing".