As someone else pointed out, the math for this scenario is simple. Human polls count twice as much, so if Texas is roughly one spot ahead in the human polls and Iowa is roughly two spots ahead in the computer polls, then it is a dead heat in the BCS between Texas and Iowa.So the simple scenario is: Human Polls 1. Florida 2. Texas 3. Iowa Computer Polls 1. Iowa 2. Florida 3. Texas Now you may be of the opinion that this won't happen. But you cannot say it is not possible or even not plausible. Iowa has the strongest projected schedule strength of the three teams, and Texas has the weakest. Some seem to think it is impossible for Iowa to get virtually all of the #3 votes in the human polls. First, you cannot predict that as a certainty. If Iowa finishes undefeated as a Big 10 team, the human polls may very well bump them higher. All they have to do is put them in front of all the 1-loss teams as well as the mid-majors. Second, there is also no certainty that Texas will be no worse than 3rd in any of the computers. Texas may very well finish 4th or lower in a couple of the computers. If Iowa wins out, I sure hope we look pretty in our remaining games.
The question is one of relative computer strength. If playing a game can be MORE detrimental to a team relative to another team having a bye, my logic stands. Given the weakness of the Big XII north, I'm not at all certain that playing in that game will work in our favor relative to Iowa's bye.
Well that's obviously true, but that's exactly what I said also, in different words. I really don't think, as bad as the Big XII North is, that beating the best of the bunch will HURT Texas relative to Iowa. It may not provide a huge gain or anything, but it's not like we'll be beating UCF at home. It will be a neutral site game (which I think at least some of the computers consider as more valuable than a home game) against a major-conference team with a winning record.
Dub, I think we agree. The only point that I was trying to make is that extra games is not automatically a plus in the computers. It matters who you play. Iowa will see their biggest gain (if they win) during Ohio State week. If they do not jump over Florida in one of those 4 computers that week, it will be a good thing. The numbers are just close enough for Iowa that I'm a bit uneasy. That's the only thing I'm trying to say.
we have a conference championship game that will boost us over Iowa even if they win out. Given the reputation of the Big 10 the last few years... I think Iowa needs to stop having come from behind wins and shut out their last 3 opponents if they to have any shot.
Florida and Texas in the NC game..... no more questions, ifs, ands, or buts...... that's the way it's gonna be people!!! Everyone knows Texas travels well to bowl games, and I'm sure Florida will too!!! Enuf said!!!
If voters saw this possibility becoming more likely as the last few weeks passed, wouldn't they simply vote Texas #1 and Florida #2 to keep Iowa out? The article in the Des Moine paper someone linked basically said that the human voters are all saying that Iowa sucks. So wouldn't the national media start trumpeting the fact that Iowa could jump Texas and consequently cause voters to correct this possibility by simply flipping Texas and Florida?
