one more thing. i hope mack is sweating this. surely he must see that he can't count on the big xii alone to provide sos. we absolutely have to play someone who looks pretty good in the pre-season. my fear, though, is that mack has to actually suffer harm before he can really feel need.
Also take into account that Ioway still has incredibly mediocre Northwestern and Minnesota teams to play. .and whether this will affect their computer ranking. Also.. Ohio State has Penn State this weekend. Suppose Penn State hands Ohio State its ***... Is Ioway going into Columbus playing an unranked Ohio State team? Therefore, even if Ioway wins, the impact is lessened by this factor.
Everybody should pay close attention to what LonghornGirlie has been saying in this thread and the "BCS: Numbers" thread. The comments are absolutely correct. R.J.
While there are "evil" forces in the Big Televen and Big 12 that might not do the right thing, nationally I believe the coaches will do the right thing and not deny Texas a trip to the Championship game that we were already robbed of last year. Let's hope tOSU makes it a moot point and that Mack beats the next teams by a large margin.
The vote that kept us out of the MNC last year wasn't the last vote, it was the next to last vote that kept us from winning the Big12 south and going to that champ game. That vote was kept secret so all sorts of shenanigans could have been going on. This year it will be the last vote that could keep us out, and that one will not be secret, so perhaps the coaches will be a little more careful to keep their politics and rivalries out of it.
Won't the FloBama loser take a ton of 3rd place votes from Iowa? Iowa is really 4th trying to get to 2nd. There is more than TCU, Cin, etc. in their way, wouldn't a 1 loss SEC team will also make it hard (impossible?) for them to get what they need from the voters?
I don't see how Iowa can pass Texas. In the ideal case for Iowa with Texas winning out, Florida has to win and pretty much everyone else they split votes with in the voter polls has to lose. When Alabama loses Texas picks up 0.2 versus Iowa since Bama is between us in 2 computer polls that count for Texas. Iowa needs Cincinatti to lose to pick up votes, but Texas picks up 0.2 points in the computers just like above. The only other team with a computer place between Texas and Iowa is Oregon. If Oregon loses that is another 0.1 point. But say Oregon wins out and doesn't steal voter poll votes from Iowa the computer ranking differential to Texas is 0.5 equivalent to 1.25 voter poll placings or 0.625 difference per poll Iowa would have to take either a bunch of 2nd place Voter poll votes from Texas to pass Texas in the BCS. Even after the FIU game I don't see an undefeated Florida slipping behind Iowa in the computer rankings. If Bama wins out Iowa may have a 0.7 computer advantage which is still less than 1 place in each voter poll. At the same time Texas should get enough first place votes that Iowa will have no possibility of closing to within 0.35 points in both voter polls. If any of Cincinnati, TCU or Boise St. go undefeated the Iowa cannot gain enough in the voter polls to make it an issue. At this point the probability is very high that at least one of those three goes undefeated. I can't say that it is impossible but I'm guessing the above adds up to a probability below 1%, not really worth worrying about. I just used Huck's matchup analyzer. It gave a probability of 0.943 that TCU goes undefeated, 0.880 for Boise St., and 0.498 for Cincinnat. That yields a probability of 0.3% that all three fail to go undefeated. That means a 99.7% chance that Iowa will be splitting their 3rd place votes with one or more other teams should they somehow remain undefeated..
TCU loses to Utah. Boise State loses to Idaho or Nevada. Cincy loses to Pitt. Alabama loses to LSU. LSU loses the SEC championship game. Iowa wins out. Final Human Polls: 1. Florida 2. Texas 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Alabama 6. Pitt 7. Georgia Tech, etc.
Florida leads Iowa as #1 over #2 in four computer polls and their schedule is about to go into the tank averaging 59.4 (assuming Alabama wins this weekend, otherwise it gets lower). Iowa's remaining opponents averages 42. Are you absolutely certain Iowa won't regain its #1 spot in one or more computer polls offsetting our gain with an Alabama loss?
Right now there is more room between us (.9227) and Iowa (.8407) than there is between Iowa and #8 Oregon (.7651). I am much more worried about us losing a game we shouldn't than Iowa passing us after we stayed unbeaten. Yes, it is possible that Iowa may pass us. It is also possible that I may get struck by lightning, but I don't think either is likely.
The normalization of the computer rankings has nothing has nothing to do with the extra game. The extra game comes into play in calculating each team's score in the individual computers. As best anyone can tell, the individual computer rankings (in particular the Sagarin) give a team a certain amount of "points" for each game they win, factoring in things like 1) the strength of the opponent and 2) where the game was played. One of the reasons Iowa has such a nice compute score right now is that they have played an extra game, and therefore have an extra win. It may not make a massive difference, but it makes some difference. By year's end, the other teams will have not only made up that extra game, but Florida (and Texas) will actually end up playing one more additional game. That's why it's not as simple as just looking at each team's remaining SoS to determine how the computer rankings will go. You also have to look at: 1) how many games the teams actually have left and 2) where those games will be played.
Raise your hand if you have considered that Texas might lose some computer points even if we win out. Go take a look at Billingsley (yes, I know Billingsley sucks) and tell me that at least one of those teams isn't going to pass us if they win out. I'll be happy if we maintain our current computer deficit. The human poll possibilities make it too close for comfort. I'll be a much happier girl once Iowa loses.
You are aware that each of the computers itself is normalized as part of its own system. They aren't adding up points each week so that teams with more games have a higher rating than teams with less games. That's the normalization of which I speak.
I think that it is possible for Iowa to pass TCU, Cinci, and Boise without any of them losing. That is the problem. That is why I think UT fans should be rooting for PSU this weekend (if they aren't at any rate). If PSU wins I think that effectively ends the doomsday scenario confronting an undefeated UT team.