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Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Joe Fan, Aug 5, 2019.
I heard on the radio that right now they estimate the virus has a 2% fatality rate. So if a million people get it, that's 20,000 potential fatalities. That's peanuts compared to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which was estimated to have a fatality rate of 10-20%. It is estimated to have killed 3-6% of the world's population. Of course, I'm sure modern medicine could have reduced those numbers substantially.
Being over 60 and having had respiratory issues off and on since I was a kid, this virus scares the **** out of me.
Been looking at stats. In 2017-2018 flu season in US, people 65+ had a 1% death rate. Folks younger had much lower %’s than that. In China with worse healthcare, you could expect higher death rates from the flu. So, in summary, it seems to be worse, but not much worse, than the regular flu. Also, the corona virus death rate is probably exaggerated since people are probably under reporting being sick. Note no one has died outside of China.
I still think it is good idea that you are not going.
Now my concern is how it affects us getting the stuff we do need from China
Uh oh, first human-to-human transmission in the U.S. Lady who traveled to Wuhan passed it on to the hubby.
Person-to-person transmission of coronavirus reported in US, CDC says
The next G7 summit is in June this year in the United States
There are a lot of variable with all of these projections. If the Chinese do this and if they do that.
One variable is the R0, which is how many other people one carrier will infect. I think an epidemic is somewhere around 2.0 or just over. For this one the estimated R0 ranges from 2 all the way to 4. Something else about this one, a carrier can go for a full 24 hours with no symptoms at all. Possibly days.
Steven Hatfill (yes that guy) says we have been waiting for these events to begin for the last 20 years and they may finally be here. Of note is the density of the human populations in Chinese cities, packed in with all sorts of live animals. He says that some of the viruses we are going to see have been around for awhile but were hidden in the jungle and other remote areas. But now they are being brought to dense populations centers. Lastly, while the US has the best labs and research centers in the world for this, he still does not think the US is adequately prepared.
The last big global killer endemic was the Spanish Flu ending around 1919, killing ~675k when the US population was ~100M (was a misnomer too as it actually began in Kansas). From then forward, we mostly got on top of things and had no more infectious global killers again until ~1990. Something changed around 1990. Since then, 7 or 8 of new, previously unknown infectious killers have popped up. Those have mostly been viruses, and mostly jumped from animal to man. Hatfill says it is not easy for an animal virus to live in a human host. But once they do make that jump, they become very dangerous. Viruses live to replicate themselves, so they are always trying. And what changed in the early 1990s is we have never had the human population densities that we have now, combined with international travel and globalism. It's a new world out there and the experts do not know what is going to happen. Hatfill thinks we are entering "the age of pandemics."
Today, the current fear in the rest of Asia (Tibet, India, Thailand for example) is that this is going to jump borders and get into their own mass density population centers. And they lack the proper infrastructure to treat and contain the coronavirus. They are not close to being ready. This is one of the ways the Spanish Flu spread - there was a total lack of proper medical infrastructure to contain it. So these countries are in something of a panic at the moment.
Back in China, Wuhan is huge, with more people than NYC. You may have noticed the CCP has finally gotten serious and fired all the medical heads in Wuhan (who issued a public apology). Some people are even already calling this the "Chinese Chernobyl." There you not just had substandard Soviet construction/engineering, but you also had the corrupt, dishonest Govt cover up and lying which compounded the errors. They see many parallels with the current CCP.
Lastly, if you like this stuff, here is Hatfill's newest book
I did not realize those masks actually protect other people from breathing in the masked person's exhale.. Not to prevent the mask wearer from inhaling germs etc.
The US Govt now says Americans in China should consider leaving
My father's family all had the Spanish flu. He was born in 1913 and was six years old, but he could remember it. Luckily they had it in 1919. The virus had mutated and wasn't nearly so virulent as it was at first.
He remember that his mother was too sick to cook. They lived on a farm in rural East Texas. He said all he had to eat was canned sardines and stuff like that. No fast food in those days. Since the cows still gave milk and the chickens still laid eggs, I guess nobody was strong enough to milk the cows and gather the eggs. Hard times.
There were three "waves" of the "Spanish Flu" outbreak in the US. The first wave, which was prior to WWI and which they think began in rural Kansas, made people sick but had a low mortality. The second wave, with soldiers coming back from Europe but before the war was actually over, had a high mortality. Many of the deaths were in areas where soldiers disembarked, especially Philadelphia. Boston too i think.
Look at the memorial plaques at Texas Memorial Stadium lined at the entrances. Most died in camp, not in the field. Guess why?
Yep, it was a disaster. And they say repeat(s) are coming.
I should have said “died stateside in a camp”.
See what I meant
Big Panda is watching
Still alot of variables at work with this one.
For example, how many days can a contagious person be symptom-free? One? or four?
What about human-to-human contamination? At first they were saying none. But that seems untrue also
It doesnt help that the Chinese have been lying about the details.
Trump has made repeated requests to Beijing to let American experts come to Wuhan and help. The CDC is the best in the world at this. They kept denying the offers, but I heard on radio in car this am that they have now changed their minds. Which is good, but also bad because it probably means they dont think they have control own their own
I heard on the radio that the virus is now sweeping through Africa, which is very bad news given the sanitation and medical treatment availability over there. It's no surprise because China has a very large presence in Africa.
Just monitoring people from Wuhan doesn't cut the mustard anymore. So, look out folks, here it comes. It's just a matter of time before it's recognized as a pandemic.
What kind of interspecies shenanigans were going on up there? Must have been aggys or okies involved (or both).
That's also the HIV question no one really ever wanted to answer
But, yeah, I think the story in Kansas was aviary
Wow, beaver penises? Those Chi-coms will eat anything. I'm reminded of that dinner scene in the Sultan's palace from Temple of Doom. Ann Coulter was joking about the epidemic stemming from them eating kung pao bat. She may be right on the money.
In addition to giving us lots of new diseases, their eating habits are single handedly wiping out the world's wildlife. I mean who the heck would want to eat a cuddly koala bear? Reportedly they do. They're also the biggest culprit in the decline and predicted extinction of sharks.
So the latest from Dr. Hatfill is that the Wuhan coronavirus will "run its course." There will be a high infection rate but low mortality rate. The exception is folks with pre-existing conditions like Diabetes-II, heat or respiratory issues. He said there will eventually be a "herd immunity" that develops. He thinks that if there if there is a real danger, it will be IF there is a second wave. You might recall the story above regarding the Spanish Flu in the US -- the first wave had a low mortality but the second wave killed many. Also on the good news side is that RNA viruses, like this one, have problems replicating.
They might take it out on all the poor animals
Who knew spraying feces all about while squatting over a hole in the ground might someday be a problem?