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Discussion in 'On The Field' started by BurntOrangeLH, Jan 29, 2020.
Optimistic with one big downer.
But it could happen.
Ten Predictions for the 2020 season
Sugar Bowl not a worry as an 11-1 Texas team will be in the CFP. ou would then get the honor of schooling aggy.
An 11-1 Texas team would be playing in the useless Big 12 Championship game against a team we probably have already beat.
There is no such thing as a "... useless Big 12 Championship ..." game. Any B12 Championship game is relevant even if both were unranked. It is still a Conference Championship Game.
I don’t want to play aggy ever again.
In any sport.
Well, there goes the surprise element.
“If the Horns go 2-0 against LSU and OU, then they’ll be ranked in the top 5” (paraphrased).
Wow, going out on a limb. Pretty much a worthless article. Still refers to Epps as WR too
Really surprised to see ou that high
This. Anything based on Big Game Linc's reputation (for anything other than conning the Heisman voters) is suspect.
I know fpi has alot to do with returning production...so I guess the fact that they are starting fresh at QB clouded my realization of their returning talent.
Right and we do have alot + the key position of experienced QB. We are in the best shape in the conference in this regard, I think.
ESPN defines its FPI as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date and the remaining schedule.”
I'll run through each of the predictions:
1. 2-0 against LSU/OU
Nope. We've seen what this team does for the past 11 seasons. My money is on losing to both right now, but I'd love to be wrong.
2. Sterns bounceback
Yes. I think he finally gets healthy enough to prove that he met the hype as a freshman.
3. OK State game determines who goes to CCG
Too early to tell. I think we can hold our own against them, but they're the kind of team that plays better late in the season. They have their own roster/injury issues as well, and I think our D matches up well. It could already be determined that one of us is going to the CCG before the game even starts.
4. Cosmi is All America
Probably. On name recognition alone, he's bound to make at least 1 list.
5. Robinson leading rusher
Doubtful. With Johnson staying at RB until further notice, I just doing seeing Bijan supplant BOTH him and Ingram. Whittington has already moved to slot, and the article is implying that Whitt will be getting carries too? I see Robinson as a change-of-pace guy who takes away about half of Johnson's carries. 2005 was an anomaly where Charles came in and even though he was hurt, his talent was clearly superior to Selvin Young, Ramonce Taylor, etc. I don't think that applies to Robinson with how well the RBs played at the end of 2019.
6. Top 5 ranking
Meh... not if we lose to someone early like LSU. Which we probably will.
7. No star WR
Already said I agree on a different thread. It'll be like 2007. We had a decent year throwing the ball, but no one stood out as the "main" guy.
8. Ossai's improvement
Jury's out on whether he'll be a dominant DE now that we're switching it up. I think he should have improved numbers from a QB pressure and sack/TFL standpoint, but I don't necessarily think it'll be because he's much "better." Just in a better position to make those happen.
9. Undefeated @ home
I'd love for that to happen. Biggest obstacle is Baylor, who I think will suffer little dropoff from 2019. Their defense will be just as stout as last year when they held us to nearly nothing. TCU will be improved, but last year's game was such a clusterfuck against them. I think WVU will be a bottom dweller. We owe ISU and usually handle them at home.
10. Play A&M in Sugar
SEC probably won't let that happen. They'll give the spot to whoever loses the CCG, assuming the winner is in the playoff. A&M won't make the CCG at 11-1 or 10-2. They'd be more comfortable holding out for a different New Years Six game or throwing A&M in the Citrus/Outback Bowl.
At one time, I believed 2020 would be our year. But 2019 with injuries and poor performances in the mid to late part of the season caused a falloff, and now with the new coaches and schemes being installed, I don't believe 2020 will be all that stellar. 10-2 is the best for the regular season, with my most likely finish being a 9-3 record. 2021 may be good, but probably another 9-3 best as we break in another QB. Now, 2022 I believe could be "the year" and and 11-1, maybe a 12-0 finish. However, I recognize there are too many "ifs" and unknowns right now, so this season could be stellar with Sam and the O having a great year and the D shutting down the opponents. On the other hand, it could be another "meh" type finish.
As a side note, here's how the aggys have fared since joining the sec. 2012 was their best. The rest are not that impressive considering the number of wins against the patsy programs they play.
1 2019 SEC 8 5 0 .615
2 2018 SEC 9 4 0 .692
3 2017 SEC 7 6 0 .538
4 2016 SEC 8 5 0 .615
5 2015 SEC 8 5 0 .615
6 2014 SEC 8 5 0 .615
7 2013 SEC 9 4 0 .692
8 2012 SEC 11 2 0 .846
3. Agree... I think we lose this one.
5. If Robinson doesn't unseat Ingram etc, he isn't near the back people think he is.
6. Have to go unbeaten to get in top 5.
7. Someone has to step up or we will lose at least 5 games.
9. We should win at DKR...Some road games will be iffy.
10. We will either be in play-offs or back at the Alamo Bowl or Texas Bowl. This team will shine or **** the bed with the new staff.
THE KEY : Will they let Sam be Sam or will they try to protect him from injury again like last year.? If they try to make him a pocket passer and protect him we are doomed to have at least 4 or 5 losses for sure.
I can see us winning both games, I think we have the best returning starters in the conference. LSU is probably still more talented, it will be young with lots of new starters.
As I understand, we haven't seen him healthy since the beginning of his freshmen year. It will be good to see where he is as 100% healthy.
It's a big game for Texas, but they have to prove they can beat blowu before I would make the above statement.
We can only hope, but most All American lists are more popularity contests than a true indicator of how good of a season they had.
No, he is going to be good, but Ingram will get about 50% of the snaps and the other 50% will be divided between Robinson, Johnson and Young.
Top 5 ranking at the start of the season means nothing, top 5 at the end is something to be proud of.
Disagree, who ever plays in the slot will be a star because Sam will target them about 10 times a game.
Ossai will be the star of the defense (as long as health dictates) I expect him to have as much a impact as Orakpo had in 2008.
I expect it.
I expect a playoff berth, the way we don't is if there are 4 other undefeated teams ahead of us. I don't think we are undefeated, but we better win the conference.
Then there is this:
Texas Football: Longhorns Rank in FPI Top 10
I think we have much more talent coming back than LSU. I don't fear them at all and if we lose to them even at their place it will be because they out-coached us.
I’m not drinking the kool aid yet... not until after LSU and OU... believe me, I want too..... But I’ve been disappointed too many times recently...
1-1. Texas' running game and healthy secondary will be the difference in the LSU game. Assuming Texas doesn't come out scared of ou, they might lose the first ou game, but will win the CCG.
He is due good health. If he is healthy he will be in Jim Thorpe discussions. If he misses time due to injuries Texas should have the horses to cover his position.
oSu's worse games have been at the end of the season. Texas should have too much for them. As far as oSu making the CCG, they will have to beat ou which seems to be an issue for them.
aggy would have to win the $EC West first. I can see them losing to Alabama and one other $EC team so there goes the CCG and any chance of going to the Sugar Bowl. The should lose only 2; will lose their bowl game; and still claim they had the best team in the country after they beat LSU.
So I looked up returning production to check this out and the one conference school that might be in better shape is Okie St. They only lose like 3 starters, while returning both Hubbard and Wallace. They also did well in the transfer market, landing Sills (a good OT) and a pass rusher from Pig. And we have to play them on the road in 2020.
This has 100% certainty.
ESPN preseason FPI top 10:
2) Ohio State
5) Penn State
8) Texas A&M
9) Notre Dame
I disliked the post when JF posted it because I think we beat LSU and ou and are ranked in the top four thus making the CFP. Horns should win the B12 outright.
I think A&M will stay at/near Top 4 (between 3-7) from late September until November 21. They're going to beat their first 4 opponents by an average of 30-something points. The game against Leach will be a fun little "Leach versus A&M reboot" but A&M should handle the Bulldogs well. Auburn will be down. South Carolina will as well. They should beat the crap out of Kiffin and Vanderbilt the week after Miss.
I wouldn't be surprised if they held their own against Bama on the road, but still lost by a couple scores. They'll have revenge on the mind against LSU too. 11-1 is completely within the realm of possibility, but I think seeing A&M with that record is going to be a lot for pollsters to handle. It's going to make them reevaluate whether the SEC should have an 11-1 team in the Top 4, seeing how A&M will have beaten virtually no one worth half a **** and sleep-walked to that record. My bet is that half of the CFP committee will try to keep them in it by virtue of conference, and the other half will start to question why the SEC is always so "fortunate" with the rankings.
They have a pretty easy schedule - where are the losses?
Sep 5 (Sat) Home Missouri State Norman
Sep 12 (Sat) Home Tennessee Norman
Sep 26 (Sat) Away Army West Point, N.Y.
Oct 3 (Sat) Home Baylor Norman
Oct 10 (Sat) Neutral Texas Dallas, Texas
Oct 17 (Sat) Away Iowa State Ames, Iowa
Oct 24 (Sat) Home Oklahoma State Norman
Oct 31 (Sat) Away TCU Fort Worth, Texas
Nov 7 (Sat) Away WWU Morgantown, W.V.
Nov 14 (Sat) Home Kansas State Norman
Nov 21 (Sat) Home Kansas Norman
Nov 28 (Sat) Away Texas Tech Lubbock, Texas
Last game of the season. Any team that sleeps on Sanders will regret it as he will be a sophomore this year. We hopefully remember how much Ehlinger improved his sophomore year.
I see about four or five games and all the rest are intrasquad scrimmages.