How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    I too fear another stock market correction especially if 3033030 pulls out a win. I held my positions, but bought technology stocks when the Covid fall occurred as well as some energy positions. I also closed on two pieces of real estate 20% below appraised value. I purchased gold two years ago that has done well. Should have bought more.

    I wish I understood the crypto currency market, but it scares me.
     
  2. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    In my opinion there is not a "market" and there is only one project that is worth paying attention to right now
     
  3. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    Driver? What
     
  4. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    bitcoin
     
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  5. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  6. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Stock to flow model boys and girls! Pay attention. 4 year cycles, bull run for 2 years, bear market (transition year), then re-accumulation year, then another bull run. We’re starting the Bull run since March or so. I am not a trader I hold it.
     
  7. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Since the close of the market Thursday, AAPL has increased in value by the value of NFLX
     
  8. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Too bad the stock market isn't the economy.
     
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  10. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

     
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  11. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Japan went though what the US is going through now. It is called the Japanification of America. Out of control money printing for a very long time, followed by inflation, followed by stagflation or very slow or stagnant GDP growth. It took Japan about a decade to recover. And then they went back and did this again in the late 90's early 2000's and still have not fully recovered. This is why I am scared of the Stock Market.

    My alternatives are Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Fine Art, Real Estate, and maybe fractional Farmland or Ethereum in a small %. It will be more clear later on.
     
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  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    AC, Friedman unfortunately left the door open to this destructive policy when he said there were good effects from printing more money. The good effects only come to the politically connected who receive that new money first. Everybody else never sees any good effects.
     
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  13. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

     
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  14. Driver 8

    Driver 8 smoooove

    Cantillon Effect
     
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  15. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    Driver 8 click on Remy’s rap song above. It’s really funny!
     
  16. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    What would a Biden win mean to the Texas economy?

     
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  17. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

     
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  18. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I think the recession could go either way inflation or deflation. It’s interesting how the Fed QE gives banks credit by buying treasury bonds. That credit is not cash it’s a treasury reserve only to be used by the bank for a loan. If that is correct, QE pulls liquidity out of the system, Deflationary.
    I would rather an inflationary recession than deflationary. He has a follow up video tomorrow. I’ll post that later.
     
  19. 4th_floor

    4th_floor From now on, I want you all to call me Loretta.

    Interesting contrast of theories. Thanks for posting.
     
  20. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  21. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    The DXY US dollar index has rolled over and is pushing up to 93. It was 91.8 a day or so ago. This also points to a deflationary recession. The above tweet shows a massive drop in Velocity of Money. I think this recession will be deflationary which is probably worse. Brace yourselves.
     
  22. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

  23. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Companies have fired everyone they can fire and still keep going
    + no new hires
    = Productivity spike

    [​IMG]
     
  24. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Yeah, I think that is the reason for the fear that it may take awhile to whittle down the unemployment rate.
     
  25. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    AC, deflation as a problem is a Keynesian myth. Deflation is a good thing for working class and savers. If it wasn't people wouldn't be buying bitcoin.
     
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  26. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    I recently started reading The Price of Tomorrow, Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future — by Jeff Booth.

    His basic thesis is that in a world of rapidly accelerating technological progress (which is inherently deflationary), deflation is inevitable and we should embrace falling prices over time as a natural outcome of this.

    The Price of Tomorrow – And the Era of Abundance
     
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  27. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Then of course the only thing that makes any sense is to throw open our borders completely and flood the labor pool with uneducated, unskilled workers
     
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  28. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

     
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  29. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I’m busier than a one armed paper hanger this week! When I can I’ll post the Rebel Capitalist interview with Lyn Alden and Jeff Booth. They agree that we should see Deflationary recession first. Mainly because COVID-19/ QE has so far caused velocity To push way down. QE has not put cash into the economy also a myth. It’s added bank reserves which let a bank loan money but it’s not cash. So liquidity is low the DXY has gone from 91-93 and should run back up to 103. If that happens a deflationary crash ala 1929 could occur. I nor any global macro analyst hopes so but it appears possible. That would be followed up by inflation when the Fed responds to it. This is why I push Bitcoin and Gold. Watch the George Gammon (Rebel Capitalist) video from two days ago or so on this thread. Very informative, George’s partner is Lyn Alden. I am NOT a Keynesian. I’m 100% Austrian Economics. I disliked Keynes since my professors crammed him down my throat in College.

    This stuff is complex as hell. It has appeared lately that the recession will be worse than originally thought but everyone is speculating. We only half a fraction of the chess pieces.

    I’ll buy Jeff’s book. I know he’s right.
     
  30. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    The underlying logic is that as more and more valuable things come to market all the other things will cost less. The prices adjust down for those things that people want less. It means things like food, clothes, and shelter go down in price. Not because food isn't less important but because of supply and demand and the quantity of money available to buy things.
     
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