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Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Namewithheld, Feb 9, 2012.
Electric Car Happiness Will Turn To Fury When Real Range Becomes Clear (forbes.com)
That is surely discouraging for EV owners and potential owners.How many get stranded and what do they do?
"This "EV manufacturers are hoping that by the time sales reach the same level as internal combustion engines (ICE), technology might advance to a point where battery-electric cars can compete head-on, but there seems little chance of that any time soon."
This made me laugh
"To be fair, EY does concede that sales might be inhibited a bit by the huge upfront cost of an EV, the lack of a charging network, and range anxiety."
To be fair, most people don’t exceed their range on a daily basis. And if they did, it is a relatively short tow back to the house.
Anyone who buys an EV for a cross state or cross country trip is insane. Just rent an ICE if you had to.
But the reality of actual range so far short of listed range is a problem as EY points out.
We will get there. Free market can make it happen. Just not soon.
saw something about Texas trying to install EV charging every 50 miles along interstate. I'm for EV adoption but this is the sort of forced adoption that almost always ends up badly. My prediction... huge cost overruns, followed by a realization that (1) we've put these things mostly in the wrong places (2) they chose the wrong technology (adapters/voltage/etc) and now it must be redone.
Texas to install EV charging stations every 50 miles | Electronics360 (globalspec.com)
This is most definitely something the private sector and free enterprise should be driving instead of govt. From what i can see, their year 1 proposal has likely benefits. (covers the main arteries, I35/45/10/30) but year 2 and 3 come at a much higher cost with substantially less in likely return or EV adoption.
Saw an article about that the other day...TxDOT idiot suggesting people make a reservation in advance to prevent arriving to find both chargers (since it sounded like two at many locations) being used for an unknown length of time.
The absolute worst thing as a traveler that I want to do is have to find some map or app to show where I might need to be at a specific time so I can charge a battery and cool my heels for a half hour or longer. I'll keep paying attention to the fuel gauge, get off the highway when I need to fill up, and then be back on the road in a matter of minutes. Y'all can have the plugs...and the wait for the AAA flatbed.
This is a get rich quick boondoggle for some connected Republican politician. Traitors. Texas is full of Progressive Republicans at this point. Vote them out at primaries, like what didn't happen with Abbott, or the Libertarian Party is going to start electing people or swinging elections for Democrats inadvertently. Either way Rs need to shift way right if they want to stay in power.
Make a reservation for a charging station?
Who will enforce it?
Charging Station police?
Or will there be a Charting Station Maitre 'D?
I'm just waiting for the issues that arise when people show up and find out that the nozzle/plug has been damaged by some previous user (like happens with air machines at so many gas stations) or the card reader isn't working, since I am guessing these will require credit/debit card payment.
Which comes back to...wait for the AAA rollback.
Can you imagine the cost to electronically lock out the charging station except for the reservation? How passed would you be if you needed juice and stood there while the reserved car didn’t show up? Oh the possibilities.
As I've in said before, the charging station thing is dumb if they really want to boost electric vehicle ownership. You just can't charge fast enough. Long term, battery exchange has to become viable for most people to really transition.
Battery exchange would be super expensive. Charging stations are actually very inexpensive. There isn't much to them. I have taken a couple a part myself.
Battery packs are thousands of lbs. Motors would be super expensive. Drives and controls would be too. Then you would have to design a connection system that was robust enough to handle all the exchanges without damaging. Also, the connection system would have to automatically engage with a new pack.
The industry was looking at wireless charging in streets at one point. I don't think that is being pursued by anyone now. The problems were technical not even getting into the cost.
Hydrogen would solve a lot of these issues with electric cars but there are so many problems with scaling distribution and production. There really is no good long-term answer for decarbonization of consumer transportation.
there is an axiom in project management that you can have 2 of 3. good + cheap, but not quick. or you can have it quick + good but not cheap, and so forth. The problem with the Dem's is that they are imposing "quick" on the process and as a result we are going to struggle on cheap or good. Or in some cases a little of both. I still think EVs are the "long term" solution and they will all be plugins. My guess is 3-4 years before they are hitting 20% of new sales and 12-15 years before they are 95% of new sales. They are already 22% in EU.
Unlike the horseless carriage this switch won’t occur without Govt forcing it. Not saying there can’t be some adaption but complete conversion will happen only with coercion, which is precisely Biden’s direction. Make no mistake about it, everything happening in the economy is deliberate. The error may be in misunderstanding the degree of market reaction. Things sorta blossomed a bit too rapidly but they meant for everything to happen that is happening.
Of course it could be that they are so stupid they didn’t realize higher energy costs affect everything, not just the ICE fuel costs.
You nailed it with the last sentence.
Based on what? What benefit do EVs provide over normal cars?
Let's put a small nuke under every trunk!
Doc Brown was ahead of his time...
And you thought the Pinto explosions were bad....
What are Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)? | IAEA
It would certainly be a big deal and expensive, but I don't see a better alternative in the long haul. The charging is just too slow.
Hard to imagine the government letting people drive around with Uranium or Plutonium in their cars.
Have you not seen Back to the Future??????
Dumbest comment ever by Rod Babers on his show today. "Global warming caused a lot of Louisiana football talent to move to Texas. All those hurricanes have devestated cities."
Yes, Katrina caused a lot of migration specifically to Houston, but Louisiana has had no more storms on average in the last 15 years than the last 200. Let's please make educated public comments.
This should provide a good opportunity for point/counterpoint: have at it.
Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris
The utility companies have thus far had little to say about the alarming cost projections to operate electric vehicles (EVs) or the increased rates that they will be required to charge their customers. It is not just the total amount of electricity required, but the transmission lines and fast charging capacity that must be built at existing filling stations. Neither wind nor solar can support any of it. Electric vehicles will never become the mainstream of transportation! My neighbor bought a Tesla, and had the charging unit installed alongside his driveway. Besides the cost of the unit, his monthly electric bill has increased by 2/3!
The problems with electric vehicles (EVs), we showed that they were too expensive, too unreliable,
rely on materials mined in China and other unfriendly countries, and require more electricity than the nation can afford. In this second part, we address other factors that will make any sensible reader avoid EVs like the plague. EV Charging Insanity.
In order to match the 2,000 cars that a typical filling station can service in a busy 12 hours, an EV charging station would require 600, 50-watt chargers at an estimated cost of $24 million and a supply of 30 megawatts of power from the grid. That is enough to power 20,000 homes. No one likely thinks about the fact that it can take 30 minutes to 8 hours to recharge a vehicle between empty or just topping off. What are the drivers doing during that time?
CSC-Canada board member New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland describes why installing electric car charging stations in a city is impractical:
“If you’ve got cars coming into a petrol station, they would stay for an average of five minutes. If you’ve got cars coming into an electric charging station, they would be at least 30 minutes, possibly an hour, but let’s say its 30 minutes. So that’s six times the surface area to park the cars while they’re being charged. So, multiply every petrol station in a city by six. Where are you going to find the place to put them?”
The government of the United Kingdom is already starting to plan for power shortages caused by the charging of thousands of EVs. Starting in June 2022, the government will restrict the time of day you can charge your EV battery. To do this, they will employ smart meters that are programmed to automatically switch off EV charging in peak times to avoid potential blackouts.
In particular, the latest UK chargers will be pre-set to not function during 9-hours of peak loads, from 8 am to 11 am (3-hours), and 4 pm to 10 pm (6-hours). Unbelievably, the UK technology decides when and if an EV can be charged, and even allows EV batteries to be drained into the UK grid if required. Imagine charging your car all night only to discover in the morning that your battery is flat since the state took the power back. Better keep your gas-powered car as a reliable and immediately available backup! While EV charging will be an attractive source of revenue generation for the government, American citizens will be up in arms.
Used Car Market
The average used EV will need a new battery before an owner can sell it, pricing them well above used internal combustion cars. The average age of an American car on the road is 12 years. A 12-year-old EV will be on its third battery. A Tesla battery typically costs $10,000 so there will not be many 12-year-old EVs on the road. Good luck trying to sell your used green fairy tale electric car!
There are 3 of these batteries in a Tesla, so it’s $30,000 cost to replace, not $10,000! In addition, apparently the manufacturer says these will last up to 5 years, but they haven’t been around long enough to verify that. However, Teslas have been around long enough to find out that these batteries lose about 10% of their strength and life every year.
Tuomas Katainen, an enterprising Finish Tesla owner, had an imaginative solution to the battery replacement problem—he blew up his car! New York City-based Insider magazine reported (December 27,2021): “The shop told him the faulty battery needed to be replaced, at a cost of about $22,000. In addition to the hefty fee, the work would need to be authorized by Tesla…Rather than shell out half the cost of a new Tesla to fix an old one, Katainen decided to do something different… The demolition experts from the YouTube channel Pommijätkät (Bomb Dudes) strapped 66 pounds of high explosives to the car and surrounded the area with slow-motion cameras…the 14 hotdog-shaped charges erupt into a blinding ball of fire, sending a massive shock wave rippling out from the car…The videos of the explosion have a combined 5 million views.”
We understand that the standard Tesla warranty does not cover “damage resulting from intentional actions,” like blowing the car up for a YouTube video.
EVs Per Block In Your Neighborhood
A home charging system for a Tesla requires a 75-amp service. The average house is equipped with 100-amp service. On most suburban streets the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a single Tesla. For half the homes on your block to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly overloaded.
Although the modern lithium-ion battery is four times better than the old lead-acid battery, gasoline holds 80 times the energy density. The great lithium battery in your cell phone weighs less than an ounce while the Tesla battery weighs 1,000 pounds. And what do we get for this huge cost and weight? We get a car that is far less convenient and less useful than cars powered by internal combustion engines. Bryan Leyland explained why:
“When the Model T came out, it was a dramatic improvement on the horse and cart. The electric car is a step backward into the equivalence of an ordinary car with a tiny petrol tank that takes half an hour to fill. It offers nothing in the way of convenience or extra facilities.”
The electric automobile will always be around in a niche market likely never exceeding 10% of the cars on the road. All automobile manufacturers are investing in their output and all will be disappointed in their sales. Perhaps they know this and will manufacture just what they know they can sell. This is certainly not what President Biden or California Governor Newsom are planning for. However, for as long as the present government is in power, they will be pushing the electric car as another means to run our lives. We have a chance to tell them exactly what we think of their expensive and dangerous plans when we go to the polls in November of 2022.
Dr. Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition and former Science Director of The Heartland Institute. He is an internationally renowned scientist, author, and speaker who has testified before Congress on dozens of occasions on environmental issues and consulted with nearly every agency of the national government and many foreign countries. After graduating from Princeton University at the age of 20 with a degree in Geological Engineering, he received the nation’s first Ph.D. in Groundwater Hydrology from the University of Arizona. He later became executive director of the National Association of Groundwater Scientists and Engineers.
Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition, and a policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He has 40 years of experience as a mechanical engineer/project manager, science and technology communications professional, technical trainer, and S&T advisor to a former Opposition Senior Environment Critic in Canada’s Parliament.
You do not need to have an advanced degree in mathematics to understand the term “Overload”! The average person, no matter where you live, can quickly identify the political feel-good sensation that is being attempted by those short sighted individuals who are promoting the EV revolution….
Vehicle manufacturers, Charging station builders, Transmission Line contractors, Battery producers….etc. “It’s Magic”….and you are saving the planet by creating less pollution as you get rid of your gas burning vehicle and take out a five year loan to pay for the shiny new $60,000 electric car. No more fill-ups at the service station and the global warming is solved. You can now sit back and imagine the new polar ice formations that are providing a safe environment for the Polar Bears, Seals, Penguins that we all adore. We have done our part saving humanity…..and you can see the smile on little Greta Thunberg’s face! BUT WAIT….why are we losing power at our house?
Well the short answer is….We failed to understand that our electrical grid reached max capacity and was overloaded when all of the EV’s were plugged in tonight at the same time. The next short answer is…..where do you think the energy came from to supply the grid in the first place? It sure was not from Wind or Solar….nor from any other alternate energy source we use which, when all combined, only provides 7% of today’s use demand. It was from the traditional combustible resource called Hydrocarbons!
Until we discover a non-hydrocarbon energy source that is efficient and safe, GET OVER IT….we are committed to Oil & Gas!
Although the big American car manufacturers (GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc.), and the overly expensive foreign brands (Mercedes, BMW, etc.) have all jumped on board the electric car bandwagon, three of the biggest global manufacturers of cars purchased by the average-income buyer (Toyota, Honda, Subaru, etc.) have taken the position that Hybrids are ok, but the world cannot support fully electric cars for the foreseeable future!
The hard information in your post is sobering.
I think EVs will happen but I am adding a few more years to it
Yeah 67 but to my thinking it’s ‘only’ going to happen if forced by Bidenesque policies,ie, forced on us.