How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

     
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  2. LongestHorn

    LongestHorn 2,500+ Posts

    The IMF expects the US economy to shrink 5.9% this year even with the stimulus.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    I actually think that's optimistic.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  4. theiioftx

    theiioftx 2,500+ Posts

    For those who save and manage their money, this economy will be a great opportunity.
     
    • Agree Agree x 5
    • Winner Winner x 2
  5. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada Winebibber

    TDS is viral?
     
    • Like Like x 1
  6. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Only for liberals!
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    The stimulus will have no real effect on the 2020 economy but it will lead to more stagnation in 2021-2022.
     
    • poop poop x 2
  8. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

  9. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 2,500+ Posts

    Most state and local governments will likely take out bonds to cover them until this is over and into the future. It's a crazy thing to do, but likely would be the only way to keep from going under.
     
  10. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    No one has any savings to buy bonds. If we had savings and the ability to buy bonds we wouldn't need stimulus.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  11. LongestHorn

    LongestHorn 2,500+ Posts

  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Aaron Rupar is a great servant in the Gosteleradio.
     
  13. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 2,500+ Posts

    Which are you, a state or local government?
     
  14. Run Pincher

    Run Pincher 1,000+ Posts

  15. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    File this one in the category of things you never thought you’d hear:

    ONLY 5.25 Million new people filed for unemployment last WEEK; the stock markets bounce up on that news in pre-market trading.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. nashhorn

    nashhorn 2,500+ Posts

    One can easily see the strategy behind the Dems new proposal to pay everyone $2k per month. I can read the headlines now blasting anyone who opposes that lunacy (IMO).
     
  17. Garmel

    Garmel 2,500+ Posts

    You do know people have to make a living, right?
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Garmel, he doesn't know. He also thinks the death rate is on the Ebola level.
     
  19. LongestHorn

    LongestHorn 2,500+ Posts

    WALL STREET TO TRUMP: KEEP IT SHUT— The White House held a call this morning with top Wall Street titans and other senior bankers and financiers to talk about how to reopen the economy, part of a barrage of phone confabs between President Donald Trump and executives from industries including hospitality, health care, technology, construction, sports and many more.

    There was a small problem with the Wall Street call. Actually several problems.

    Many of the bankers said they knew nothing about the call until late Tuesday night. Several had quarterly earnings calls this morning that directly conflicted with the timing of the White House summons.

    Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon couldn’t be on the call because of earnings. Neither could JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, though not because of earnings. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan was able to dial in right after his earnings call ended. Another senior executive from JPMorgan attempted to get on the call in Dimon’s place, two people briefed on the call told POLITICO, but couldn’t get through for 20 minutes and finally gave up.

    One top executive described the call as a “**** show” that produced little of substance. Trump asked several questions, including to Moynihan about how the small business loan program was going. That program is now slated to run out of money soon.

    Trump’s call with Wall Street didn’t go as planned

    Bank of America CEO to Trump: Focus on virus first, not return to normalcy
     
  20. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Does anyone actually care what those guys think, or if they were on a conference call? I mean, other than libs crying about everything Trump, of course.
     
  21. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Correct. Everyone gets 2K/Month from the Government and hola.............................
    Liberal Utopia. Government Elites scam 98% of the population and the rest of us are fed hand to mouth by the Government. 50% unemployment.......no problem. $2Trillion/ Month USD printing......no problem. Unending Quarantine for a Flu Pandemic...........no problem. 24/7 media dishonest propaganda...............no problem. Multiple cue attempts to overthrow Trump Administration............no problem.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  22. Garmel

    Garmel 2,500+ Posts

    How much longer can we go until the supply lines start to falter? How will we make it if unemployment gets to Great Depression levels?
     
  23. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Garmel, you are asking the right questions.

    We are witnessing something that has never happened before in history, where a government has made it illegal to produce. Government monetary policy has created plenty of recessions. But that was indirectly by encouraging resource misallocation. They have single-handedly shrunk supply. Now the government is sending out money to everyone. If that stimulates consumption supply chains will empty very quickly.

    Trump needs to announce a reopening to start in the next few weeks at the latest. Then governors and mayors need to follow.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  24. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 1,000+ Posts

    Unfortunately, that's not how it works.

    Employers are required to pay tipped employees the same minimum "wage" as everyone else gets. However, the definition of "wage" includes the "cash wage" paid by the employer plus a "tip credit" for amounts that the employee receives in tips for the pay period. 29 U.S.C. § 203(m)(2). The maximum tip credit per hour is the otherwise applicable minimum wage minus $2.13, which is the "minimum cash wage". 29 CFR § 531.59(a). In other words, at least $2.13 of the minimum wage must be paid in cash and the rest can be "paid" in tips. If wages + tips fall short of the minimum wage for a pay period, the employer is required to make up the difference:

    29 CFR § 531.59(b).
     
  25. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I hope your right Monohorns! Can’t take much more of this **** show quarantine!
     
  26. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    In Texas, you have a 0.0015% chance of dying from Coronavirus, and 80% of those deaths are from folks 65 and older. Time to go to work.
     
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  27. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Using a population of 10 million, a 0.0015% death rate would be 1,500. Take off the controls and maybe the percentages quintuples and the rate becomes a still miniscule 0.0075%. Now you have 7,500 deaths. But since the virus spreads exponentially without controls, the death rate increases over time as greater numbers of the population get exposed.

    The counter argument is that people would eventually starve without resuming economic activity, maybe in even greater numbers.

    Your point that the virus is practically harmless is wrong. In fact it’s deadly. It’s just that the alternative of sheltering in could be worse.

    The idea is that people can go back to normal while simultaneously changing behavior to reduce spreading the virus. This is where China, Singapore, and South Korea are. But cases are starting to recur there again.
     
  28. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    New York is the epicenter of viral infections in the US. ~2% of their total population has been confirmed to be infected. Estimates are that the actual infections are 10x confirmed cases. That is still 20%. That is the the highest rate in the country. This has really been a minimal thing. Some of that is due to the lockdowns. However Sweden has shown that new cases are already peaking there too, and they didn't lock down anything.
     
  29. mchammer

    mchammer 5,000+ Posts

    50% of households are single.
     
  30. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Also read that in a study done in China, I don't think it was the government, it showed 80% of infections came intra-family. 8% was from going to stores or offices, etc. That means personal protection equipment and setting up distancing (that can be done through building and furniture design) should be sufficient to keep this from going crazy. You don't have to send the economy into depression.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2

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