The Link Everybody use the link above to play with teh future races. You will find that even in spite of HRC's win tonight, she has almost no chance to win, even if the majority of superdelegates break in her favor. Here's the numbers I plugged into the model: HRC wins Penn and Indiana by 12 points HRC wins PR, WV, KY by 20 points Obama wins OR, SD, Montana, NC, and Guam by 8 points Under that scenario, Obama leads Clinton (and breaks the 2025 total needed for the nomination) in every superdelegate scenario unless she wins the remaining superdels by greater than a 60 to 40 margin. Chances of HRC swinging the unpledged superdelegates by a 60/40 margin: ZERO Its all over but the cryin folks
Too bad not every human is connected and bound to numbers. We've known long ago that the odds are great. And we've seen the professionals be very wrong with their numbers.
I think that has been a given for a while now. It is a matter of Clinton thinking she is going to swing the super delegates or get Obama in a few more debates where he slips up again.
Seeing Bill Clinton on stage tonight made me realize nothing is given when back room deals come into play -- I don't mean that in a negative way -- I mean that in a Bill Clinton is the most amazing politician we've seen in decades. When he's involved, never count him or his out. I also think the Dems might be wise to let HRC run this time with Obama as a super strong senator waiting in the wings. I've said he's an unknown, but in 4-12 years he certain won't be unknown and his star power could be much higher than any Republican he'd encounter. The early years would be behind him thanks to this election and he'd get the nomination with no problem. I'm also thinking HRC can really give McCain a run for his money in the rural swing states (read - white, blue collar, gun shooting, bible believing, Reagan democrats). I just don't think Obama can.
Hillary wouldnt beat McCain - its why McCain would rather face her than Obama. Her negatives are too high....her levels of trust are way too low on many things. She would have to go even more negative to beat up Obama to even have a prayer which would only hurt her Esp considering her only path to the nomination is likely to tear the party apart with a fight where it would be in such a state for the general election there would be no time to even begin to recover
It's been widely reported. They used to follow the CW that HRC would be easier to beat. They're catching on that Obama! is the one they want to face now. Even Rove has caught onto that.
if this thing can go on for another month and a half, i think the R's take the general. If Obama wins the nomination, McCain will beat him. he is being exposed more and more each day. If Hillary won the nomination TODAY, she would probably beat McCain. but she cant win it today. she has to wait till the convention, and if she emerges as the nominee at that time, the general campaign will have been shortened to the point where its going to be decided on bullet points. its not enough time to reverse her negatives and for the nuances of her campaign to sink in. thats my take anyway. the bottom line is this-- if the D's cant win this election, with the litany of built in advantages they have had in place for a year, then they are simply unfit to govern.
That the perception is the economy is tanking with a republican in the white house, gas is selling for $4.00 a gallon and that we are in the middle of an unpopular war in the middle east. I don't agree with much of the country's collective angst, bitching and moaning, but it is what it is right now, and if the Dems blow this chance to win the white house they are even more incompetant than any of us can fathom.
according to reports this morning Hillary will prob only net 10-12 more delegates out of PA with Obama likely less than 300 delegates away from securing the nomination and under 100 in terms of SD's She really didnt do anything
So, the economy is tanking with a republican in the white house, gas is selling for $4.00 a gallon and that we are in the middle of an unpopular war in the middle east. Seems to me the RepublicanParty has been the one to prove they are unfit to govern and beyond incompetant.
So the concensus seems to be that as of today; 1) The Repubs are incompetant at Governing. 2) The Dems are incompetant at running an effective Presidential campaign to take advantage of the above. Glad we can all agree. So, with these two tenets set. Who should you vote for?
This "Hillary can't catch" Obama stuff makes no sense to me. The race is to 2025 delegates, no more, no less. If neither can get to that number, then she has every right to take it to the convention. She's 120 delegates behind out of like 3300. That doesn't show Obama as a clear cut winner by any means.
a McCain presidency scares me to death the Bush years have majorly hurt this country and McCain prob wouldnt end up being that different Hell he may not even live out his term
too much downside. Hillary is a much more palatable outcome. in other words, i'd rather risk a more likely Hillary presidency vs. mcCain than a less likely Obama presidency vs. mccain. Obama is lower probability but higher impact. plus, i dont believe in a single platform point of his, not that that matters to people who think this is just a game.
