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Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Namewithheld, Feb 9, 2012.
Even Demx can't print enough money to make it happen in the foreseeable future
Like most articles this one is chock full of hyperbole and misrepresentations to lead to one conclusion.
1. Virtually all EV's have DC fast charging. There will be NO 8 hr stops to charge at filling stations
2. It makes the assumption that we are still primarily charging at filling stations. one of the primary benefits of an EV is that I can charge it at home overnight. Thus negating the need for 80-90% of filling stations stops.
3. The increase on the grid is a legit concern. It can be moderated by nighttime charging, but there will be an increase demand on the grid for sure.
a. the "max of 3 tesla's per neighborhood" is interesting. I'm dubious and I'm guessing that the author again assumed charging at peak times to hit the "overload" threshold. If you are charging at nighttime hours (10PM-7AM) then I'm doubtful 3 tesla's would overload the system.
4. Increased his bill by 2/3's tells me nothing. 2/3's of what. 2/3's of $100 = not a bad deal. 2/3's of $500 = more concerning.
5. dependency on China is problematic, but no more problematic than our dependency on the current oil bad boys (Iran, SA, Russua, Venezuela, etc)
6. other issues are legit but overstated
a. EV batteries last longer than what this author seems to assume. and they are still improving
b. Range is not equivalent to a "tiny petrol tank" on EV's. Most are above 250 miles. and there is even one from China that is reported to be 600 miles already.
Thanks BOrg, I knew there would be a counter.
Your 6a is certainly true, especially on the improving part but that range is optimal conditions, not sure the stated 250 miles rings true as a guarantee. The summers in Houston as an example.
Oh, and ok no 8 hours but don’t try and say it’s 30 minutes or less for a full charge even half the times you get a charge. Just isn’t true.
There are several factors at play but here is a decent rundown. How Long Does It Take to Charge an Electric Car? | U.S. News (usnews.com) There are still deficiencies in this tech but it is not as significant as that first article implied.
Level 1 - Easy at-home using existing home tech - = long slow but cheap
Level 2 - This is what most EV spots have now. Still slow (based on AC tech). this is what most EV owners put in their homes for overnight charge
Level 3 - DC (fast charging) 30-45. If I'm a "filling station" a DC charger is the only viable product. none of the others make remote sense.
If I'm a hotel, or restaurant or some other "extended stay" type entity, I'll probably have a Level 2 for customer convenience but I wouldn't consider myself a "filling station".
Here's a list of EV's by range. some still suck, but the median is about 250 miles. All-Electric Cars Listed By EPA Range From Lowest To Highest (insideevs.com)
so for a guy like me, who i think has pretty typical travel patterns (2017_nhts_summary_travel_trends.pdf (ornl.gov))
1. commute to/from work daily (80 mile roundtrip)
2. drives DFW to Austin about 10 times a year
3. drives to the coast about 3 times a year
so about 13 times out of an entire year, I'm going to have to rely on a "filling station" type of service. The rest I can just plug in overnight. So for a grand total of 6.5 hrs of wait time. (which it probably would have been 2.5 hrs even with ICE) I can have an EV. The whole "range anxiety" is really overblown for the typical driver.
**edit: I didn't even factor OUT, the wait time at the ICE pump from normal daily driving that I don't have to do now. So on net, i think EV's will cause me to actually spend less time at a "filling station" during the course of the year. A LOT LESS.
It's a very different issue if I'm a rural driver and I cover 150 miles a day on a regular basis. EV's are definitely not a good choice for them....for now.
And as I repeatedly argue....EV's are in their nascent phases. They have less than 2% of the market. The big auto makers only got on board in a significant way in the last 5 years. The evolution of this tech is just starting.
I don't have any wait times when I fill up...I couldn't even begin to tell you when the last time was that there was not an open pump. As such, even on an empty tank, I pull up and am filled in literally less than two minutes, counting my time walking to and from the nozzle...most pumps will run the 10GPM permitted by the federal nanny-state.
ok. fair enough. it is a short wait time, but based on my driving habits I'm doing that 5 min process, at least 1.5 times per week with an ICE. 52 x 1.5 = 78 times . plus a few more for the long trips. let's call it 90 ICE filling station stops per year. times 5 min each = 7.5 hrs of total wait time per year with ICE.
and obviously not every car will have this same trajectory. And past performance is not a guarantee of future improvements but I would point to the Tesla Model S. In 2012 it achieved only 139 mile range. The model S now achieves 345-370. In ten years it had an approximate 140% improvement in range. There are probably 10 times the number of engineers working these issues now as there were in 2010. If we only have half the tech advancement over the next decade we will see cars getting 600+ mile range. In 2016 their fast charger got you 50% in 20 min. now it gets that in 15 min. 25% improvement in 6 years.
What Tesla has done in that area of improvements is no doubt amazing but this is also true -
I have heard from too many EV friends that the claims are like EPA mileage claims, generally high and only achievable in optimum conditions. Nonetheless I don’t think we are fine with EVs I just don’t think they will be the savior the advocates profess. Mainly because wind and solar will not ever provide sufficient power to cover the need.
I don't disagree about wind/solar. I've long been an advocate for reigniting the small nuclear platforms.
Cry more libs!!!
I'm leaving on my vacation next Friday and heading to Glacier National Park in northern Montana. Round trip and with all the sight seeing I'll cover roughly 4,200 miles in 10 days with at least 3 days of 750--850 mile drives.
I love road trips and I'm not worried about time at a gas station. When an electric vehicle becomes more cost effective and can handle that kind of driving I'll consider it. Meanwhile I'm being punished with higher gas prices because of an agenda.
Sounds sort of like my winding route to and from Vegas last August...left out of Vegas up through the border between Utah and Arizona, meandering between both States on some winding roads and then then ultimately over to Page for the night. Came south and went over to the Navajo Nation Museum and back to my route...not a whole lot out there other than shoulders to the road.
And there was also the big sign at the edge of what used to be part of the old route 666 about no services and no patrols at night. Three hours or so of twisties that had 10MPH hairpins with no guard rails...dropping out in some mining community that also didn't exactly have a lot to offer in the way of gas or other vehicle options...
That one was about 3700 miles as I recall...I kept a log that had mileage and expenses.
That's funny. My pastor is up there now, starting driving on Monday. He was a bit intimidated by the distance.
This will be the longest drive I've ever done. Most of the time I keep it around 2,500 miles. We're doing Cheyenne, Jackson/Grand Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier with other side adventures as we discover them driving through the mountains. That 28 hour drive back which will be split over 3 days is what worries me because I haven't really set a plan for it. I'm estimating about $1,100 in fuel alone. Thanks Brandon!
Safe travels. Sounds like a great trip to me.
Obviously an EV is not the right car for that trip. I would suggest that there are a couple of ways that plays out.
1. if you take this type of trip more than once per year and you like driving your own vehicle, then you should likely not buy an EV until they get 400+ miles per charge and there is a EV "filling station" frequently along that route.
2. For myself, I already rent a vehicle if/when i'm taking a long road trip so I would suggest that there will always be a few ICE vehicles in the rental fleet for these infrequent but high mileage trips. I have an EV for my primary/daily driver (which is 98% of what i need) and then i rent something when i need a specialized capability like driving across the country.
I'm certainly not saying that you should be forced to switch to an EV. I have repeatedly said as much. All I'm saying is that 98% of the driving we do is currently satisfied by the PERFORMANCE metrics of most current EVs. Much of resistance on Performance grounds is hyperbole. There are certainly cost hurdles to overcome and there is certainly a bit of EV-marketing hyperbole for some manufacturers regarding some elements of battery/range, recharge times, recharge cycles, etc.
I do think there is something to the CC logic, but my bigger reason is National Security. I think it is in our long term interest to need a lot less oil. We make way too many decisions based on "national interest" (meaning our need for oil). If we had an energy structure dominated by Nuclear and our transportation sector was mostly EV, we would be much more secure as a nation and much less prone to get our butts involved in conflicts around the world.
No wonder prices at HEB have gotten so high.
They would have a field day in DC. But I noticed they also say hybrids and EVs are also contributors. Hmmmm
Close to exactly the same trip he is taking. Funny.
Lol, this morning we decided our route back would be through little big horn to see the Custer monument, stay in Casper and catch an independence league game, stay in Amarillo and do a drive by of Palo Duro Canyon (drive by mainly due to time constraints) then back home. We're also considering catching a ball game in Laramie on our way up. We love seeing these old historic small ball parks, but we have to convince our daughter. Her ex boyfriend is playing this summer for that Laramie team and she doesn't want him to see her and think she came just to see him.
If he's doing that too we should probably be friends.
If you are hitting up Amarillo, you may as well check out a Sod Poodles game...
Yes, that IS the name of their team...Sunday unis are/were tagged as the Soddies.
If we have time, we might!
For one of the first times ever, I saw a place with ethanol-free gas at a time when I needed some go-go juice in the vehicle. QuikTrip in Bastrop, by the way...
Posted price was $5.249 but was on the pump for a penny less, compared to $4.199 for regular unleaded and $4.699 for premium (which is what I usually put into the F-Type). I only put in eight gallons since 1) I hate paying that much and 2) it was only 90 octane, compared to 93 for premium.
Since the car has 78K miles, all but a few hundred put on by me, I have a pretty good idea of expectations between Houston and Austin and vice-versa. And my usual drive is around 80-85MPH since it is a posted 75MPH for a good chunk of the drive.
Running the A/C, in 100 degree temps according to the dash, and 80-85MPH much of the 158 miles drive, I saw an increase of close to 2MPG using lower octane ethanol-free over the 93 that usually goes in and is likely E10 or E15.
I haven't done all of the math to see if it works out with a cost differential, but it was enough to make me consider hitting up the QT in Conroe a few times. Supposedly, Buc-ee's out I10 has 92 octane, but that is too far out of the way.
Based on my sample size of eight gallons, seems like maybe the government ought to focus on keeping the grain for food and not fuel...drill baby drill, and keep the pure stuff in the tanks.
Wait now. Just hold on a minute. Are you suggesting we can EAT corn instead of putting it in our gas tanks? I'm going to need some links or something for proof of this outlandish statement.