I have been thinking for weeks that the “bend” in the curve wasn’t 100% due to social isolation but also due to herd immunity. It appears that in nursing homes and the like the virus burns itself out either due to immunity or the host dies. That’s why the death rate flattens. Same for hard hit urban areas and parts of Italy. In short, I think social isolation slows it down but the only true fix is herd immunity.
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Last edited: Apr 18, 2020