How can polls be so different? CNN headlines are that in their poll out today Obama is up by 8%. One other poll had Obama up by 15% I see other polls claiming "double digit" leads for Obama. Yet Gallup has a new poll today with McCain and Obama tied at 45% each? I expect a little variation, margins of error and different tactics. But 15 % vs zero %?
My guess is that the networks do a lousy job of managing polls. It's all about asking the question in a way that doesn't lead in one direction or the other, and it's all about getting the right sample. In addition, so many people change their minds on this issue from day to day, frankly it's a wonder to me how ANY of them would ever be accurate.
Couldn't be that certain polls try to gain an advantage for one candidate or the other??? Helps with fundraising and people love to hop on the bandwagon.
The Newsweek poll (15%) is RV, registered voters, so the weight they give to D,R, and Inds. is probably the most important factor. Same thing with the LA Times poll. Personally, I prefer polls of likely voters. Converse pretty much covered it though.
Also, for political polls, it depends on what time of day the poll is taken.... For example, one group may be easier to reach mid-day than another group. Unemployed or retired vs. employed. Women vs. men. Further, one group may be more likely to answer the phone and take part in a survey than another group.
I think all telephone polls are BS because only an idiot would answer their home phone to an unidentified caller and stay on after finding out it is a pollster. plus, a lot of people use only their cell phone.
Actually, there are clever ways to get around the cell phone problem that are currently being used. Also, for some reason polling on Saturdays favors Democrats. I witnessed it multiple times on tracking polls for campaigns.
I think if polls were taken during the day you would have a lot of people at home that are looking for a free lunch from the obama campaign.
Another question re: polls...do they make a positive contribution to the process of choosing a President...?
polling is important because it helps John McCain figure out which way the wind is blowing so he can adjust his strongly held positions.....
Of course, if the Zogby polls are different than the actual outcome of the election, he blames it on election fraud.
The only polls that have a major disparity are the Gallup (tied) and Newsweek (Obama +%15). One of these is biased.... and you have to go with Newsweek being the one that is wrong. I have read Newsweek my entire life. These last few years the magazine has become almost unreadable. I consider myself liberal, but the "liberal bias" in the magazine now is so over the top it stopped being a news magazine and a started reading like a propaganda leaflet. Its sad because Newsweek used to be intelligent, enlightening, and credible.
Wow. this poll for Texas now has it in single digits at a 5% difference: McCain 43% Obama 38% per TexasLyceum:The Link .
Housing bailout assures many Democrats will fix their problems. The ability to pick the right polling same will perplex pollers for a while. It's early. Durkakis was cruising at this point according to the polls.