Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Chop, Nov 30, 2021.
Those economies are bad for everyone not connected with the corrupt government. Sorry your arguments are rife with MSM propaganda, and they hold no water.
I get 130-140% annual return on my investments AFTER this 2022 bear market. That beats many hedge funds. I am not buying MSM narratives. You'll have to find someone else to convince!
Sounds like CBDC, BRICS reserve currency, or Bitcoin. One of those is going to follow after the USD is no longer global reserve currency. Which one is the question. To me CBDC is straight Tyranny. Too many central banks and governments to stop Bitcoin from being a reserve currency. So that leaves BRICS reserve currency. Let's see what happens. Eventually, I think all roads lead to Bitcoin, but we probably start with BRICS. CBDC is dead on arrival. That is armageddon. At least let's agree on no CBDC. And apart from McHammer, USD long term is not an option.
Natural gas prices now below $3 per mmbtu. As cheap as it has ever been (excluding Covid).
Biden and crew must be sooooo pissed.
Inflation getting close to being under the federal funds rate. Fed meeting is next week and is expected to raise rates to 4.75%.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index edged up 0.1% last month. In the 12 months through December, the PCE price index increased 5.0%. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.3%. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.4% on a year-on-year basis in December.
Probably this 0.25% hike, then maybe one more 0.25% bump, then sit on it for a while...
I predict they sit for 3 months after the next hike. The past hikes are working and not all of them have had their full impact yet.
Yeah. That's probably the next most likely path.
CPI has to get BELOW FFR (Fed Funds Rate). Then rates will start dropping. The treasury has to print over a trillion per year just to cover US debt service. Until CPI is below FFR, Powell cannot drop rates. This is a trap. Our currency is screwed. Also, China re-opening from their covid restrictions adds Oil demand big time. Oil drives inflation! I bet CPI prints a little higher in Feb and we get a 25 bps rate hike. This takes time. Let's see what happens. Our monetary system is in serious trouble! But the BRICS reserve currency will be very helpful! If Powell drops rates too soon. Inflation will rocket, and the stock market will crash. I don't care what MSM says. This one time, they were spot on!
If you keep raising rates, how do you get out of control inflation? How do you print money if you are raising the Fed rate at the same time? This is crazy talk.
Also, the CPI is already below the fed funds rate in the last 6 months. SMH.
The treasury has to print over a trillion per year just to cover US debt service.
Get ready for higher future tax rates.
What a complete misunderstanding of what the man said. When he says Weimar, he is referring to high debt, not high inflation. Second, he declares at the onset that inflation is over, thus there is room to lower fed rates in the future. Third, you can keep rates high and slow down spending. None of the above is alarming.
Treasury doesn’t print money to cover debt. They issue bonds paid by investors. Another distortion.
This has zero to do with currency. It has to do with debt and taxes. You are a hammer and everything looks like a nail to you.
The financial nut cases are right 1 year out of 7. However, for the other 6 years, you listen to them at your peril.
Isn't the interest he is speaking of interest being paid to Treasury bonds etc?
This is way above my mental grade
CPI is still 6-7% right?
The Fed prints money to buy the bonds. It really doesn't matter how you slice it. They two work together to increase the money supply.
Weimar Republic was the highest inflation in History. I have complete understanding of this and you are 100% off base. Sadly, you are misinforming Hornfans too. I cannot tell you what Powell will do. We need a new monetary system, that is the answer. This one is hopeless. We must end the Fed! You may think that is radical which is fine. But if Powell pauses now, lowers rates later on the inflation will go up faster. Right now CPI which is less than half real inflation, is 6.5%. FFR is 4.5%. So once again, your wrong, CPI is much higher than FFR. In February we will see what CPI does. Likely it goes up a little due to China re-opening.
Keep in mind, they move the goal posts often on how CPI is calculated. Inflation is a major factor and deflation is not. Tech Sector is deflationary but that is about it. Food and Energy are the big problems.
Anyone named Carl Menger gets my follow.
Only on a 12 month basis - it’s backward looking.
The Fed is unloading its balance sheet at the moment.
Do you understand the difference in annualized CPI over a 12 month period vs 6 month period? Apparently you don’t.
The issue is what the person on CNBC meant when he was referring to the Weimar Republic. He was referring to the debt level, not inflation. Did you not hear the man say inflation (particularly housing) is deflating like energy? How is deflation and Weimar Republic remotely similar? It’s not, which is why he was referring to Weimar debt.
Yes, it’s about paying off interest to creditors. This has very little to do with currency. Those who have fed derangement syndrome think all issues boil down to currency, fiat money, and currency reserve status.
Energy is inflating. Barry Sternlicht mentioned rents as coming down. He did say inflation has peaked. Maybe for the immediate term and short term. Yes, but mid term and long term. Absolutely not. In my area, Sugar Land, housing prices have not come down much if at all. I am not a renter but I know rents are coming down. However, as Oil increases by the fall this could be reversed, maybe by summer. Largely depends on what the Fed does. I am looking longterm and macro, you are looking short term and micro. That is the difference. Unbacked fiat currency is a Ponzi scheme. Boom, bust, lie, repeat. That is all this is. The media is owned by the central banking families and they do what they are told.