INFLATION

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Chop, Nov 30, 2021.

  1. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    You forgot the end of prohibition on home brewing. He started the craft beer craze.
     
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  2. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    I agree with the warm feelings for Carter, while recognizing his general ineffectiveness—especially with regard to the energy crisis and inflation. Nice guy, smart guy, but we could’ve done better for a President.

    My point in posting his photo by Biden’s is to compare Joe to Jimmy when it comes to high inflation (in this thread “INFLATION”). There were the Iran hostages, but high inflation really played a huge role in his downfall and his legacy. High gas prices also drove much of the Carter era high inflation. We’re seeing that with Joe too.
     
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  3. washparkhorn.2

    washparkhorn.2 < 25 Posts

    Agree with the substance, especially the italicized. Debasement is a prominent feature of our economy. GPD must keep up with the debasement or the whole thing implodes I believe is the "grand plan" of things. If I recall correctly, Nero's economic fiddling was debasement of silver coins producing 1,000% inflation.

    But you said it much better.
     
  4. washparkhorn.2

    washparkhorn.2 < 25 Posts

    I made a lot moldy beer in the craze.
     
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  5. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Maybe

    bitcoin
     
  6. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

  7. AC

    AC 2,500+ Posts

     
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  8. AC

    AC 2,500+ Posts

    I post to Twitter and on my website neutralatm.com under blogs. I have been beating the inflation drum since last summer. Today's blog will focus more on inflation. It's a global issue, not just US. This end of the fiat currency fourth turning, fourth industrial revolution is also why Covid 19 was released from a lab in Wuhon. All related!
     
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  9. AC

    AC 2,500+ Posts



    Pierre Rochard is the voice (one of them) on this video. UT class of 2013 I think. He's a smart young man!
     
  10. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    INFLATION. It's the thief who keeps on thieving.

    We should just not do it, right?
     
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  11. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    There’s a delicate balancing act. We don’t want deflation—see Japan. But we don’t want high inflation, and that’s been the problem for the last year. With the $$$ floodgates still wide open, I don’t see it ending soon.

    Things that will mitigate high inflation—spur on the energy markets and industry to get those fuel prices down. (We’ve been doing the exact opposite). Permit more building to get housing price inflation in check. Permit more lumber extraction from public lands—helps housing by quashing lumber price inflation. Allow more imports (that can create other problems though…). Get the Fed to SLOWLY pull back on the easy $$$—NOT cold turkey though. No massive interest rate hikes. Ease into it.

    Stuff that does NOT work: wage and price controls. Rent controls.
     
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  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Deflation is a bogeyman Leftists have created to justify inflation. It's a complete myth that it is something to be feared that all sober adults should reject out of hand.

    2% inflation in 20-30 years cuts your money's value in half. That was the target. To steal half your money every 25ish years. But Keynesians have us all scared of deflation. Deflation let's you buy more over time just by holding onto your money.

    Inflation incentivizes consumerism, short term thinking, instant gratification. Deflation incentivizes saving, patience, and long term planning.
     
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  13. washparkhorn.2

    washparkhorn.2 < 25 Posts

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  14. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    While I appreciate your interesting and unorthodox perspective, I must strongly disagree, based, in part, on historical precedence.

    Deflation has worked VERY POORLY for Japan.

    The last time we were in a significant deflation -- the Great Depression.

    HIGH inflation can be even worse, but make no mistake about it, actual and prolonged Deflation is a negative. A flattish, low inflationary environment is good. Hence the balancing act. Still doubt it--I'm not here to educate you, and (like every poster on these sports boards), I don't know it all. But please set up an appointment during office hours to speak with any member of the Economics Department at the University. Any single one of them. Not in Austin? Then try the best university in your area. Offer to bring them lunch, or something. Surely one will talk with you.

    Don't fall for charlatans and hacks who would actually promote deflation.

    https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap70c.pdf

    Deflation generation: Japan’s budget-minded consumers keep price hikes in check

    After 20 years, Japan still stuck in deflationary mindset: Kuroda
     
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    Last edited: Dec 6, 2021
  15. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    The "deflation" you talk about was actually prices adjusting back to a more natural level after the economy crashed. It was a symptom not a cause. The cause was money supply increase which inflated prices in the 20s and then the Fed decreased the interest rate. That is what caused the deflation. Then Hoover and FDR tried to prop up prices and that caused shortages another depression within the original one.

    I'm not interested in listening to Keynesians. They are fundamentally wrong on this issue.
     
  16. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Is deflation the actual cause of Japan's economic problems or simply something that's correlating with Japan's economic problems? I'm not saying that deflation can never hurt an economy. It probably could if it got out of hand. However I've never heard a persuasive case why a modest amount of deflation has to hurt an economy. Furthermore, everyone I've ever heard try to make the case had a clear interest in there being lots of government spending and therefore susceptibility to inflation.
     
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  17. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    That's the big question. Also, deflation in Japan is treated as a problem itself and all the analysis is around deflation in and of itself. But the following question is what problems are being caused by this deflation? The people are frugal. They save and are able to maintain purchasing power of their savings. The Japanese live a comfortable life. There aren't booms and busts with the following lay offs and corporate down sizing. It looks like a bit of circular logic. Deflation is bad. The economy is bad because of deflation. They should expected vs actual GDP as a symptom. But GDP is a misnomer too. If you inflate the money supply and therefore prices, then a GDP number can go up without there actually being economic growth. Economic growth isn't $s. It's goods and services.

    If I could buy more things I want every year while making a little less every year, I would take that. It would be a net benefit and I could sit on cash in the bank as an investment strategy.
     
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  18. OUBubba

    OUBubba Reluctant and Bullied Sponsor

    I've read that the criticisms of Carter relate significantly to his inability to delegate.

    I had an Economics professor in the early 1990's refer to the price fixing of the Nixon administration leading to the horrible economic scenario that Carter had to deal with.

    We should hope that all of our ex-Presidents live their life after office in such a noble manner.
     
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  19. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    And the Japanese clearly don't buy into the deflation-as-an-economy-killer myth, because if they did, they'd fix that problem. It's the easiest economic and fiscal problem to fix - just spend and print a buttload of money, and the deflation goes away.
     
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  20. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    No booms and busts in Japan, huh...

    :lmao:

    A real estate mega-boom and bust kicked off much of their multi-decade problem.
     
  21. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    Interest rates can only be lowered to zero. In theory, you could go negative, but what would that look like? Paying your bank to keep your $$$. It would be like early 1900s farming families in the US--store physical greenbacks in your walls.
     
  22. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    Don't misunderstand me-- High inflation is bad. It did Carter in, it did many people in. Deflation is also bad. There is a balancing act with the goal of stable / low inflation.
     
  23. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    Another driver in Japan (for low demand, and deflation) is an aging population, without growth.
     
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  24. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    They've been trying and trying to beat deflation in Japan for years, even a few decades. You can't take interest rates negative (I suppose you could, in theory). Households in the Land of the Rising Sun must have large hordes of Yen they've been saving. (please don't start buying investment homes in Texas with it...) Of course, the ailing Japanese banks once sick balance sheets (after the big real estate bust, after the big real estate boom) are probably looking very solid relative to 20 years ago...

    UPDATE 1-Japan govt vows renewed drive to beat deflation

    The Lost Decade: Lessons From Japan's Real Estate Crisis

    Inflation? Not in Japan. And That Could Hold a Warning for the U.S.

    After 20 years, Japan still stuck in deflationary mindset: Kuroda

    https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03215.pdf

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    Last edited: Dec 6, 2021
  25. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Busts? Are we talking breast size?

    Deflation - same question. Please explain this so that someone on the street can understand.
     
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  26. OUBubba

    OUBubba Reluctant and Bullied Sponsor

    Taint bout de bossoms.
     
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  27. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I've heard that before too. I think that he was a bit of an outsider and didn't understand how to make the bureacracy work or whom he could trust. In that regard, he was a little like Trump.

    Some truth to that, but keep in mind that Nixon imposed the price fixing ostensibly to deal with inflation. Of course, I think he actually chose that route for political reasons. He basically coopted the Democrats' inflation plan (which essentially was no plan), which made it a lot harder for them to criticize him.

    In his political commentary, I'd disagree, but in terms of how he has lived his life, I'd wholeheartedly agree. His actions speak louder than his words.
     
  28. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada 10,000+ Posts

    I tried reading that with an exaggerated French accent. Made it even funnier.
     
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  29. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I've heard that Japanese chicks are actually pretty well endowed despite the stereotype.
     
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  30. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Since then. They had a big bust and they have remained in a deflationary position every since.
     

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