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Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Creek, Sep 13, 2020.
making my move...
OK so the slate this week is hard.
Mad props in advance to whoever gets the most points this week.
Jeez Rain the last three have been hard for me.
Thank you...thank you very much.*
*I reserve the right to rescind this pregame acceptance if, in fact, it is inaccurate
ICU tryna sneak up on me dere...
Damn...screwed over by Manny _iaz once again...that was my 10-point lock of the week, especially with their starter QB from UH out for the season...
Nevada/Fresno State was a toss-up in my mind...both are far more capable than that final score showed.
You got within one point earlier that evening, MB...then I gave you the stiff arm! Lol
Depending on where your peers have it, sometimes better to lose a line than win it.
Wild week it was...tough slate..
Congrats to Horn in Murietta for the most points this week!
Best to all...
This week will require a little more time focusing on the college games...some promising match-ups in there.
IDK....promising to punish anyone caught slippin.
...I hope it ain't me.
It will likely separate those who get caught looking only at the records of teams...I see a few trap selections tucked away in those ten...
Just 5 words for this week...
Go big or go home.
Geez Burnt O you need to bet the moneyline in Vegas. You are killing it.
A lot of people don't realize that a sports bettor is considered to be profitable AND successful if they only hit around 57%. The problem with a lot of these games is that the money lines for many of the picks would be minus money, so these are not the get rich and retire 60% some of us have been running...
That Va-BYU game looked more like a basketball score by the end...66-49 or something like that...and scoring actually SLOWED DOWN in the second half. It was 34-30 at the half (Va) if I remember right...
The SMU game killed me...two weeks in a row that a late score cost me a ten-point game.
Remember also that, even in Vegas, people run hot for a while. In the Circa contest, the leader after seven weeks is 29-6 and there is a 14-1 for the first three weeks of the current quarter. The first two years of this one suggest that people often have a really hot quarter but cool off the rest of the contest, which is why the winner will usually be around 70% and 60% hits the top 50 (out of ~4K this season). There are also some of us (me) who just plod through with the mentality of go at least 3-2, throw in a few 4-1 or 5-0 weeks and try to avoid the bad weeks...my problem this year has been that the three 4-1 weeks have had a couple of 2-3 and a donut tossed in. So after seven weeks, I am still grinding, eight points out of the lead and five out of the money.
Damn y'all...you were supposed to get sucked in by Wake being over-rated while I laughed with the Fighting Mack Brown pick, even if I only set it at one point.
Instead, Wake misses free throws and NC wins for everyone...well, at least the top few I looked at. Oh wait...hearing it was not free throws but, was in fact, a football game that came down to needing to recover an onside kick.
Got me, much as I wanted Mack to win I put it down as a confident with WF.
Never fails, I pick an almost sure win, IMO, and they are going to lose. I picked MSU to beat Purdue with a 9 confidence score, SMDH.
Does anybody care??
Come on, guys...
It always seemed like the thread was real active when I was losing.
Rain—-The new format makes it hard to see how everyone picked in the grid. That way I used to call out IDE or Badass on what they were thinking or if they hung it out there and got a big win…. You have been doing great! Part of this is understanding kid’s motivation…..
You are going to be hard to catch. But if I end up with the Silver, that is fine by me.
At least I’m ahead of my wife this year, that’s all I can say.
Thank you, Creek. You, too.
A lot of you all are very good at this and always near the top.(Creek, IDE, MB, JKExcl., Badass, Sando, others).
I finished 2nd to Badass last year and vowed to move up 1 spot.
My wife and I are expecting our 6th child, I run a couple businesse, and play tennis once a week if I'm lucky, so....a few minutes on HF and ESPN pickem is about as wild and crazy as my personal entertainment and indulgence gets lol.
And on the new format and related...
It is interesting...think I liked the old better?? Not sure
One thing is less to talk about as you noted.
I suppose the game itself discourages too much chatter before they are played as you might help your competition...or hurt them. Lol
We can always chatter after!
I personally feel like it has been a challenging year picking games and there is a lot of parity outside of a few teams...would be true in pro this year as well. But I suppose if it is a hard week for you it is probably a hard week for others.
You guys are great.
All the best....
Part of what hurts people like me in a contest like that is that I build my review models around a spread selection. Picking outright winners and then ranking the games is outside of my comfort zone week-in and week-out. Even my Circa contests for real money are spread-based, save for Survivor, which is only one game straight up each week with the caveat that you cannot use that team again...and Thanksgiving and Xmas are their own weeks.
I feel you, MB..
I dont know much about that world but I can understand enough to see the challenge.
All I know is that whole game is very difficult to win at...and I can see how different the thinking must be...and the margins for success must be razor thin.
Seems most people hit only around 50-60% or less if they are lucky just picking winners alone.
It has been demonstrated by the powers that be in places like Vegas that one CAN be a winner with a 57% win rate. These won't be huge sums, but it covers the juice and leaves some profit.
The winner in the first two Circa contests ran about 70% across the season and it was just over 60% as I recall from last year to be in the top 50 out of more than 3K entries. This year is shaping up to be about the same with 4K entries.
In THAT contest, we get the lines around noon on Thursday...if you want a Thursday game, you have to get all five picks in by mid-afternoon Thursday. Otherwise, it is either a Friday or Saturday deadline if using a proxy or 5P if submitting in person. I use a proxy with a premium service level which gives me until 3PM Texas time on Saturdays. Lots of things happen from Thursday afternoon into early Saturday afternoon, especially this year and last with the 'rona.
Two bad weeks are keeping me out of the top ten right now. Not top 10 percent...top ten. I'm at 33-22 after 11 weeks and that is with a 1-4 week and an 0-5 week. There is a tie at 9th with 38.5. The tie at 34th rounds out the top 57 and is at 37.
There are also some quarterly bonuses that come into play, but my experience last year was generally slog along as opposed to seeking that one mammoth quarter, although I came close in Q2, finishing two points out of the bonus cash. I had four of the five weeks with a 4-1 record. Winner on the quarter had 21.5 points overall. It is a grind...and it goes beyond the level of just trying to pick at a level that would be profitable at the window.
Is that Nash I see at the top of the leaderboard on the horns weekly score prediction?
No it’s Creek-lol, must be whiskey
Okay last week——Rain I cut the your lead in half. Hoping for tough games.
Good fight for Bronze between ID exist, Jklauslive, Horn in Murietta.
Good luck all!
PS: Badass —did y’all have a coaching change??