How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    [​IMG]
    unemployment news? Please. We have bond rates on the 2 yr, 5 yr, and 10 yr near zero, and wait until they go negative. The stock market is on the verge of a collapse which it has been for a while. Too many Americans are getting mislead by main stream financial news! It’s not just the political news that lies to us! Raoul Pal is one of the best Global Macro Economists out there. He studies financial charts not hype. Don’t let the media lie to you! Real inflation was 9% last year we’ll find out later about 2020. It will be ugly. It’s the health of the USD everyone should really care about. Buy Bitcoin, Gold, or Silver. Hoard it.

    Listen to his report from today. I’m really trying to help you guys. I don’t want to see people lose big chunks of their retirement! I know I’m in the 5%! We are right on the verge of Japanification! They had a double dip and never recovered! 1990! God Bless all of you.
     
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  2. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Best US stock performers? Gold Miners.
    Worst? Banks.
    :puke:
     
  3. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    Ac
    I am really appreciative of your posts
    I am actually pretty smart but admit I don't get a lot of this
    I am trying and hope I get it before it is too late
    You are a true Horn
    Thanks
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    That’s why I post his videos. No Economy has printed money like this and run debts like this yet survive it anyway. Don’t be an Ostrich!
     
  5. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Relative to cars, light truck sales have outperformed. But what the above graph doesn't tell you is that both car sales and light track sales have fallen off a cliff. Its just that car sales fell much further. In the period Jan-April, car sales fell 60% and light trucks fell only 30%.

    If I were purchasing a vehicle now, first of all, fuel costs are low. Secondly, many people are driving less for one reason or another (working at home, less travel, etc) so fuel costs aren't a major concern to them. Given a choice, I would rather have own a truck than a car.

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2020.05.29/main.svg

    [​IMG][/QUOTE]
    Love my Z71 Silverado. I got big tires and jacked it up a little. Today, I was waiting waiting for traffic to clear and then I remembered why I bought this truck! **** it, here I come mofo’s!
     
  6. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Even if the ratio of existing money to printed money is 20:1, in a scenario with low margins; and especially if leverage is involved, without that 5% infusion there would be a cascade of failure not unlike a string of falling dominoes. Even if you don’t get this, there are many people who do.
     
  7. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    That is a different scenario than you posited. You said "any positives" were due to deficit spending since the pandemic started, and that "consumption disappears" without that spending. You ignore 95% of the money supply.
     
  8. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Whatever.
     
  9. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Sorry to rain on your rain parade.
     
  10. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Your reply distorted the content of my post beyond recognition. Clearly 5% isn’t more dominant then 95%. Any clear thinking person knows that is not what I’m addressing. The point I made was that any positive economic gains post onset of the pandemic (in the macro sense of the economy as a whole) would not have occurred without massive amounts of money injection. There would have been a deflationary collapse. And if nothing gets passed to keep the printing presses flowing, it will still happen.
     
  11. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    That actually makes sense, unlike your first post. However, we still saw quite a collapse, but not a "structural" collapse. Just a temporary, surprise bump in the road
     
  12. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. I35

    I35 5,000+ Posts

    I’ve said all a long that Trump had the leverage to do Tariffs and China did give or they wouldn’t have agreed to phase one a the new trade deal. We had to take a step back to get 5 steps forward. Phase 2 might have already happened if not for the virus. The deal we had in place from the last was ridiculous and it had to be changed.

    As far as the other argument goes, we’ve been printing money for years. But looking at the Dept of engraving and print by the US Treasury we printed much less in 2019 than in 2018 and the stock market was rising at a rate we’ve never seen before. So that flies right in the face of your argument. The Market is instant based in confidence or fear.
     
  14. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    The Dept of engraving and print is irrelevant. Printing money is a figure of speech. Digital money is nothing more than entries on a computer. And so are stock market gains. Your statement is like saying travel decreased from 1900 to 1920 because records show horse carriage mileage decreased with each passing year.
     
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  15. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I agree with I35 on Trump until we get to the money printer part. I think Mus is making the case for better technology than printing or digitizing fiat currency? Am I right, cause fiat currency IS like faster horses in 1915 to 1920.
     
  16. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    I’m saying just like planes, trains, and automobiles replaced horses, digital dollars have replaced paper ones. And just like travel has increased over time (with the exception of 2020), so has money printing. Paper and coin comprise about the same percentage of new money as horse travel does to total travel. In each case, it is minuscule.
     
  17. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Taking it further, if the car industry decided to increase production tenfold next year, the value of each vehicle would plunge because there would be too many of them. The same is true with the dollar. It takes more of them to buy a share of stock, an ounce and of gold, or a bitcoin. However, a share of stock eventually represents something tangible. And theoretically, if the underlying production behind the stock (sales, revenue, etc) doesn’t keep pace - the company no longer stays profitable - then the price of each share of stock will fall even if money printing accelerates. But unlike stock which has some basis in a companies profitability, gold and bitcoin would continue to rise vs the dollar as money printing accelerates.
     
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  18. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 2,500+ Posts

    Did someone say Planes, Trains and Automobiles

     
  19. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  20. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  21. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    So in an attempt to educate anyone who wants to listen. Inflation matters.....alot. ObiWan is a really smart Global Macro Investor. These two tweets show that CPI (consumer price index) is complete BS! It shows I think 1.7% Inflation at the end of 2019. I attached the Chapwood Index to a post a while back, it shows 8.9% inflation in 2019 for Houston, San Antonio, Dallas areas. Why the difference. CPI is willfully hiding real inflation. Chapwood Index shows 500 items families need to live and indexes them for a more real and accurate inflation rate. This ties back to buying deflationary assets like Bitcoin, Gold, Ethereum. Anyone that stays in cash is going to see their wealth taken from them due to Currency Debasement. The Fed money printer.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020
  22. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  23. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    The CPI is manipulated to show 1-2% price inflation. To do it they price things like a bag of... or servings of... Then they reduce the weight included in "a bag" or "a serving". Producers do this too. The same box contains less ounces. They know they can't charge more money so they give you less. They also offer different packages than competitors in order to confuse what exactly you are paying.

    When you are at the grocery store, look at the $/oz or $/mL. HEB actually provides some of that information on the labels. But you still have to use a calculator sometimes.

    Inflation is the hidden tax. Tax is theft. So it is the government secretly picking your pocket. But they say it increases aggregate demand. So they are lieing to you too.
     
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  24. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    The problems with the economy, today's politics, Antifa, even the poor performance of the health industry all go back to the degree of central planning that exists in the US. Central planning is needed if you believe in collectivism and deny the existence of real human nature. We need a different underlying philosophy for how we see people and the world.

    Defining Ordered Individualism - Part 1

    Defining Ordered Individualism - Part 2

    The philosophy isn't new. It is what Western Civilization used to be based on. I tried to reframe it some to make it relevant.
     
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  25. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

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  26. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

     
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  27. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    Make Coins Move Again!
     
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  28. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I do know Venezuela had these requests before they hyper inflated their currency. Think I’ll transact in Grand Cayman sea shells.
     
  29. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Pretty soon they’ll stop printing 1’s then 5’s.
     
  30. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

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