Models produce predictions. The predictions should be compared to actual data points to refine and hopefully validate the model. The coronavirus models do not compare well to US data to date.
It's been really interesting hearing talk of certain schools and certain conferences saying they will have fall football. Real interesting dynamic playing out and I doubt that the NCAA (or a conference where individual teams are saying that) like it much. I personally love it. For a school, for a conference, for a city, for a state. There should be reasoned discussion, debate and planning, but, I for one, am pleased to see anything decentralized and the smaller groups at least considering their options or acting on them. Will be alot of wrangling behind closed doors....as I'm sure there already has been. Fun times....
No, but they will notice LSU skipping a season. Very high probability that if the Texas/LSU game is played at all that the attendance will be zero.
If the game was here I’d go. And fight with authorities till I got to stand at the South Gate, or anywhere I could see the field.
Man, what planet are you from? The past actual data is what drives the models. But then the politicians think it is a good idea to open up before there is any period of decline. They hopefully will find sobriety in June.
Play in the sun. Reduces virus life to <2 minutes. I agree that yelling will likely be a vector for spreading the virus though.
I am offering NO opinion as to what, when, how, etc. I merely want to make a point about new cases, declinging cases, plataues etc. On the Saturday of what would have been the Big 12 Basketball Tournament, and we were all in total disbelief, and that surely this really wasn't going to happen, I heard a Dr. from UT Southwestern here in Dallas interviewed that I found really interesting. He was really calm, but held nothing back in what he thought would happen, even with the newly thought of shelter-in-place, masks, etc, the flattening of the curve etc. He stated that he kept hearing very smart people talking about the number of cases (I think in DFW we had like 45 at the time), but that it was folly to look at the number of cases and to make stratigic plans based on it. Rather, it was his belief that the rate of replecation should be what all planning should be based on. As example, based on the number of new cases in the previous 9 days in the US, the total number of new cases was doubling every 3.5 days. And that at that at rate, which at first blush seems small, that in 12 weeks, there would be 1,000,000 cases in America. He was wrong, we reached it in less than 10 weeks. EDIT: Please forgive my spelling, typing and run-on thoughts. This is what happens when I type at 2am with no glasses on and then do not proof read. Again, my point was simply to share something I had heard in litterally the very first hours, and how close he had been. Perhaps it was a case of even a blind hog finding an acorn every now and then, or perhaps it was reasonable science at work. But frankly at this point, I tend to lean to blind hog scientists, vs. pols of either ilk. Just sayin.
Another variation (and probably one of the first to actually make sense) that will cause coaches to ponder; two conferences that would have to play an extra game; and no mention of independents: Report: Consensus growing around potentially shortened college football season Coaches to ponder - Which non-conference game to play? Does Texas play LSU and blow off South Florida and UTEP or take the middle road of playing South Florida and blowing off LSU and UTEP (no "real" economic impact on the UT System)? Two Conferences playing an extra Conference Game - Can/Will the NCAA force the ACC and $EC to play an extra conference game and make it stick going forward? If the NCAA waffles, the other 3 major conferences should say no to the plan. Independents - No mention of ND and BYU. Like the Extra Conference Game for the ACC and $EC, can/will the NCAA force these two into conferences and make it stick going forward? ND is in the ACC for all sports other than football so that would be their natural home with the added benefit of playing ND as the 9th Conference game for 9 teams. Harsh, but no one really cares about BYU.
You mean the models that showed 2 million plus dead in the US? I have a lot of modeling experience. Models can be built on theoretical equations or wholly on assumptions. I'm not sure on what these models were based. I am sure that the model predictions (model run results are predictions, not data points) are wildly wrong.
It all depends on the assumptions of the model. Data does not lie. If you do not know that "data points" are actual histories, you never passed a freshman statistics class. Your "modeling experience" must have been for pet food commercials. Sorry 200K deaths will not be enough for you.
Dan Patrick reports possible delayed scenarios. Dan Patrick shares reported 'consensus' on format of CFB season
as someone who works in health data, i am constantly aware of how irrelevant it is that data does not lie. "data" is a synonym for facts or truth. partial facts sometimes give us the opposite and wrong answer. the models for covid-19 have been all over. back to your point...assumptions are extremely important. In terms of using models from other countries to help us inform our ability to "flatten the curve," there is no other country like us in terms of total size, number of urban populations, and amount of non-urban geography...whose system of government is purposefully limited so that the states have their own ability to make/enforce laws...with Texas being such a large state that we have developed a similar mindset that counties should have power to make/enforce laws. No one else is like us anywhere. China is most similar in being big and populated, but their form of government killed a teenage boy with cerebral palsy by forcibly removing all of his family caregivers to put into their quarantine camps until he was left to die by himself. Our ability to deal with this as a country to to follow medical/clinical protocols 100%. Social distance and EVERYONE wears masks (to reduce your nasty spit), wash hands, and don't handle things that others have if at all possible. Models can't figure out the behavioral differences between densely populated urban cities with high degrees of poverty (like the northeast, LA, New Orleans) from large, but more spreadout urban cities (like Houston and Dallas). And can't model the behavioral differences for how many of these people travel. I'm telling you that modeling helps us figure out 1) how easy it is to get, and 2) how deadly it is. So that we know how scared/compliant we should be behaviorally. Otherwise, I think it's a crap shoot.
Fill every 6th row. Not hard. Season ticket holders would rather watch from home than have no season. Half won’t show up anyway. Do people have brains anymore? The recommendations from the experts are useless from a planning standpoint. That leaves trial and error as the way to manage through this. Again, do people have brains anymore?
Saw an aerial of Barton Creek Mall with an empty parking lot. That and other stories show that Austin is not buying in to Abbot's opening delusion of Dollars over Deaths. The Mayor and the County Judge (Adler and Eckhardt) are both encouraging continued isolation. This is good news for football fans because if Travis County can get new infections to trend downward by the middle of June, school may be open by July 1, or certainly by the end of August. If one of those dates do not occur, no Fall football and no Spring football, respectively. Let's hope Travis County and Austin can continue to slow the COVID-19 infection rate.
Some of you guys just look silly talking about this. As with most viruses, this will make it's way through our society one way or the other. It is a matter of when and how. No one ever thought there would be lockdowns for perpetuity and it isn't all about money....people just want to be free to conduct their affairs and are willing to take the risk. If you don't want to....stay home. The counties, states, countries who try hard, long, strict lockdowns are going to have some real upset and disappointed constituents when they loosen restrictions and start getting back out and reality hits....it is already happening...the virus is still there and it will make its rounds sooner or later. And if a vaccine changes that it would have to come faster than expected and have a greater application and effectiveness rate achieved in a shorter time period than can reasonably be expected or has commonly been achieved. Pie in the sky. And keep your blind politics off the football boards please.
Agree. If you want to talk politics, make a thread on the West Mall. If it is about the politics of sports, it is a politics post, not a sports post.
