Looking towards the 2016-17 season . . .

Will start off the discussion with Creme's way early pre-season Top 25:

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...d-way-way-too-early-preseason-top-25-rankings

 

That looks like as good a projection as any at this point. Honestly, for all the talk about UCONN this season, if Lloyd hadn't turned pro, and a few others including Turner hadn't played injured for much of the year, I think the Irish could have won the NC this year.

I do think we'll be right in the mix next season, in particular if our highly touted freshmen contribute right away. I believe that will happen, at least with Holmes anyway. I do hope Sutton is also cleared to play, rather than taking a RS, if her recovery allows it. And it should; if anything I think it'll be a confidence issue as 10 + months is more than enough time to heal from ACL surgery. Losing four seniors will still result in a bit of an adjustment, but hopefully we'll move on quickly given the talent and athleticism of those coming back.

I've always thought 2017-18 might be our best chance to win a NC, with Atkins, McCarty, Higgs, Hosey, Foman, Olamide, Akigbogun and the twins all upper-classmen, and our super 2017 group of Holmes, Sutton and Underwood with a year under their belts. But I'd still like to see a true post coming in either 2016 or '17. I guess that's still possible though not sure who it might be at this point. We're in the mix for 5 of the HG 2017 top 15, but none are posts. Maybe a transfer or JUCO prospect? We will still have height and inside talent, but that picture could change pretty quickly in event of injury.

 

Staying healthy is definitely a key every season; we certainly have had our share of injuries. And, those injuries have impacted the development and confidence of several players both in pre-season and during the season.

Obviously, we need consistent production in the frontcourt from Kelsey, Joyner and the twins; even if they draw defenders out to the three-point line, we will need them to convert those opportunities. If Jada and Jordan can also contribute in the frontcourt, that adds additional firepower. Most importantly, we need all 5 players on the court to be offensive threats; that wasn't the case the last couple of seasons.

I still expect some more attrition before the Spring semester ends. With the Spring signing period having already started last Wednesday, and no announced signings as of yet, I don't expect any JUCO additions. But, there seems to be a chance at a transfer from another D-1 program.

 

Oh you WILL see all five players being offensive threats next year. One thing no one on here has talked about are the Caron-Gadreau twins. They have good size (6'3"), are very physical, and can shoot the 3 very well and spread the floor. This will allow our other more athletic players to take people off the bounce more effectively. They are also VERY agile and can move up and down the floor very well. Audrey-Anne Gadreau is VERY physical. In 2 of the last 3 games in the NJCAA tourney, she had 17 rebounds and 6 blocked shots in each of those games. She also hit SEVEN 3 pointers in one of those games. UConn did not have a true 5 and look what they did. Spreading the floor is going to create HAVOC for others teams because of our quickness and ability to take people off the bounce (i.e. Brooke, Atkins, Higgs, etc.). You then add Joyner Holmes into the mix and we are suddenly a very high octane offense with tremendous quickness AND, more importantly, the ability to spread the floor.

 

Re: Creme's preseason picks. I'd move Louisville down somewhere below #5, and move Baylor up to #2 or #3. Notre Dame looks like a bona fide #1.

 

This will be first time in many years, maybe decades, that Texas will be able to put five real double digit scorers on the floor at the same time. There will be real shooters at every position, enough to run a Connecticut or Notre Dame style offense---flexible, freewheeling, with guards who can hit the three, drive and dish, complemented by quick big people who can also step outside and shoot. We will have several people who could score over 20 a night if they got the minutes. Folks around the country know about Joyner Holmes, but not about the other new players coming in. They don't understand the potential for a quantum leap in the U.T. offense. Up to this point, in retrospect, Karen Aston has done a good job of getting more from less with "a team without a star," as she once put it. As the personnel improved, her offense improved. Now we'll see how she orchestrates big time scoring talent. There could be more talent than even most Texas fans realize. I've watched some tape of Jada Underwood recently. Rattfatt once described her as "a bigger, stronger Briana Taylor, with more range." Watching the tape, that judgement looked dead-on. On tape she looked quick and mobile, with strong and athletic moves around the basket, a variety of ways to put the ball in the hoop, and a good outside jumper. I looked up her high school stats. Her senior year she shot 35% from beyond the arc. This kid may turn into a fine scorer in the small forward/wing position. She could play the four if Texas goes small. For years Texas lacked scorers. We will have a bunch now. It's a nice problem to have, but managing the rotation and juggling the playing time among the top ten, won't be easy.

 

Early Bracketology:

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

One of the keys to preventing UConn from playing for another national title next year is to keep them out of the Bridgeport, CT regional. That means non-conference foes like Baylor, Texas, South Carolina, etc. have to beat them. Even then, UConn can still be in Bridgeport as a #2 seed. Time will tell.

 

I concur with Bobcat and Dr. D. 150%. Next year, given we stay healthy at key positions, we'll be much more fluid offensively once the team gels.

 

Anyone know if Audrey-Ann is enrolled for the first summer session?

We've seen tweets about Alecia and Jada being on campus already. Joyner is actually having her high school graduation tonight, I think; so, she's not attending classes yet.

And, surprised that TexasSports.com has not even updated the coaching staff by removing Travis and adding Jamie Carey.

 

It all looks good on paper...but will it gel? I love scheduling UConn early on. Win or lose, we need that level of competition if we aspire to beat Baylor. We lost all three contests with them last year. They are the Big12 Champs until we take it away.

 

Zig 72 hit the nail on the head. It's about beating Baylor. We will never be a first seed, or win a Big 12 championship, without beating Baylor. We should frame discussion of "next year" in terms of us vs. them, simply because that's the number one barrier we face. Baylor's loading up, too. They will be a better team at every position but one. They lost their point guard; we lost our center. Normally a weakness at point guard is more damaging. Mulkey's probably going to find some way to compensate. A lot of folks on the Baylor board think Alexis Smith will take over the point. She played it some at Duke and apparently played it pretty well. They've also got a highly regarded freshman point guard coming in. Perhaps she can play a little. They have two very outstanding big young centers who gave our front line fits. They've added the #1 (or2) freshman, Lauren Cox, who is adept and mobile and can play the four. Add Nina Davis and they have arguably the best front line in America. Their guards out shone ours last year. Losing Niya Johnson is their only weak point, though a big one if they don't solve it. Texas will have its best mix of offensive players---maybe ever. All of our stars are a year older and stronger. Lashann Higg seemed to take off in the NCAAs. if she hits her jumpers consistently, she may be unstoppable (we'll see). We have more three point threats than ever. Up front we're adding a phenom, Joyner Holmes, and the gifted Caron-Goudreau twins (if they perform as expected at the Division I level). We'll have size up front, quick size that can shoot....So, everybody, how do you think our personnel mix matches up with our nemesis? That's the most important question of 2016-2017. And oh yes, what kind of offense should we run? A new one? Or the old one, only better?

 

I think Texas matches up with baylor well. The only weakness in my opinion is Kelsey Lang against their centers. Kelsey is just not physical enough and can't play with her back to the basket. I also think Coach Aston will run the same offense, but she will run a lot more pick and pop with the twins at the 4 and 5 position.

 

That's an extraordinary take, considering the scoreboard. Your assumption is our new weapons are much better than their new weapons. There is a difference between hope and truth, but I hope you're right.

 

I can pose this question another way. How does Baylor match up with US??? If you take into account the "blossoming" of Lashann Higgs at the end of the year, along with the continued improvement and consistent play of Ariel Atkins and Brooke McCarty, those three are going to be very very tough for anybody to guard. When you add the Caron-Gadreau twins to the equation, you have added "PHYSICAL" bangers who are very mobile and agile, and who can spread the floor and hit the 3 CONSISTENTLY. Thus, Baylor's bigs will be forced away from the basket to guard us. THEN, you add Joyner Holmes to the equation who is simply the best athlete we have recruited since Clarissa Davis, and yes we will be VERY VERY TOUGH to guard. As far as their players being better than ours, etc., let's just say if I had to pick between Lauren Cox and Joyner Holmes, it would not even be close. Holmes is a BEAST, FAST and ULTRA-ATHLETIC. We still don't know about Alecia Sutton's return time, but she is the real deal as well. Our ability to "spread the floor" is going to create more opportunities for Brooke, Ariel and Lashann to take people off the bounce. I do disagree about what offensive sets we will run. While we may still run some of the same sets, I look for WAY MORE CREATIVITY with Jamie Carey being assigned the task of offensive schemes. This is going to be a very fun year ladies and gentlemen!!!!

 

Truth.

 

There's not any hope in anything that I posted only the truth. Brooke, Ariel, and Lashann improved as the season went along last year. And because of that the offense was also much better. When you add Joyner, the twins, and Alecia the team is obviously going to be better.

If you go back and look at all three games the difference in at least two of the three was the inside play. Kelsey and Imani were ineffective interms of being physical in the post rebounding and defensively. And the fact that neither Kelsey or Imani could give Texas any consistent points in the paint.

 

It's nice to know only Texas improves with more experience and talented new additions, not the other guy.

 

And who said that they wouldn't improve? I said that Texas matched up well against baylor and the only question mark is Texas' inside play with Kelsey Lang has the center.

 

My sentiments exactly.

 

When you look at the box scores, the Baylor/Texas patterns are pretty clear. Obviously, with all the new personnel, different factors will come into play, but you can see where improvement is needed or holes need to be filled. Our greatest need is to increase our over all scoring. We simply cannot beat the best while scoring in the 60's.

1. They didn't beat us at center last season; it's just that we were supposed to be dominant there and we weren't. Boyette and Lang played even with Montpremier and Brown, and in fact outscored them 49-38 over the three games. Team rebounding was pretty even.
Bad news: Boyette's gone and Lang was not strong. She averaged only 6 points a game against Baylor in spite of respectable minutes. This year Baylor will also bring in Lauren Cox to play the 4 or 5. She's very good and she can score. Baylor can put her on the floor with one of their other centers and Nina Davis. Our three new bigs have to produce big time.

2. Their three main guards scored well. Our's did not. Jones/Johnson/Wallace averaged almost 40 points a game. Higgs/McCarty/Atkins got 29. Atkins was barely a factor. One reason is she couldn't keep herself on the floor. She fouled out of one game and had four personals in another. The Baylor guards also were capable of hot game winning streaks. Wallace had 23 in one game, Jones had 29 in another. McCarty had 16 one game, Higgs had 15 in another. That wasn't enough. They won't have Niya Johnson, who ran their offense. All the rest of them will be back.

3. They had Nina Davis and we did not. Davis averaged 20.6 points a game and we simply had no answer. She's a phenomenal player, she's killed us for three years, and she'll be back. At least one U.T. girl has to emerge as a take-over-the-game type who can put up a lot of points fast. We now have several candidates for that, so we'll see.

4. It seems to me our offensive schemes have to be significantly different this season to reach our full potential. There will be games when we can't stop the other team and we will simply have to out shoot them. Potentially we have a lot of players who can really spread the floor and shoot or take it to the hoop. We have to maximize those skills. Sometimes, maybe often, Lang will be on the bench and we will be playing without a true center. That's going to be very interesting.

 

Numbers don't always tell the story. It's not easy to score more than 60 points when your not a very good shooting team and you couldn't throw the ball inside close to the basket to get easier points. In the games against baylor and in the lost to OU Kelsey and Imani would get deep post postion but couldn't finish at the rim. Kelsey played the 4 a lot against baylor with Nina Davis guarding her and she actually got her shot blocked numerous times by the 5'11 Nina Davis.

From about the middle part of the season to the end of the year against Uconn the strength on the team was the guard play. Just imagine how much closer the game with Uconn would had been if Kelsey and Imani were effective offensively.

 

I agree! Imagine if we'd had the luxury of putting four or five consistent scoring threats on the floor at once versus the two or three we had.

I expect things will be MUCH different in the upcoming season with the new additions, plus Jamie Carey calling the plays. I have a feeling we're going to be more capable of making effective live-game adjustments in that area.

We'll just have to wait for the newbies to catch up defensively and we should be much improved over this past season. I'm excited to see the product put on the floor and watch the process of it all gradually coming together.

 

Because of the personnel mix, we have to evolve our offensive plan in order to fully utilize the talent level. Hopefully we'll move toward the fluid kind of scheme that Notre Dame and Connecticut use. It might be disorganized at first, but potentially we can be a terrific scoring machine. This season we will be able to put four McDonald's All-American guards on the floor at the same time, if we want, and five in the season after that! That's kind of amazing. We'll have another All-American, Holmes, who can dribble, shoot or drive, at power forward, and two other big forward types, the Canadian twins, who can go inside or outside. Then there's All American Jordan Hosey, who I expect to steadily improve offensively at small forward, and maybe Jada Underwood. Taylor and Foman are steady substitutes, and Kelsey has been a very good center at times. Her skill set is actually better suited for the more open style of offense. I don't know what becomes of Aborowa. She's rough but she's 6'4" and has big athletic potential. Maybe they should try converting her to center while red shirting one of the freshmen. One thing I really like about Karen Aston is she gives everybody a chance to play. Hopefully she can play all these good athletes enough to avoid transfer problems. There's a lot of talent here now and only 200 minutes a game to squeeze it into. (Yes, I know. It's a lot better to have that kind of problem than the other kind.)

 

Lashann is working...Dang that girl is quick.

 

I think the fluid motion, read-and-react, attack-the-defense type of offense (like Notre Dame & UCONN) is what we're going to see. In fact, I'd bet on it. You're right... it may be a little choppy at first before we get it down. But then again I saw us rum some of it last year with Lashann running the set, attacking the paint and breaking down the defense. The reason it wasn't always all that effective is we only had a couple of consistent shooters to kick the ball to. Also Lashann really didnt start maturing into the understanding the concept until very late in the season. It worked really well against UCONN s we pretty much traded blows with then aside from that bad second quarter. I'm definitely feeling good about the upcoming seasons.

 

Coach Aston runs a 4 around 1 offense. That offense is tailor made for stretch 4/5's. Imo, I don't think we'll see a Princeton read motion offense like Notre Dame or Uconn. I think we'll see the same 4 around 1 offense but tweaked for the players on the roster.

I also would like to see more floppy action for Brooke that Coach Aston used against Ucla. I think there will also be more high ball screen pick and pop with the floor spaced at the top of the key using the stretch 4/5's.

 

I'm just a glad we have some options at PF with size/height again. Holmes and at least one of the twins (perhaps both) provide that ability to play inside and outside, just like Tina Thompson did in her career. We are gonna need productivity at the 4-spot, especially against Baylor. We had no answers for Nina Davis last season, and this season Cox joins their frontcourt.

Curious to see what happens at SF. Ariel Atkins is more than capable of playing there, but she can also play SG. but I'm very interested to see the roles Taylor, Hosey, and Underwood play. Depending on Sutton's recuperation, perhaps we will see Lashann at PG some. Bottom line is that Brooke may have to focus mainly on PG early on, and not be used as a shooting guard as much as she was last season.

 

There's a difference between "matching up well" and "being a superior team".

 

Several posters have referenced our new weapons in the stretch 4 position. To my eyes, we have not had such a player since the 04-05 season with Heather Schreiber - they don't grow on trees. Now, on paper, we seem to be loaded. Are we?

My heart is telling me one thing (much improved scoring punch), but my mind is telling me another (show me). We've yet to discover if this bevy of new weapons can play defense and rebound to very high KA standards in a very tough conference.

My question is what exactly is the outcome of employing that type of weapon in a KA offense? In other words, cui bono, who benefits? It's the Texas version of "follow the money."

Naturally, the stretch 4 position will require some versatility in the absence of a Boyette, a natural post, and when Lang is not on the floor. Therefore, the frequent references to a "stretch 4/5." Either way, this group will be a fundamentally different KA team. If you look at last years' minutes, KA placed a very heavy reliance on her senior guards - not as scorers, more as facilitators/defenders. Davenport and Rodrigo are gone - things must change.

Let's assume, as we suspect, we now have taller players on the roster with the ability to score a high-percentage of catch-and-shoot three-point shots. The opposing PF will be pulled away from the basket to defend. That could moderate the scoring impact of the stretch 4, but it opens up the driving lanes for our guards. It's more like a dance than a chess game.

One outcome, which I suspect will monopolize post-game discussions, is how our offense has become a "guard dominated" scoring team. I say that because I'm not yet convinced the 3-point shot is actually in our arsenal. It will improve thanks to the stretch 4, but perhaps not to the extent others assume.

More likely in our half-court offense, Karen will use the scoring potential of the tall wing players to create more opportunities for all 6 of our guards. I think 5 of the 6 are adept at scoring off the bounce in both the mid-range (Atkins) and the to-the-rim (Higgs, Sutton) game.

Bottom line, I think our per game scoring average will increase next year, but so will the opponents, since getting back on defense may be a challenge for this new, taller roster. However, I think the net difference will change in our favor.

Of course, I am as guilty as the next guy by my own hubris. Things often turn out in ways I never imagined. I know there are very knowledgeable posters here who can point that out.

 

I think we are going to spread the floor more, and not try to feed the post as much. Kelsey has a very good mid-range game, and that will help draw her defender away from the basket. But, I wouldn't be surprised to see Joyner play more inside than anyone due to her strength and quickness. As a young player, her confidence could be established based on getting some early layups while playing down low.

Spreading the floor hopefully opens lanes for our guards to penetrate; that was not Celina's strong suit the last 4 seasons. But, Brooke, Alecia, and Lashann should be able to do that more often.

Granted, a lot of the above depends on the twins being able to knock down the 3-point shots consistently when they are on the court. I'm not sure how many 3-pointers were made by Celina and Empress this past season, but those makes have to be supplied by new/returning players. And, since we only have one new guard in Alecia, that means 3-pointers from other positions are going to be needed.

Hopefully, Jamie Carey will bring some new offensive ideas and plays. I'd like to see more backdoor plays and more cuts to the basket.