'I Feel Duped on Climate Change'

[lkainer]

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

Goldman EV battery trend analysis and forecast

With this trend even replacing vehicle batteries will be economical enough that EV's will be more cost effective than ICE vehicles to own over their useful life.

EV share of global market grew 20%

 

[mchammer]

Many pages ago in this thread, someone made a post about what exactly are the criticisms to the global warming consensus. For one, the alarmists won’t debate a critic. And two, read this:

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

Many pages ago in this thread, someone made a post about what exactly are the criticisms to the global warming consensus. For one, the alarmists won’t debate a critic. And two, read this:

Good article and it certainly undermines the idea that this is "settled science" but what he never does in this article is say that it is not happening. He merely says that they models are incomplete and the scientist played fast and loose with the data in order to convey a level of certainty that was not there. There are a number of climate indicators (evidence) that suggest it is happening and that man is partially to blame. A robust discussion/debate is warranted. That is not helped by a POTUS (and a party) that have adopted the approach of shutting down debate with the "climate is a hoax" and "new Green Scam" mantra. It is not smart for us to redirect all of our resources to alt energy and other green initiatives without a higher degree of confidence, but it is likewise not smart of us to dismiss the indicators that are there and stick our heads in the sand because it doesn't suit our current economic interests.

 

[mchammer]

Good article and it certainly undermines the idea that this is "settled science" but what he never does in this article is say that it is not happening. He merely says that they models are incomplete and the scientist played fast and loose with the data in order to convey a level of certainty that was not there. There are a number of climate indicators (evidence) that suggest it is happening and that man is partially to blame. A robust discussion/debate is warranted. That is not helped by a POTUS (and a party) that have adopted the approach of shutting down debate with the "climate is a hoax" and "new Green Scam" mantra. It is not smart for us to redirect all of our resources to alt energy and other green initiatives without a higher degree of confidence, but it is likewise not smart of us to dismiss the indicators that are there and stick our heads in the sand because it doesn't suit our current economic interests.

If you said that 10 years ago, you would have been cancelled. The other issue is that compared to 10-20 years ago, future population is projected to be much less. Thus the impact of global warming is reduced. Also, if you advocated nuclear power 10-20 years ago, you would have been burned at the stake. It makes you wonder if the “alarmists” were right about anything. Also, note how the liberal left doesn’t challenge their looney brethren, like the woke folk. Seems all ideological-based nonsense. Finally, CFC’s (Freon) was banned decades ago due to harm to the ozone layer. The ban is now global and there has been no improvement in the ozone hole over the Antarctic. They keep saying another 10-20 years before you see the impact. The environmental movement has been hikacked by grifters, rent seekers, and communists.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

If you said that 10 years ago, you would have been cancelled. The other issue is that compared to 10-20 years ago, future population is projected to be much less. Thus the impact of global warming is reduced. Also, if you advocated nuclear power 10-20 years ago, you would have been burned at the stake. It makes you wonder if the “alarmists” were right about anything. Also, note how the liberal left doesn’t challenge their looney brethren, like the woke folk. Seems all ideological-based nonsense. Finally, CFC’s (Freon) was banned decades ago due to harm to the ozone layer. The ban is now global and there has been no improvement in the ozone hole over the Antarctic. They keep saying another 10-20 years before you seek the impact. The environmental movement has been hikacked by grifters, rent seekers, and communists.

article - ozone layer improving

There is certainly a ton of noise in the signal and many on the left want to act like evidence equals proof (they aren't the same), but there is enough evidence that we should not shut down the discussion or the scientific pursuit. The earth is obviously a super large and complex system. It's not like there is a sphygmomanometer big enough to wrap it around the equator. Measuring such an enormous and complex system is bound to be less than 100%.

 

[mchammer]

article - ozone layer improving

There is certainly a ton of noise in the signal and many on the left want to act like evidence equals proof (they aren't the same), but there is enough evidence that we should not shut down the discussion or the scientific pursuit. The earth is obviously a super large and complex system. It's not like there is a sphygmomanometer big enough to wrap it around the equator. Measuring such an enormous and complex system is bound to be less than 100%.

Like I said, it’s always 10-20 years away:

“By something like 2035, we might see a year when there’s no ozone hole depletion at all in the Antarctic. And that will be very exciting for me,” she says. “And some of you will see the ozone hole go away completely in your lifetimes. And people did that.”

 

[mchammer]

article - ozone layer improving

There is certainly a ton of noise in the signal and many on the left want to act like evidence equals proof (they aren't the same), but there is enough evidence that we should not shut down the discussion or the scientific pursuit. The earth is obviously a super large and complex system. It's not like there is a sphygmomanometer big enough to wrap it around the equator. Measuring such an enormous and complex system is bound to be less than 100%.

This is no guarantee that the ozone hole completely fixes itself. At best, it says there may be a slight improvement, which raises the question if the effort was worth the economic price:

“The researchers started with simulations of the Earth’s atmosphere and generated multiple “parallel worlds,” or simulations of the same global atmosphere, under different starting conditions. For instance, they ran simulations under conditions that assumed no increase in greenhouse gases or ozone-depleting substances. Under these conditions, any changes in ozone should be the result of natural weather variability. They also ran simulations with only increasing greenhouse gases, as well as only decreasing ozone-depleting substances.

They compared these simulations to observe how ozone in the Antarctic stratosphere changed, both with season, and across different altitudes, in response to different starting conditions. From these simulations, they mapped out the times and altitudes where ozone recovered from month to month, over several decades, and identified a key “fingerprint,” or pattern, of ozone recovery that was specifically due to conditions of declining ozone-depleting substances.”

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

This is no guarantee that the ozone hole completely fixes itself. At best, it says there may be a slight improvement, which raises the question if the effort was worth the economic price:

In this case it was worth the economic price, as it is in most cases when we stop doing harmful environment things. The same companies are largely in the same businesses and still making money, they are just producing their products with less harmful chemicals. Is there short-term pain to making decisions that are better for our world long term....very often the answer is yes. But as our current POTUS likes to say regarding our use of tariffs, we'll just have to make do "with three or four dolls instead of 30" for a little while.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

For those that like to use China's use of coal and such as a reason why the US can't/shouldn't strive for lower emissions....

China emissions

"China has been installing renewable energy at a spectacular rate and now has more renewable capacity than the next 13 countries combined, and four times that of its closest competitor, the US. "

While it is not as much as is needed, it is moving in the right direction. They've dropped them 1% due to the aggressive approach to renewables. They are truly taking an "all-of-the-above" approach while we (the GOP) go out of way to squash alt energy.

The energy demand for all this new tech (AI, data centers, etc) is going to be enormous. making self-limiting choices is not smart.

 

[mchammer]

For those that like to use China's use of coal and such as a reason why the US can't/shouldn't strive for lower emissions....

China emissions

"China has been installing renewable energy at a spectacular rate and now has more renewable capacity than the next 13 countries combined, and four times that of its closest competitor, the US. "

While it is not as much as is needed, it is moving in the right direction. They've dropped them 1% due to the aggressive approach to renewables. They are truly taking an "all-of-the-above" approach while we (the GOP) go out of way to squash alt energy.

The energy demand for all this new tech (AI, data centers, etc) is going to be enormous. making self-limiting choices is not smart.

Freon was a lot less flammable than the current replacement. People have been burned alive because of this.

 

[mchammer]

Freon was a lot less flammable than the current replacement. People have been burned alive because of this.

Fortunately the driver of this Ford truck got rescued before being burned alive (cops came 1 minute later to smash the door window and pry the door open.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Where is the proof that the ozone hole wasn't always there?

 

[mchammer]

Where is the proof that the ozone hole wasn't always there?

There is not. Humans started observing the hole when they launched satellites in the late 1970’s and par for the course they blamed humans.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

There is not. Humans started observing the hole when they launched satellites in the late 1970’s and par for the course they blamed humans.

Exactly.

 

[Monahorns]

Did y'all here that increasing solar and wind shut down the grid in Spain and Portugal? Well they did, because they don't provide grid inertia or reactive power, both needed to keep the grid running.

The old grid of rotating machines worked much better for much less money. No reason to get away from what worked.

 

[nashhorn]

That would be funny if not true.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Did y'all here that increasing solar and wind shut down the grid in Spain and Portugal? Well they did, because they don't provide grid inertia or reactive power, both needed to keep the grid running.

You mean sometimes it's not windy or sunny? Wow. Who would have thought?

 

[mchammer]

You mean sometimes it's not windy or sunny? Wow. Who would have thought?

In the case of the blackout, the reverse was true: too much sun and wind which caused grid instability.

 

[Monahorns]

In the case of the blackout, the reverse was true: too much sun and wind which caused grid instability.

Yeah. Wind and solar bite you in the butt in both directions.

 

[mb227]

Al Gore was laying the groundwork for his climate grift even back then...

 

[mb227]

Goldman EV battery trend analysis and forecast

With this trend even replacing vehicle batteries will be economical enough that EV's will be more cost effective than ICE vehicles to own over their useful life.

EV share of global market grew 20%

That article is filled with a lot of 'could' and 'may' language and notes the current subsidizing (read as MY tax dollars funding someone ELSE'S choice).

I will stick with my six fully paid-for ICE vehicles that don't require huge annual investments and don't require hours off the road during travel.

 

[VYFan]

For those that like to use China's use of coal and such as a reason why the US can't/shouldn't strive for lower emissions....

China emissions

"China has been installing renewable energy at a spectacular rate and now has more renewable capacity than the next 13 countries combined, and four times that of its closest competitor, the US. "

While it is not as much as is needed, it is moving in the right direction. They've dropped them 1% due to the aggressive approach to renewables. They are truly taking an "all-of-the-above" approach while we (the GOP) go out of way to squash alt energy.

The energy demand for all this new tech (AI, data centers, etc) is going to be enormous. making self-limiting choices is not smart.

I was skeptical as I started this mushy vague article by the good PhD from Cal Berkeley. Sure enough, when I looked at the graph he made, and factored in all of the caveats he put in in the last paragraphs, the evidence he puts forth isn’t telling us anything meaningful. Yet, somehow he wrings a message out of it to support a political viewpoint.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

In the global picture, it really doesn't matter what DJT or the GOP do to shut down alt energy or EV's in the US. No one else is going along and certainly not China who leads in both markets. All the GOP is doing by trying to hinder these technologies is putting the US deeper in a tech deficit.

BYD 5 minutes gives 250 miles
"This results in roughly 250 miles (400 km) of range in five minutes. That’s quicker than going to your nearest gas station for a quick refill. BYD's new 1-megawatt flash chargers will officially roll out in China first, with 4,000 new fast charging stations to be built across the country."

BYD’s new Seagull is available in three trims.

BYD Seagull Honor Edition trim	Starting Price	Range (CLTC)
Active	$9,700 (69,800 yuan)	190 mi (305 km)
Free	$10,500 (75,800 yuan)	190 mi (305 km)
Flying	$12,000 (85,800 yuan)	252 mi (405 km)

 

[VYFan]

In the global picture, it really doesn't matter what DJT or the GOP do to shut down alt energy or EV's in the US. No one else is going along and certainly not China who leads in both markets. All the GOP is doing by trying to hinder these technologies is putting the US deeper in a tech deficit.

BYD 5 minutes gives 250 miles
"This results in roughly 250 miles (400 km) of range in five minutes. That’s quicker than going to your nearest gas station for a quick refill. BYD's new 1-megawatt flash chargers will officially roll out in China first, with 4,000 new fast charging stations to be built across the country."

BYD’s new Seagull is available in three trims.

​

BYD Seagull Honor Edition trim	Starting Price	Range (CLTC)
Active	$9,700 (69,800 yuan)	190 mi (305 km)
Free	$10,500 (75,800 yuan)	190 mi (305 km)
Flying	$12,000 (85,800 yuan)	252 mi (405 km)

Countries generally act in their own best interests, so a nation like the USA that has abundant oil and gas will naturally not need alternative energy like wind or solar as much as countries without those resources. A place like Israel will naturally pursue desalination of sea water, e.g. In America, alternative energy is just a hobby—justifiable only as a distant R&D need or to placate hysterical climate fearmongers or those who get rich off their fears.
Moreover, China is combatting a serious air pollution problem in its cities (I don’t mean CO2, but smog). That also motivates them to switch to electric cars—and they also don’t have the level of sunk costs into ICEs we have.

 

[VYFan]

In the global picture, it really doesn't matter what DJT or the GOP do to shut down alt energy or EV's in the US. No one else is going along and certainly not China who leads in both markets. All the GOP is doing by trying to hinder these technologies is putting the US deeper in a tech deficit.

BYD 5 minutes gives 250 miles
"This results in roughly 250 miles (400 km) of range in five minutes. That’s quicker than going to your nearest gas station for a quick refill. BYD's new 1-megawatt flash chargers will officially roll out in China first, with 4,000 new fast charging stations to be built across the country."

BYD’s new Seagull is available in three trims.

​

BYD Seagull Honor Edition trim	Starting Price	Range (CLTC)
Active	$9,700 (69,800 yuan)	190 mi (305 km)
Free	$10,500 (75,800 yuan)	190 mi (305 km)
Flying	$12,000 (85,800 yuan)	252 mi (405 km)

China’s advances in battery technology is important, for cars and for municipal storage on large scale, but this fast recharge technology for the new cars you refer to is a long way from being available and practical. They have to build all the new technology stations all over China, for one thing. But hats off to them for their progress.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

it really doesn't matter what DJT or the GOP do to shut down alt energy or EV's in the US.

Big difference between what you are claiming and ending subsidies.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

Countries generally act in their own best interests, so a nation like the USA that has abundant oil and gas will naturally not need alternative energy like wind or solar as much as countries without those resources. A place like Israel will naturally pursue desalination of sea water, e.g. In America, alternative energy is just a hobby—justifiable only as a distant R&D need or to placate hysterical climate fearmongers or those who get rich off their fears.
Moreover, China is combatting a serious air pollution problem in its cities (I don’t mean CO2, but smog). That also motivates them to switch to electric cars—and they also don’t have the level of sunk costs into ICEs we have.

I would suggest that "countries" act based on what a few people at the top decide and a few people at the top act in their own best interest. That's why we see the crypto crew, the tech titans and energy elite spend so much time and money cozying up to politicians of both stripes. That's why we see our leading technology companies and so many manufacturers move their stuff to China/overseas. That is in their best interest as companies and CEO's. It certainly wasn't in "the countries best interest".

 

[VYFan]

I would suggest that "countries" act based on what a few people at the top decide and a few people at the top act in their own best interest. That's why we see the crypto crew, the tech titans and energy elite spend so much time and money cozying up to politicians of both stripes. That's why we see our leading technology companies and so many manufacturers move their stuff to China/overseas. That is in their best interest as companies and CEO's. It certainly wasn't in "the countries best interest".

Well I agree with you in all this, but we were talking about China, and more than almost all other countries, is controlled by a very few people, all of whom regularly happen to be meeting together or in communication. The decisions of that group pretty much define what China thinks its best interests are. That group (we’ll call them “China”) knows it does not have enough oil and gas to survive—dependent on Russia; not comfortable—so it of course has a different value placed on alternative energy than USA, which has all it needs. Right?

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

China's very cheap sodium battery

$10 per kWh compared to Tesla (lithium) @ $75 per kWh
10,000 cycles compared to Tesla 1,500 cycles

These are not Lab results. This is already real-world in use.

By intentionally hindering EVs and alt energy research we (the GOP) are undermining ourselves in the long run