How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Russian has denied there has been a deal and insists there will be production cuts. The Saudis say they would scale back from 12mbd to 9 mbd IF other countries agree to make cuts. Appears Trump was just talking the market up.
     
  2. nashhorn

    nashhorn 2,500+ Posts

    Hmmm, no one wants to give anyone credit except themselves. A cut back would be good no matter who brought it about. If I were able to go anywhere I’d be more grateful for the low gas prices, as it is, meh.
     
  3. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    No one knows how bad the economy is going to get.

    What I am certain of is, the longer the government keeps in prison mode, the worse it will get.

    We also know that there won't be a healthy recovery. With all the $s being created capital is being consumed and prices are being pushed artificially high. That means there won't be capital left to grow and a huge % of the population will be spending all their money on food, gas, shelter. Savings don't exist anymore in that social class because Presidents like Bush, Obama, and Trump have used the "invisible tax" to take their money.

    We never really got out of the 2008 recession because of the same reasons.
     
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  4. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 2,500+ Posts

    Keep in mind that the great thing about options is that you have unlimited opportunities for gains with a small investment, but in the right situation you have the opportunity for unlimited loss as well.

    The prudent thing is to alway protect yourself.

    If you are going to sell a call, protect yourself by either owning enough stock to cover or buying enough calls to cover it. Selling a call will make money if the stock price goes down, but if it goes up there is the chance for unlimited loss. Buying calls gives you the opportunity for unlimited gains, but only of the stock goes up, it's worthless when out of the money.

    Buying a Put gives you the ability to make money if the stock goes down, but are expensive if the stock goes up so you need to hedge your bets. This is a volatile market so you can make money when it goes up and down. I've used several strategies to protect myself and still turn a profit.


    We aren't going to feel it as badly here. The vast majority of our food is produced right here so we might not get Bananas from South America, but we will still get most of the fruits, vegetables, meats, and grains because we produce them.

    It's a good time to be a hunter, cause if I need food, I'm going to kill me some Feral hogs. If you are also against those AR-15 rifles well guess what, I'm getting a new upper for mine. A .50 Cal Baowulf. I'm looking forward to killing me some hogs with that bad boy.
     
  5. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 2,500+ Posts

    Hogs are good eatin, to be sure, but man those feral hogs are nasty to clean. They usually have a lot of mud, poop, and bugs/maggots on their bodies.
     
  6. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    If you want to get cro-magnon old school, go hunt hogs with a spear and some good dogs.
     
  7. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    This would be a great time to have a (mostly) self-sustaining farm, especially if things get worse and stay worse...
     
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  8. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts


    With business on the Vol Horn Executive ranch falling off due to corona, I put the ladies to work planting lots of crops. I figure I can help my Hornfans buddies out if the poo really hits the fan. :smile1:
     
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  9. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    [QUOTE="Musburger1,
    Those imports are at risk. Another threat is that those nations and others will take steps to protect their own food supplies... Vietnam, the world’s third-largest supplier of rice, suspended exports of those products... [/QUOTE]

    Well, Arkansas is good for at least one thing: massive rice production. Globally, the Asians dominate in rice.

    Largest rice producing nations:

    1 India 43.20
    2 China 30.35
    3 Indonesia 12.16
    4 Bangladesh 12.00
    5 Thailand 9.65
    6 Vietnam 7.66
    7 Burma 6.80
    8 Philippines 4.50
    9 Cambodia 2.90
    10 Pakistan 2.85​
     
  10. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    The policy to help small businesses keep people on payroll means they can not file for unemployment
    So the 10 mil who filed last 2 weeks all worked for big companies!
     
  11. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Virtually every one of those countries is screaming for Urea, much of which comes from this country.
     
  12. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    Some interesting charts and images re: food production & food importing and exporting nations -- most of South America is sitting pretty (outside Venezuela and Dutch Suriname). No food riots there, just soccer riots:

    [​IMG]


    Largest Food Exports By Country
    Rank Country Value of Food Exports (US Dollars, Thousands)
    1 United States 72,682,349.79
    2 Germany 34,628,800.73
    3 United Kingdom 29,540,218.71
    4 China 25,152,286.27
    5 France 24,114,557.76
    6 Netherlands 23,271,570.93
    7 Japan 21,870,881.77
    8 Canada 21,803,448.88
    9 Belgium 15,742,034.88
    10 Italy 13,890,507.81

    Top 10 Agricultural Producing Countries in the World – Countryaah.com

    [​IMG]
    the above map is better for Russia and the US, but not as great for much of South America.

    The 25 Countries That Will Be Screwed By A World Food Crisis
    Bangladesh is so screwed. Where's the late George Harrison when you need him...
     
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  13. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan 10,000+ Posts

    Beside grave economic concerns I have for the short & long term prospects of some of my family members in the oil bidness, TEXAS, the US and the world... I also have real societal concerns about this pandemic dragging on where there is huge unemployment, civil unrest, rioting, looting, increased crime - especially armed robberies.

    I have not heard officials, politicians and law enforcement publicly talking or speculating about this, but they must already be thinking about and potentially planning for it on some level.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  14. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Yeah. A lot of unknowns. Do you evacuate the prisons? What do you do with them? Who wants to be a guard? Suppose millions of homeowners skip payments for the next six months. Does the Fed simply loan a few more trillion at zero percent to the mortgage servicers? How does that work? What about the cost of health insurance? Is that going to double? Would that be sustainable? A lot of questions to be answered if this drags on.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  15. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Relax, we got this.
     
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  16. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    Some frank talk. For better or for worse, this crisis will lead to a massive expansion of the government. And when government expands, it rarely contracts back when the crisis is over.
     
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  17. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Pretty striking to see it in this form even though you already know the number

     
  18. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Y’all are making me feel sicker. My CC rejected my BTC purchase yesterday due to fraud protection, today it’s up $750/coin!

    I Saw John Burt on Fox 26 at Barton Springs Park playing volleyball! Said he couldn’t take being locked inside anymore.

    :facepalm:
     
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  19. huisache

    huisache 2,500+ Posts


    Excuse me, but there was an enormous contraction of government
    After WW II
     
  20. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    True, but back then, Democrats weren't today's Democrats, and Republicans were today's Republicans
     
  21. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    l
    God is protecting you. I guess he figures Burt can’t catch anything.
     
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  22. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    #burn
     
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  23. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    Well, the New Deal was a truly massive expansion of the government. The New Deal programs survived the end of the Great Depression, and in many cases expanded more and more from there.
     
  24. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    Square Cash App
     
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  25. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    G-ddam the Pusher man!
    (old song in case you didn’t know)
     
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  26. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    The Steppenwolf song that isn't Born to be Wild or Magic Carpet Ride.
     
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  27. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    I debated on whether to be an enabler of reckless behavior but sometimes you just gotta help a brother out.
     
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  28. theiioftx

    theiioftx 2,500+ Posts

    Not exactly true. People are being laid off now. The funds do not come until later so those being laid off are applying for unemployment.
     
  29. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    Then the biz would have to hire them back. According to the SBA loans are already being processed.
    According to Fox over 800 PPP loans have already been processed this morning so if any small Biz laid anyone off they need to rehire now
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2020
  30. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Mnuchin said everything is up and running.
    Millions Of Small Businesses Stunned To Learn They Are Not Eligible For Bailout Loans

    well, maybe not what was expected.
     

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