How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    You completely missed the mark with that one.

    I am pointing out the worthlessness of government, so that people will quit putting their faith in them. I want a private system where hospitals, doctors, etc are free to prepare for pandemics on their own and respond quickly to meet new needs without being held back back by stupid government regulations.

    Government is a false god. Let's kill it.
     
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  2. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    But you're just a pansy liberal. Lol.
     
  3. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 1,000+ Posts

    Is there a better way to show sarcasm? Next time I will use the <sarcasm> </sarcasm> signs.
     
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  4. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    So a lot of us are Libertarians, no?
    I am, I have always voted republican but would argue that when it comes to monetary policy, neither party gets it anymore. No President since Reagan or likely a century before that gets it. The biggest duplicity with Governments are how they control the people with currency manipulation. And the Banking system!
     
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  5. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    And the real force behind that was actually Paul Volcker more than Reagan.
     
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  6. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Volcker raised interest rates, thus slowing money velocity in order to curtail inflation. Right now, the big fair is deflation - the utter destruction of the money (credit) supply. Raising rates would prove catastrophic to the current system as well as increase the amount of interest on the debt (although that perhaps wouldn't be an issue since the Federal Reserve will buying our debt and returning any interest payments back to the Treasury).
     
  7. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    A little back of the envelope thinking.
    [​IMG]

    If you take 10 million newly unemployed people and guesstimate the average weekly income, you get an idea of the total weekly income lost per week in wages. I'll say $700 (I have no idea what the actual figure is). $700 x 10 million would be $7 billion per week. Sixteen weeks would amount to $112 billion. How much of that would be offset by unemployment payments? I don't know.

    Keep in mind the 10 million figure will surely expand in the next few weeks, and would expand even more if not for the SBA administered loan/bailout program for small businesses employing under 500 people. We have already allocated $350 billion for that. And its all debt. This is in essence MMT (modern monetary theory) and may morph into UBI (universal basic income). What an experiment we are waging.
     
  8. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

    I won’t participate in UBI. Nobody should agree to that. It’s facism.
     
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  9. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    It is. And there will be a push in that direction I'm afraid. There will be resistance and conflict. Our maybe Iatro is right and everything will work out nicely.
     
  10. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Maybe? Child please.....
     
  11. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Yeah. Carter and Volcker both. But Reagan was smart enough to keep Volcker and continue the policy. The first 2 years of Reagan's term he was criticized but it facilitate a swift economic turnaround in year 3, which lead to his landslide in year 4.

    Trump had a similar opportunity if he would have appointed a Fed chair in year 1 like Volcker. The economy would have dipped in year 1 and 2, but last year and this one would be much better.
     
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  12. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Carter was a crap president overall, but he did do a few things right. Appointing Volcker was one of them. Starting the deregulation that accelerated in the '80s was another.
     
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  13. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Good to see the kinks have been worked out now. Oh, wait.
    COVID-19 Patients Mistakenly Delivered To Navy Hospital Ship In New York
     
  14. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    Clearly NYC policies are in chaos.
    No surprise with De Blasio in charge
     
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  15. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    Mark Cuban thinks the Fed should just cover anyone's over draft at banks.
    :facepalm:
     
  16. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    Hmmmmm. I couldn’t see any abuse of that... What could go wrong?
     
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  17. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Yep. If that happens, people will write out $2M checks to cash. Why the hell not? I've never bounced a check, but for $2M in cash, it would be worth my credit score taking a hit.
     
  18. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Just in case, I ordered an 18 wheeler load of blank checks. Send me your addresses if you want in on the iatrogenic Coronavirus economic recovery plan.
     
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  19. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    Are we looking at an upcoming real estate crash?

    Yes factors: unemployment is way up and unfortunately may go much higher. People will lose their homes. This is tragic. A large number of homes will come onto the market. Chinese capital (which has greatly driven up real estate in the US) is likely to diminish. Businesses will go out of business on a massive scale. Therefore, the demand for commercial real estate will likely collapse.

    No factors: The Fed seems determined to keep interest rates near zero. The population is still high and climbing. People will have to live somewhere. The government may intervene and stop foreclosures and/or force forbearance by lenders. As risky and shaky as real estate may be, to many investors, it still looks a lot safer than stocks. Also, we haven’t really seen the massive overbuilding of housing we saw before some previous crashes. Demand may still outstrip supply. Finally, if big inflation does kick in, real estate will rise in price. (But interest rates will also rise...)
     
  20. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    If real estate crashes, then the young and poorer working class people will be able to buy homes. Homes will be less of a financial investment and more like what they are meant to be, shelter.
     
  21. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    The real estate market needs to be in the hands of professionals, not the idiots working for the federal government, but we will need to have the ability to issue bonds guaranteed by the federal government. (Guarantee is worthless, but so is FDIC insurance and people believe in both.)

    Had the federal government issued dirt backed bonds, the S&L crisis would have turned a profit, but the government grunts were too ******* stupid to understand that. Stories of them not knowing whom they were dealing with .are legend
     
  22. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

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  23. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 1,000+ Posts

    As of right now the Real Estate market is still in pretty solid shape. There is no spike in foreclosures. As an Appraiser I get the first call when someone is behind by 2 weeks. Not to say we won't see a spike, but as of now 99% of the work I'm doing is refinance loans by people taking advantage of the low interest rates. In San Antonio and the surrounding area there is still a shortage of houses for sale on the market.
     
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  24. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    I would think that banks are probably being pretty lenient on foreclosures to the extent that they can be. I think they realize that this is a temporary situation for most debtors and that they'll probably have a hard time reselling with huge numbers of people out of work. Obviously banks want people paying them interest. They don't want a bunch of neglected homes that are getting taxed.
     
  25. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Globalization resulted in interdependence rather than self- sufficiency, in exchange for “efficiency” growth, and profit. Now we find ourselves with a shortage of PPE for critically essential health care workers at the same time China may be hoarding masks. There may be an even more important segment of our economy that must have PPE immediately. The video references several sources. Yes, I’m fear-mongering, but don’t say I didn’t warn you if this does come about.
     
  26. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 1,000+ Posts


    I saw this coming long ago. We will have some shortages, but the heartland is still in good shape. The most difficult task is harvest. Just not enough people to help harvest the crops. Transportation of food is another issue, but both are easily fixable. Bigger issue is all those damn hogs in Texas and the South, they are destroying so many crops and and farm and ranch land that they are going to really add to the problem. I'm at a point now that I'm going to start carrying my Winchester 700 with me and every time I run into those little ******** I'm going to shoot it.

    If you are worried about shortages, go to Sams club and buy about 5 bags of 50 lb flour and rice. go to your local garden center and buy seeds for a garden, doesn't take much land to have a very effective garden. Pull out your fishing pole and head to your lake or coast and do a little fishing.

    My son in Arizona just bought 3 chickens, he is now getting about 24 eggs a week from them.


    It's sad how we have lost all ability to feed ourselves outside of going to the supermarket.
     
  27. Monahorns

    Monahorns 2,500+ Posts

    Globalization was never going to result in self-sufficiency. Those are 2 contradictory ideas.

    Interdependence through the division of labor is what all economy is based on and how the US has become super wealthy.
     
  28. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 1,000+ Posts

    In the 1950's and 60's, the US imported many products from Japan because they were cheap, then Japan became a Economic super power in the 80's. We started doing the same in Korea and China and now they are economic super powers.

    Time to help some African countries do the same.
     
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  29. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Most of the US prosperity took place at a time the US used protectionary policy to foster industrial growth. The interdependence through division of labor took place within our own borders; not by outsourcing labor and production elsewhere.

    Globalization financialized the economy. Production was offshored and outsourced and in its place came financialization. Wall Street gained immensely, debt became a primary vehicle to leverage finance, and the dollar’s role as reserve currency made it possible. Now financialization is becoming unwound and there isn’t enough “real economy” to fall back on. We will transition away from financialization (over opposition from Wall Street, Washington DC) back to nationalism and self-reliance but it will be rough sledding during the process.
     
  30. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Our exploratory research points to functional strategic contingencies. We need a more blue-sky approach to quality management concepts, and to homogenised reciprocal matrix approaches. Today marks the 20th anniversary celebration of our balanced policy programming. Forward-looking companies invest in dot-com transitional flexibility. This is no time to bite the bullet with our synchronised reciprocal resources. At base level, this just comes down to optional strategic consulting.
     

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