Longhorn Foundation Donation

Discussion in 'In The Stands' started by KBBAKER, Jun 30, 2020.

  1. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Chart of positivity rate of tests to CV19 with a early peak in mid April high rate above 13.86% with decline to under 5% due to stay at home and mitigation followed by a steady increase to 15.5% since May 27th.

    upload_2020-7-9_23-51-3.png
     
  2. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    As of Jul 9th
    2918 deaths
    230,345 postive lab confirmed tests exclusing presumed cases
    1.2% deaths

    Aug 1st is three weeks away.
     
  3. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Bill,

    That’s all well and good, but when you have 2 million tested and 26 million untested, you can grab a couple of million new tests and drive the numbers through the ceiling or lower that the Grand Canyon.

    We have no idea of the demographic makeup of these numbers, if that even matters.

    The politicians started off with some dubious testing centers staffed by less qualified workers. How did that skew the numbers?
     
  4. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    1.2% deaths of positive tests, but 0.12% of those tested.
     
  5. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Sabre
    I agree the 2020 cumulative numbers are suspect for many reasons.

    The last 4 weeks looks like we are a long way from cresting in July.

    or August.

    Just one opinion.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Surgery centers and hospitals are requiring testing nine days prior to surgery. As a result there are a lot of new tests, but at least these tests are done in competent facilities, and are out of the hands of the politician$' buddie$. Still these numbers are not helping the projections.

    Politicians need to stay out of Covid and leave it to COMPETENT HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONALS NOT HOBBY $HOP$

    The Christian summer camp my grandson attends is swamped with cases at their two locations.

    There used to be a sign over the door of a meeting room in the north end of the basement in the US Capitol -

    "For the government is created to serve the people, not the people to serve the government"

    That should be tattooed on the forearm of every politician in the country.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. nashhorn

    nashhorn 2,500+ Posts

    Forehead Sabre, tattoo it on their forehead. And make it last until their term limit is up.
     
  8. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    You guys are looking at the wrong stats. It’s not about daily cases or deaths. See tweet below and compare against NY, NJ, MA, CT, RI, DC which are above 15% infected. Note peak in Sweden was at approx 7.5% infected. Florida, AZ, and TX need to reach that level before infections start to come down. Note the US Northeast did not have a second surge after the street protests.

     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020
  9. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

  10. pluckeye

    pluckeye 250+ Posts

    Sorry to be morbid, but count the dead bodies. That is the most reliable statistic.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  11. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    MC
    Here are 4 charts showing the current daily CV19 positive tests to look at the trends that CV19 has in the US. When we put them all together we get one picture but the components are important.

    Texas has been increasing since late May and has reached its highest levels in early July. The Texas chart is simliar for CA, FL, AZ, GA etc which are over 100M population. Any deaths associated with the current cases are a lagging indicator that will show up in the next 4 weeks plus any new infections. The count is increasing.

    upload_2020-7-11_10-36-47.png

    The NY chart indicates a fast start and early peak by Apr 8th with a steady decline to the current 600+ daily rate. NY was running 1200/day in late May. The NY chart is similiar pattern for NJ, IL, MA, MI, CT etc and represents 80M population. The count is in decline.

    upload_2020-7-11_10-38-4.png

    The daily chart for the US shows an early NY peak at Apr 8 of 30K+ cases a steady decline to late May to 22K cases and a significant increase to July 10 to 60K+ cases. The NY East peak was followed by a decline and then the TX South increase took over. The US is at double the NY peak. The count is increasing.

    upload_2020-7-11_10-39-12.png

    The Ohio chart represents a third group that have a much different pattern than TX SW and NY East. The Ohio chart is similair to LA, WA, VA. IA, IN, MO, KS with an early Apr peak followed by a decline to June and an increase to Jul. The Ohio MW group has a 65M population. The count is increasing.

    upload_2020-7-11_10-49-33.png

    The direction of CV19 as it works its way through the south and middle on the US appears to be follow population density. The current trends of July as CV19 works its way across the US is an increasing count of daily cases to record levels in July.

    Hopefully advances in treatment, early hospitalization and early detection by testing will have a positive impact on the death counts while we wait for vaccines and herd immunity to arrive.

    We are a long way to 15% or 50M cases in the US.

    Just one opinion.
     
  12. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    The CDC has said the true number of infected is likely 10x positive cases. If so, NY and NJ are >20% infected. MA is similar, probably at 18% infected. The states that have seen a smaller surge are likely at 10-15% infected. Finally the states that are peaking now like CA, TX, and FL are just now approaching 10%. The issue now is that there is a lot more testing available today vs NY and NJ in the early days of the crisis. So, the comparisons aren’t going to match so well. But I contend that once this turns in Texas the cases will go down week after week, and it should be obvious by mid -August.
     
  13. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Cases appear to be peaking in CA, AZ, GA, and TX. I am estimating by Aug 1-15, cases will be firmly on the down slope and on the tail by Sept 1-15.
     
  14. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Look at Sweden’s curve of cases. Looks similar to US curve. Neither country undertook a serious lockdown.

    CFF2D356-6DB7-4924-A18B-B391C76AF0E0.png
     
  15. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    MC, Is this cases or deaths?

    If cases it shows a decline since Jun 24, when will the 7 days avg for the US start a decline?
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2020
  16. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Sorry, it is cases. I should have cropped the file. I say the decline starts in 2 weeks in US.
     
  17. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

  18. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Abstract above says second wave this Fall not likely due to herd immunity.

    Will cases be dropping fast enough by Aug 15 to save football season?
     
  19. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    I presume everyone got the email from CDC (del Conte) regarding season ticket holders and reseating folks to adhere to 50% capacity.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    50% Occupancy based on TXOU Priority ranking.

    Example if you donate $10,000.00 for 2020 you will get up to 6 tickets. abd if you donate less than $10,000.00 you will get 4 tickets.

    Some folks will get fewer tickets than they own season tickets.

    Priority for the Red River Showdown Tickets
    Total Annual Gift Priority Tickets
    $75,000+ 12 tickets
    $50,000 - $74,999 10 tickets
    $25,000 - $49,999 8 tickets
    $10,000 - $24,999 6 tickets
    $50 - $9,999 4 tickets
    Non-Members 2 tickets - if available
     
  21. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Select the option below that best fits your current feelings on attending Texas Football home games at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium this fall:
    I would like to keep my season ticket purchase and remain a part of the 2020 reseating process.
    I am unsure whether or not I will attend home games and need to see how things progress, but would like to remain a part of the 2020 reseating process.
    I will not attend 2020 home games.
     
  22. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    The survey will help determine the number of season ticket holders are committed to attending 2020 Longhorn home games.

    Allocation of the reduced number of seats available is based on TXOU Priority ranking up to Season Tickets owned. Not all season tix will be the same ranking.

    Response deadline is July 24th and more information by early August on allocation.
     
  23. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    1. At 50 percent capacity, we anticipate being able to offer all season ticket holders an opportunity for season tickets. Each season ticket holder will be allocated season tickets up to their respective Texas-OU priority limit for each home competition.
    2. There will be a reseating process for the 2020 season only. We are doing our best to place all season ticket holders as close to their usual seats as possible. You will not lose your Loyalty Point status or current seating location for 2021.
    3. If you opt out of season tickets for the 2020 Texas Football season*, you will not lose your Loyalty Point status or current seating location for 2021.
    * Please note: if you choose to opt out of your 2020 Texas Football season tickets, you may convert the ticket cost and seat-related gift into a 100% tax-deductible donation to the Longhorn Foundation, into a credit toward the 2021 season, or you may request a full refund. When you convert your payments into a gift, you will receive 10 loyalty points for every $100 you give (normally 2 points per $100 for seat-related gifts).
     
  24. easy

    easy 2,500+ Posts

    Our 50 percent ticket allocation for the cotton bowl just went to 25 percent. Lordly the resale on those thing will be through the roof.
     
  25. LHABSOB

    LHABSOB 500+ Posts

    *yawn* lots of posturing for a season that will likely never happen. I responded with the middle option- thought it was the best middle of the road answer to be non-committal either way.
     
  26. nashhorn

    nashhorn 2,500+ Posts

    May be the only old guy there, well old couple as wife said she’d go too, but I said earlier I was going if they play so I’m going.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  27. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    One more week of this hysteria, then it drops forever, regardless of vaccine :

    18E0A71E-3701-42D5-9EC3-C4371B23983A.jpeg
     
  28. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Take a look at Chile. They implemented lockdown before the peak in April, so why did it turnaround?

    6163D3F6-A88A-4C10-9AA5-60C3C58FDE75.jpeg
     
  29. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Take a look at Panama. Similar case load per capita as US and Texas. Why do the curves look similar? Maybe social distancing isn’t the controlling factor.

    7416C847-6814-4ABB-BA75-EAF4818A199E.jpeg
     
  30. pluckeye

    pluckeye 250+ Posts

    Why are you so sure about your predictions? What is you background? Do you have particular expertise in epidemiology?
     

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