Iran - Trump has dug a hole he can't escape from

Trump waged economic warfare (crippling sanctions, blocking of petroleum exports) combined with military threats, having the objective of achieving regime change. Failing that, Trump hoped to force Iran to the negotiating table and gain concessions. The strategy backfired and now Iran has countered asymmetrically and is now in the driver seat. Iran refuses to negotiate with the United States until sanctions are lifted. The lifting of sanctions is a non-starter politically as Trump would lose face having capitulated to Iran. So he won't lift sanctions and Iran will not negotiate.

Iran has stated if they aren't allowed to export petroleum products, then nobody would be able to export oil through the straits of Hormuz. In fact, Iran doesn't even have to block the passage way to halt shipping. Simply making it dangerous enough to pass through, so that insurance rates skyrocket, would be enough to end transport. And if oil transport through the straits halted, financial derivatives would detonate creating a global financial crises. Economies across the globe would come to a screeching halt fairly quickly. Hence, the United States cannot afford to strike militarily. It would be suicidal.

Iran has figured this out. They know it would be crazy for the United States to launch an attack. So, whereas the US had been the aggressor having wreaked havoc with sanctions and surrounded Iran with military bases, Iran is now becoming the aggressor. Iran can covertly sabotage oil related targets, watch the price of oil steadily rise, and pressure Trump to pull back on the sanctions. Pompeo, Trump, and the neocons have lied so many times (Iraq, Skipral, Russiagate, Syrian chemical attacks, Ghadafi killing his own people, etc.) that US accusations have little credibility in the world community. The Iranian leadership realizes Iran cannot sustain crippling sanctions and loss of oil revenue forever. In their view, arguably correctly, the US has already waged war on Iran and it is imperative that Iran respond forcibly. The US allies never wanted to break the JCPA in the first place and vowed to keep to the deal, but threats from the US forced them to back down.

Trump may be facing a lose-lose scenario. Should Trump back off sanctions now, he will look weak and Iran will be seen as the victor politically. On the other hand, if Trump doesn't relent on the sanctions, Iran will continue to ratchet up the pressure and force Trump's to either launch an attack which will at the least destroy his Presidency and at most wreck the global economy.

A similar strategy continues to be used on Venezuela. Trump seems to be quietly backing off of that one although the sanctions are still in place. Venezuela might be able to survive the sanctions with help from China and Russia. Iran, however, must overcome sanctions to survive. And they have the ability to hit back with a financial war of their own.

 

buuuuttt if we strike back at rockets and make it safe to go through.....wouldn't the economy then be ok?

 

Iran in the driver's seat vs U.S.

 

I don't see how we can gripe too much. We should gripe about the drone being shot down and even threaten a little retaliation. However, whether the drone was in Iran's airspace or not it was very close. They may have misidentified the location and shot it down. That would have been a mistake like Trump said. Or Iran may be trying to provoke the US into military action for some kind of PR reason. Either way it was an expensive but unmanned craft. Going to war over that would be foolish.

 

Iran will force Trump to either sh_t or get off the pot. Iran will no longer put up with sanctions which they consider an act of war. Trump has stated additional sanctions go in effect Monday. Iran will likely escalate via more sabotage operations and the Houthis will increasingly hit targets in Saudi Arabia. Trump will eventually have to either start a war or back off the sanctions. The slow strangulations by sanctions will end. Trump has found himself in a lose-lose predicament. A war would be a loss for everyone.

 

Actually, we would win, and we would dominate. It would be brutal for them.

Until those 7th century fools start acting like respectable humans they will keep losing just like Cuba, Russia, Venezuela, North Korea, etc.

 

Why do you post endlessly about US sanctions against other countries? You talk like the US controls the entire world by what the US does yet what other countries do have no impact on the US at all. It goes both ways and I refuse to believe we as Americans and those people without power in those countries should just take whatever the world gives without retribution of some sort. It's a no win for America unless we give everything and expect nothing in return while at the same time taking all hatred. I call ******** again on that position especially against a country who mostly wish all Americans would die no matter what we do.

 

My you are an ignorant one. How many other countries have hundreds of military bases outside their borders? Which country has invaded and bombed multiple countries, usually under false pretenses, in the twenty-first century?

The United Stares dollar is the reserve currency of the world. Other nations that import oil have needed to hold dollars in reserve in order to make transactions. The United States uses its leverage of the dollar along with its influence over the IMF to threaten and coerce other countries to do their bidding. Diplomacy has been scrapped in favor of force. The United States now ignores international law and convention and routinely withdraws from agreements. The US government is now basically an evil empire allied with Saudi Arabia and Israel. The former is a monarchal dictatorship that sponsors terrorism and the latter is an apartheid state that interferes with our own “democracy.”

 

So you believe the US controls the world. I should somehow feel more empowered now but unfortunately for you I don't. Who is the ignorant one? Hint, it's not me!

 

This article sums up how the US uses financial terrorism to control the world. It’s over your head, but many people are capable of comprehending what’s going on.

 

Mus
Am I missing the article?

 

The image should link to the article. It worked when I tried it.

 

If you're such a ******* genius why are you here lecturing us dummies who can't comprehend the depth of your intelligence? Just go away and hang out with the mensa crowd.

Your first grade intelligence insults are a big clue you aren't as smart as you think you are. You would be a lot more clever. I bet next you will google clever insults for you to cut and paste.

 

It would not link on my phone but did on my tablet.
The headline is just flat out stupid.
Are we now going to pretend the Iranian Gov't cares about its' people?

So what does the author think we should do? Let Iran get nukes? Let them keep funding terrorism?

 

Perhaps you should define how Iran is funding terrorism, because the talking heads who repeat that cliche won’t. The fact is, Iran has been fighting and killing ISIS and Al Quada. The US has been, at least until recently, abetting Al Quadra while ignoring ISIS. Can you name a single Iranian sponsored terrorist attack either inside the US or abroad against a US asset? No, of course not.

When you here this nonsense spouted out by Pompeo, Bolton, Lindsay Graham, or the usual Neocon nitwits, here is the reality. Shia groups in Iraq deployed explosive devices against US personnel carriers (aided by Iran). These devices were used against the military, not civilians. This is what the Neocons call terrorism.

Contrast this to the Wahhabism sponsored terrorism where buildings and subways are blown up. The Neocons want to mislead you and hope you associate these attacks with Iran.And then there are sanctions where medicine and food is used as weapons against civilian populations. This is the US version of terrorism which isn’t discussed.

Does the Iranian government care about its people? I don’t know. Does your’s? Really?

 

Was Trump the first admin to declare Iran a sponsor of terror?

 

If you haven’t noticed, most every country we invade or sanction has been labeled a sponsor of terror. Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, and Cuba. Now they even try to link Venezuela to terrorism. But none of our administrations throw out that label on the Saudis. But hey, the sheeple swallow the propaganda hook, line, and sinker every time. Don’t they?

 

That did not answer the question.

I do not know about Cuba
But are you saying Iraq Libya and Syria have not aided terrorists?

 

How old were you when the Neocons falsely tried to link Iraq to Al Queda in order to gain support for the invasion? Syria? There is absolutely zero evidence that Assad aided terrorists. Hell, Syria has been fighting terrorists for the past 8 years. Libya was the most prosperous country in Africa prior to its destruction. It was no terrorist state (it is now). Libya was a socialist state that nationalized its oil industry and was planning to bypass the dollar and establish an African currency to trade in. None of these countries ever threatened the United States nor did they have the means to. Their sins weren’t supporting terrorism or killing their own people, but rather having the audacity to govern in a sovereign way, exclude international corporations from setting up shop, and looking to conduct financial transactions outside of the US dollar.

 

Clearly we have made huge mistakes in dealing with the world's happy-go-lucky dictators. Please, accept my apologies on behalf of the United States.