Assuming an undefeated sec team (UF or Bama) ends up #1 in the BCS, everyone else is playing for #2 for a chance to go the title game. My anxiety level has risen after reading some of the predictions of worst case scenarios of Iowa passing texas even if we win out (hopefully). Can someone please explain that scenario to me and the others that are worried about this possibility? The mantra all year long was that if we win out we will be in the BCS championship game. I am alarmed to even fathom the possibility of that not being true. skc
wont the big 12 champ game pretty much take Texas over the top since it is an extra game. Big 10 has no champ game
Obviously, Iowa must win out. I don't think it matters much whether they do so convincingly or not. They have already looked unconvincing against several really, really sub-par football teams. Their opportunity for "style points" to impress voters is well past. However, the computers will continue to love them because of their relatively strong schedule and the fact that the computers are not allowed to consider margin of victory. I'm not sure that Iowa can gain much in the computers absent a loss by Florida, however. Right now, it is Boise State, TCU and Cincinnati that are holding Iowa down in the human polls, which is critical to Texas remaining #2 (or #3... that really doesn't matter as one of Florida or Alabama will lose). If Boise State, TCU, and/or Cincy fall, then Iowa will gain the human polls. It is unlikely that voters will vote a strong 1-loss team (such as Oregon) over an undefeated Iowa, with the possible exception of the SEC championship game loser. If Iowa gains a consensus #3 or #4 in the human polls, their strong computer advantage could give them the edge over an undefeated, consensus #2 in the human polls Texas. Iowa needs to lose. Absent that, TCU and Boise State must continue to win.
If Iowa beats Ohio State and rises to a near unanimous #3 in the final human polls, there is a chance they could pass Texas. They would have to be a near unanimous #1 in the computers polls (which they already are), and Texas would have to be #3 or worse in the computers (which is possible with the sorry strength of schedule we will have). Additionally, Texas would have to be a pretty solid #2 behind whoever wins the SEC. The more #1 votes for Texas, the better our chances. The computers are the only reason Iowa has a chance. The biggest hurdle for Iowa is making up human poll points. If they were to look impressive in beating Ohio State, all bets are off. I think it is possible that in the last regular season BCS poll, before the conference championship games, an undefeated Iowa could be ahead of Texas. Then the question would be how many computer points the SEC Champ and Texas could make up the following week. Bottom line: Until Iowa loses, style points do still matter for Texas.
I suggest that all of you who are closing your eyes and blindly assuming that if Texas wins out, the system somehow goes away and does not take into account what happens with other teams, do a little research. Understand the BCS system and how the numbers work. Think through how the voters will rank teams beyond Texas and how the computer ratings impact the system.
If Texas gets all the #2 votes from the humans and Iowa gets all the #3 votes from the humans, then we need to be less than 2 places behind Iowa in our average computer ranking to pass them in BCS. Edit: for perspective, we are currently 2.25 places behind Iowa in the computers...
Thanks LonghornGirlie, I had read your analysis on another post but didn't remember where. Anyway, it didn't make sense at the time, but this time it clicked. What is the likelihood of Iowa passing Boise State, TCU, & Cincinnati in the human polls if they all continue to win out (they are already ahead of Cincinnati in the Harris poll). Boise, TCU, and Cincinnati all win by large margins (usually) and Iowa usually just scrapes by--so in the human polls, they might not receive as much respect. I agree with most that Ohio State will beat Iowa, so hopefully this discussion is moot. skc
Prodigy, I agree the odds of Texas getting all #2 votes and Iowa all #3 votes is small... but I used that scenario to illustrate, because it's not unreasonable that the total points of both teams will be _close_ to equivalent (we'll get mostly 2's, some 1's, and a handful of 3's and 4's while Iowa would get mostly 3's, some 4's and a few 1's and 2's). Anyway, the bottom line is that IMO the computers are far from irrelevant.
If Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU all lose to let Iowa advance to #3 in the polls, they will also be allowing Texas to pass them in those computer rankings that have Texas low (Sagarin, KM and PW). Iowa gets closer in the polls; Texas gets closer in the computers. Poll margin will trump computer margin unless something odd happens.
I'm not saying that Iowa passing us is likely. I do think it is possible and enough of a concern that I would really prefer them to lose so I don't have to worry about it any more. The annoyance with the computers really is misdirected. It should be levied at the idiots on the BCS committee who tried to enforce political correctness on the computers in a misguided attempt to keep coaches from running up the score. The removal of the margin of victory component of the computer polls is what is messing this whole deal up and making the computers look out of whack. If you look at Sagarin's real (Preditor) model (not the portion of it that the BCS uses called ELO_CHESS), the top 5 are: Florida Texas Alabama Oregon TCU Iowa is rated 15th. In the portion of Sagarin that the BCS uses, the top 5 are Florida Iowa Cincinnati Oregon Boise State Texas is rated 9th. Nobody in their right mind, including Sagarin, thinks ELO_CHESS ought to be used as an appropriate rating on its own.
I almost wish for controversy though because it's yet another year the BCS messes up and could get scrapped
hmmm . . . political voting for and against us to aid/counteract the stupidity of the computer influence. the twin horns of what's most wrong with the bcs on front-line display.
Ohio State struggled with a pretty mediocre Navy, lost to USC at home, and lost to a VERY bad Purdue team on the road. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Iowa wins that game.
FWIW, Texas is currently at a 2.25 ordinal deficit to Iowa in the computers. That deficit is enough that, were it to stand, a consensus human poll #2 Texas would get passed by a consensus #3 human poll Iowa. Texas stands to gain more in the computers than Iowa. Iowa can only go up by passing Florida. If Iowa does beat Ohio State, we need to watch the computers closely to see if and in how many computers they do just that. A subsequent victory over Minnesota is unlikely to help them. If Iowa does beat tOSU, we will likely be rooting for Florida to win the SEC in order to help cap Iowa in the computer polls. If Florida were to lose, it is difficult to say whether Alabama would leapfrog Iowa in all the computers or not. Texas stands to gain from an Alabama loss as they are ahead of us in 2 computers (actually 3, but one is dropped). We are already on top of TCU and Boise State in most computers, so we really need them to keep winning to help keep Iowa down in the human polls. Several posters have made a good point that human voters can (and have) gerrymandered their votes to get a particular outcome in the BCS rating. Some folks are naive to think that the voters first priority, however, is getting the "right" two teams in the NCG. See the thread on The Politics Game for more info, but the bottom line is... well, the bottom line. The Big 10 coaches and loyalists are likely to rally behind getting Iowa into the NCG. The money and recruiting exposure is just too damn good, even if Iowa is likely to get their asses handed to them. It is hard to say if the Big 12 coaches and loyalists will do the same. We saw a lot of dissent last year, but that was between 2 Big 12 teams. Would the conference pull together to get Texas in to an NCG? The financial incentive is pretty weak. The only reason to do it is to try to open another BCS spot for a Big 12 team. It is unlikely that there will be another Big 12 BCS-eligible team this year, let alone one that is likely to get picked as an at-large team over some of the other attractive eligible teams (USC, Penn State, LSU/Alabama/Florida) Call me cynical, but I do not trust the human voters to "do the right thing"
all the more reason why it is very important that numerous national commentator types have recently been looking at us as the best in the nation. if that continues and somehow a moderate iowa goes ahead of us, that could be the kind of incendiary event that could galvanize the public and its president.
