John Hollinger is an idiot

Discussion in 'Men’s Basketball' started by RockyBalboa, Jan 8, 2008.

  1. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa 500+ Posts

    No matter what you think of the Spurs, does anyone really believe they only have a .2 percent chance of winning the championship? Really?

    Am I reading this right?
    The Link
     
  2. Roy4President

    Roy4President 100+ Posts

    Agreed, it is pretty ridiculous. I'm sure this changes through the year however. I'd be interested to see how accurate these were in recent years, anyone know?
     
  3. killer b's

    killer b's 25+ Posts

    That is the dumbest model in the history of models. Having my Mavs as a higher percentage then SA is beyond histarical. I assume he likes Detroit and Boston no?
     
  4. forshizzzle

    forshizzzle 25+ Posts

    This is the first year he's done a playoff predicting model. The model does not make any attempt to adjust for prior playing experience. It is all based on strength of schedule and how much you beat your opponents by and is weighted to favor the data from the last 10 games you played. My understanding is that it runs thousands of iterations of the remaining schedule and comes up with a bunch of different results.

    If you asked him, he would probably tell you that the Spurs have better than a 0.2% chance at winning the title, but he'd also tell you that if they play like they've been playing over the last few weeks with the injuries, the 0.2% chance is probably pretty accurate.
     
  5. UTmainman

    UTmainman 100+ Posts


     
  6. homer

    homer 500+ Posts

    It's an even year; he is correct. In fact, he might be giving too high a chance to the Spurs.



    I kid, obviously.
     
  7. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa 500+ Posts


     
  8. Mitch Cumsteen

    Mitch Cumsteen 250+ Posts

    We're looking at a model that doesn't take injuries into consideration. The Spurs are something like 17-4 when Duncan, Ginobili and Parker all play. 6-6 without them.

    If those guys aren't healthy for the playoffs, I'd say his odds are probably pretty close.
     
  9. DKR777

    DKR777 250+ Posts

    The caveat to Hollinger's formula, which he freely admits, is that it assumes everybody will keep playing at the same level they've been playing. Obviously, this assumption probably doesn't work when discussing the Spurs -- they've been hurt for a month, plus they don't seem to really care right now. It stands to reason they will play better once they get healthy/less apathetic, thus increasing their chances.
     

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