How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Read an article that said white collar layoffs are right around the corner. Then say my friend from college was laid off by Deloitte after almost 20 years.
     
  2. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    • Hot Hot x 1
  3. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    The above twitter post is from a veteran global macro investor with Northman Trader. This bubble we’re in dwarfs 2008. When it goes it will be much worse than 2008. Worth the read.
     
  4. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    ^ ok this is frightening
    ac I am not smart enough to get this
    Please explain
    and what we can do
     
  5. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    I suspect we will see both inflation and deflation simultaneously. In certain markets like Manhattan, real estate values are plummeting as the wealthy get out of dodge. Commercial real estate value nose dives as stores close and shoppers stay home opting to purchase online. And the velocity of money slows as there are fewer qualified borrowers and less loans originated.

    Conversely, the government is spending additional trillions in debt to keep the economy going. And the Federal Reserve will due whatever it takes (purchase Billions of crappy bonds, treasuries, etc) in the attempt to halt deflation.

    I like gold, silver, and crypto as safe havens vs hyper printing.
     
  6. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    The last thing I want to do is scare anyone. But I’ve used this quarantine, Covid slowdown for several things.
    1. Work on my marriage.
    2. Get back into studying Global Macro Economics. I did that before but got real busy from 2014 until this year.
    3. Start another business which ended up being Bitcoin ATM’s.
    4. Change all my and my families investments.

    As to what to do. May sound drastic. But I sold ALL stock and I’m 100% out of the market. I started with Bitcoin. I think it hits 20K per coin by 12/31/20 and 100K per coin by 12/31/21. $9250 per coin now. Then I bought a good bit of Physical Gold and then I invested in Fine Art. I have some cash waiting to buy Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia, Coinbase once they IPO, and Virgin Gallactic. I have some others too. But anything for stock is in cash. I really see a 50% crash coming sometime IDK when. So I just wait. I can’t invest until it bottoms out after the crash. This looks worse than 2008. 10 Year Bonds are very close to turning negative yield. That forces pensions and endowments to invest in the markets to get yields. Too risky! Someday they will come to Bitcoin and it will just rocket out of site. So I’m sitting on it. That’s where the smart money is. Bitcoin adoption is at all time highs. It’s consolidating right now and since June 1st.

    I subscribe to Real Vision. It’s worth it, the best Global Macro news outlet available. They teach me a lot. I was a Gold bug before I found Bitcoin. Wish I found it sooner. I hold I’m not a frequent trader. Too risky!

    PM me if you want a specific detail.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  7. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Do your own research, just trying to help people.
     
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  8. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    [​IMG]
    Nasdaq shown here going up lock step with Fed printing and liquidity going into market.
     
  9. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    I have been following Tesla for a while now. The stock is on a crazy run this year. I know the market is probably grossly overvalued but I like what I’m seeing in Tesla’s vision and strategy. Looking at this as just a car manufacturer is completely missing the scope of what they are doing.

    tsla.png
     
    • Like Like x 1
  10. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    What is Tesla doing? I don't think energy storage has a good future either.
     
  11. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    Tesla is building a technology stack. Not just cars but also artificial intelligence, robotics, batteries, hardware, software, charging infrastructure, solar. They are building systems and no other company is as vertically integrated in these areas.

    If the move away from fossil fuels to electrification is real (I think it is, and not just for autos) then energy storage is central to making that work.

    On electric vehicles there is no meaningful competition right now, certainly not in the U.S. Competition will come but the other automakers have a huge challenge ahead of them, not just in learning how to make electric vehicles—profitably, and at scale, while also supporting their existing product lines—but in developing competitive battery tech with range and the charging network to support it. Tesla is innovating in these areas and has a big lead at this point.

    One of Tesla’s stated goals is an autonomous taxi fleet. Their FSD (Full Self Driving) tech appears to be getting close—that could still be a couple years away but if they can execute on it, traditional taxis, Uber, Lyft, etc will be hard pressed to compete.

    One essential element to autonomous driving that no other manufacturer can replicate in the short term is raw data. Tesla has about a million cars on the road now collecting data about traffic, road conditions, weather, driver behavior, and a thousand little edges cases that need to be understood and solved. This is an enormous advantage in building out the artificial intelligence to make autonomous driving work.

    Solar Roof and Solar Panels will bring homeowners closer to essentially being their own utility, and in some cases even generate income by selling their excess energy back to the grid.

    Tesla has a VPP (Virtual Power Plant) project in Australia and early results have been favorable. Quote from an Australian government official:

    “This VPP is delivering affordable electricity to some of South Australia’s most disadvantaged households whilst increasing the reliability of the state’s electricity network. Households participating in the Phase 2 trial are charged electricity rates more than 20 percent better [...] Phase 3 of the VPP could see 50,000 homes connected to the VPP becoming the equivalent of a 250MW virtual power plant. VPP’s will be an integral part of the future of Australia’s energy system, allowing people with solar panels to store the energy they generate during the day to power their home after the sun goes down.”

    Tesla has shown with their OTA (Over The Air) software updates that a vehicle can actually get better over time with software improvements (energy usage, steering, braking, new features, etc). It wasn’t that long ago that nobody could imagine a “phone” needing a software operating system. Cars will have operating systems and the good ones will be highly sophisticated.

    Tesla’s ambition to move the world to sustainable energy is a huge gamble with lots of risk, but they have executed pretty well to this point in a number of areas. We will see. I would not bet against them right now.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    This is my problem with Tesla. If it is real it will have to be forced by law since the market would never choose it. It is too expensive and adding battery storage will make it even more expensive for the user. It would mean most people won't be able to afford electrical power, at least in the summer in the South, or we would get intermittent power. Then every other product would increase in price by a large factor.

    I think it is a boondoggle, and Elon thinks he can get government funding for it.
     
  13. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    “This VPP is delivering affordable electricity to some of South Australia’s most disadvantaged households whilst increasing the reliability of the state’s electricity network. Households participating in the Phase 2 trial are charged electricity rates more than 20 percent better [...] Phase 3 of the VPP could see 50,000 homes connected to the VPP becoming the equivalent of a 250MW virtual power plant. VPP’s will be an integral part of the future of Australia’s energy system, allowing people with solar panels to store the energy they generate during the day to power their home after the sun goes down.”

    If we were able to see the real data I am very sure this is all complete ********.

    The only way solar is less expensive is if the Australian government is subsidizing it. Solar power is way more expensive. Georgetown tried to do it honestly and suffered for it. Right now the study is done with a small number of houses so the rest of the state is paying for them to get a cut rate. It is how FDR made the TVA look better than private electricity.

    The reliability is bad too. If they expand this to industrial customers there will be frequent black outs if there isn't fossil fuel generated backup. It even makes fossil fuel generated electricity less efficient. It's like a leach.

    I once read an estimate that in order to store enough electricity to power the world for 1 hour, it would cost like 100 times the global GDP. Maybe it was 4 times, but regardless of the number it made the idea worthless. There will have to be a huge break through in technology to even have a chance of this.

    Better to just go with fossil fuels and nuclear and quit wasting time on wind, solar, and Li+ storage.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I would buy Tesla, but AFTER this crash.
    Sometimes I feel like Noah, maybe the Evan
    Allmighty version. I don’t want a flood (stock market crash) but I really expect it!
     
  15. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    The EV market is still very small but it is growing, and the industry is young. People are buying the cars and liking them. That’s a market choice.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  16. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I want a Tesla Roadster
    0-60 in 1.9 seconds, yo!
    Too expensive but cool.
     
  17. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    I am very, very familiar with the industry. Much of the sales are due to virtue signaling and interest in a new technology. That is part of the market, I agree. There are also subsidies or have been.

    There are performance reasons for buying one. They accelerate like nothing else you have driven. Handling is awesome because the center of gravity is very low. The technology is very impressive.

    The market for EVs is going to stay small unless cost parity is reached or comes close, range is improved, charge time drastically reduced, and safety is maintained. They are much more dangerous than conventional vehicles. They are a rich man's car right now. What they will be depends on technology advance or outlawing ICEs.
     
  18. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    Where are you seeing reports of this, and in what way are they more dangerous? I have read reports to the contrary, that they are actually safer. I don’t know.
    The Model 3 starts at $38,000 — not cheap but also not at all out of line for a lot of people.
    For sure. My brother-in-law got a Model 3 early last year and it is a blast to drive, and kind of weird at first because it is so quick, and silent. He loves it, says it is the best car he’s ever had.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  19. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    The are safer in some ways I am sure. However, in a wrecks they have problems, #1 they are lighter than conventiol and #2 the Li+ cells act as grenades when they fail. They can fail at any time too for a variety of reasons. That is uncommon and control systems are in place to prevent it, but nothing is 100%. The burn at about 800C and the next generation will burn at 1200C. They all spray shrapnel at high velocity so even metal lids aren't all that helpful. New materials are being developed for protection, so it will get better.

    Price is coming down, but I have never paid that much for a vehicle in my life. Also, there will be little to no used car market with EVs. Packs last about 10 years. After that the power capacity goes way down, especially in hot places like Texas.


    I personally think EVs had some utility for short trip transportation and in some urban contexts. Hybrid vehicles have more value in my opinion for a larger amount of people. You can tune designs to get the best of both worlds and offer different aspects of performance to people. Plus, you immediately eliminate range anxiety and the need to use resources to build out all the charging infrastructure. Charging infrastructure will take a huge amount of resources, just to provide a service that we already get at gas stations more cheaply and way more quickly.
     
  20. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    [​IMG]
    Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital and many other major financial experts are looking for signs coming up of negative rates in the US and Globally. That is probably when the market goes from mania phase to blow off phase.
     
  21. mchammer

    mchammer 5,000+ Posts

    LOL - the mean line
     
  22. 4th_floor

    4th_floor 1,000+ Posts

    Woke math - the mean means what you think it should mean.
     
  23. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    RealVision

    For those of you willing to take the time to read and truly understand this it should be eye opening and very helpful. I have started Crypto Currency threads and posted about financial matters. I would guess the average age of our site is 48-55 years old. I am guessing but it is educated. Anyway. I subscribe to Real Vision. I made money in Gold from 2010 until early this year. Now I am a Bitcoiner and I am going back into Gold next week as well. I will leave this for all of you to mull over and think about. I hope this helps you. I know almost 100% the market will crash, just don't know when. Maybe later this year in the 4th quarter. Maybe it goes into 2021. The people I quote on here are really smart largely Billionaire and Multi Millionaire investors. But for normal people the difference between retiring on $1M vs. $2M is huge. Just trying to help some of you. I am behind but I'm catching up. I just don't want a bunch of us hurt by all the turmoil that is still yet to come. It IS coming. Again as I have said before sometimes I feel like Noah (Evan Allmighty version).
     
    • Like Like x 3
  24. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  25. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 2,500+ Posts

    Let me just say I can verify this statement is completely true.

    EVs are mostly a cute toy for the wealthy. Not talking Elon Musk wealthy, but they cannot be used as your only car unless you live in a very urban environment (ie short commute) and then plan to rent a car when you want to drive any kind of long distance. When a gas car can pull into a station and get ~300 miles of range in 5 minutes - the EV cannot compete with that and never will. Then there is the issue of *greatly* reduced range in cold climates. You don't see too many EVs in Minnesota in the winter.

    Even if this was not an issue, we cannot put even 20% of our drivers into EVs because the electrical grid will not support it. WRT range, it's real easy now to make an EV kind of work because these people often get free electricity to charge while at work or at the store. You start jacking up the numbers, and those kind of subsidies are going to not be sustainable.

    My son used to be a Kia technician and had special training for working on their EVs and Hybrids. He says most of the training is safety related because these cars can kill a technician much faster and more completely than a gas car. Firemen and EMTs also receive training so they do not electrocute everyone in the car when responding to a crash.
     
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  26. Facing Addiction

    Facing Addiction < 25 Posts

    Holy Toledo! How did that happen? First, I remember him as a baby. Second, how could you let him work on anything but a Ford?
     
  27. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    The infrastructure is not there today, therefore it will never be there, ok
    Technology has a way of making things possible that were previously thought impossible
     
    • Like Like x 1
  28. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I keep trying to hammer that message home. It applies to Blockchain, Bitcoin, Space Travel, Electric cars. I know we’re old guys, it’s about time the OLD GUYS RULE!
     
    • Like Like x 1
  29. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    Technology advancements can go from incremental to exponential
    Imagine 20 years ago the idea that we could carry little devices in our pockets with wireless access to the world's information, a high definition video camera, etc - many would say no way but it happens like that
     
  30. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    That isn't the issue. Of course technology gets better and if you put enough money into something you get more of it. The point is, if you invest millions of dollars just to get something you already have, you are wasting money. You can already travel in a car as far as you want and "recharge" in 5 minutes. If EVs do the same thing what is the benefit? We get the same thing but we spent millions of dollars for it.

    The things that can help transportation are self driving cars, improving fuel efficiency if the overall cost is improved, and transport subscriptions if they are less than car ownership. That is where the benefit to society will be, not forcing technology by law into the pigeonhole of 100% battery power.
     

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