How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    Krugman is a c*nt
    This tweet is in response to an article about COVID reaching older people in Florida
     
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  2. nashhorn

    nashhorn 2,500+ Posts

    Good Lord is that a real tweet. Didn’t like krugman anyway but that’s rather tactless. Guess there won’t be any backlash because, well we know why.
     
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  3. mchammer

    mchammer 5,000+ Posts

    The chant was satire, not that Krugman would recognize it.
     
  4. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Krugman has called people who disagree with him on politics and economics, demons, in an interview. He was asked about the dangers of demonizing those we disagree with. He responded with something like, but they are demons.

    Krugman is c*nt, and a horrible economist.
     
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  5. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    The NASDAQ has been outperforming
    This chart is relative to the S&P

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    And he might be the most discredited economist in history. He is to economics what Jim Bakker is to clergy. He has about that much credibility.
     
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  7. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    These debt cycles take a long time to play out. At some point we are long overdue for a trend reversal. The Cantillon effect is when a central bank prints so much money that their debts are monetised away, however it weakens the currency and therefore weakens the buying power of citizens not heavily invested in assets. The bottom half or more of Americans are losing more and more buying power as the DXY drops ( USD index). Debt defaults, bankruptcies, or perhaps a large enough drop in the DXY will kick off a major trend reversal. Maybe it takes a full year, IDK. I just know we cannot print our way out of this. This trend of lifting stocks through printing liquidity for the stock market will end badly. Maybe it’s planned maybe not. But I have researched this for a long time! We cannot keep up this sharade forever. By we I mean the Fed.

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  8. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    But what about all my Beanie Babies?
     
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  9. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Since you have done the research, explain why stocks are not an inflationary hedge.
     
  10. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    IDK, if inflation comes or not. It may or may not. Deflation is more likely the first affect. If deflation hits that would be the DXY (USD index) Dropping. That is most likely. If that was the result then eventually stock values would get pulled down. I think it will take a long time. Also watch the 2 yr and 5 yr fixed bond rates. If we ever go negative that will speed up the debt cycle and pull down stock values. We’re near 0 on both right now. I listed uncorrelated assets that would inflate during a debt cycle.

    Paul Tudor Jones, Chamath Polihapatia, Mike Novogratz, Mark Yusko, Tim Draper, Mark Cuban, and Jamie Dimon are all Billionaire investors or Hedge Fund Mgrs making these moves. Some public some not as much. Dimon and Cuban were against these moves but recently revealed they are doing this. Cuban is most resistant but he now says everyone should put 10% into Bitcoin or at least Gold. JP Morgan and Fidelity are investing huge money into Bitcoin. Greyscale owns 3% of the Bitcoin market so far.

    This all would hurt most/all stocks at first but after the bottom, then you have cheap entry points to get back in. I don’t know when that would happen, it should be pretty obvious when it starts.
     
  11. 2003TexasGrad

    2003TexasGrad 2,500+ Posts

    Krugman looks like the six fingered man in Princess Bride.
     
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  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Very right. A podcast existed just to point that out. There won't be more episodes but here is the link if interested. Contra Krugman: The Podcast that Refutes Krugman Every Week
     
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  13. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    AC, the Cantillon effect is exactly that some people benefit from the money printing and others are impoverished by it. You are half right. The people who receive the new money first get to spend it at the original value. The devaluing doesn't happen until the new money distributes itself throughout the economy.
     
  14. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    iatrogenic, they are in a sense. The problem is that return rates go lower with all the new money. However, much of the "new" money goes into stocks which does prop up the value and acts as a kind of hedge, at least until a market crash occurs.
     
  15. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I disagreed with your post until
    “At least until a market crash occurs”. I have been predicting that or a slow malaise down. Obviously the second is optimal. I am a contrarian investor, not for everyone, but in these times we are in. My information may help some of you.....I hope.

    We all need to hedge. We have choices but everyone needs to do it. That’s my bottom line.
     
  16. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

     
  17. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

     
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  18. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    AC, the problem is that all the politicians and the Fed Chairs all act like they are the ones coming in to save the economy. No one knows any better, so most go along with it.

    The problem is the Fed's and DOT monetary policy. Remember that. They are causing the problem. The solution is to get rid of them and let interest rates float.
     
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  19. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I agree Monahorns. I subscribe to Global Macro newsletters, podcasts, etc. I used to be a Gold bug, now I’m a Bitcoiner. I started a Bitcoin ATM business in June. So the Fed has Too Much Power. Millions of people will be destroyed Financially by all this at Some point.

    79% of all Global Currency is USD! Not sustainable! Nasdaq, S&P, DJI will crash 40% minimum. I hope it’s a slow malaise down but the charts point to a bubble and flash crash. I study this stuff. I now own no stock! 0!
    This is getting dangerous!
     
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  20. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    I don't know if this is confirmed but if so it will probably pump the markets more, at least through the election

     
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  21. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  22. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Sorry Driver 8 but Raoul Pal says.....not so fast my freind!

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  23. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts



    Help explaining the above chart1
     
  24. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts



    This one shows us the rate of rent default upcoming. Hotels, Industrial, and Retail off the charts. Overall default rate is 11% so far.
     
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  25. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts



    households and companies Debt make up MZM to GDP. Now the ratio is 109%. How is that sustainable?
     
  26. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    It's called zombie companies. Japan and EU do this all the time. It artificially keeps failing businesses from dieing their natural death.

    Again the Fed will act as this is a good thing and a champion for the good of all people, but it leads to economic stagnation. We are literally dumping money into something people don't really want. But the banksters, the CEOs, and polticians all want it. Because they all are scratching each others' backs.

    I would protest over this kind of stuff. Even light a few cars on fire if I thought it would help. Big If.
     
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  27. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Yea don't do that Monahorns. We're white collar over here, and conservatives don't need to stoop to those levels. Now if war breaks out, that's different, but I don't want to think about that. I am trying to stick to financial and football. Two things I know something about. Oh and live Rock Concerts!:headbang:
     
  28. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    AC, I too love rock concerts, football, and free markets. But they no longer exist right now. Many don't think football will be back this fall.
     
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  29. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  30. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Still can’t tell if inflation or deflation is the future. It’s one way or the other, IDK.

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