I spent a little time at the Marquette web site….the thing that jumped out at me is that they are getting 136 minutes per game from seniors. Those veteran teams tend to play well in the tournament. While their FT percentage wasn’t that different from Texas overall the starters are 86%, 75%, 75%, 71%, and 69%. In that group it is hard to find someone to foul. 5-8 PG Angel Robinson is at 75% for FT, and has been to the line more (156) than anyone on the Texas team. She has more steals (74) than anyone on Texas team. She has more assists per game (4.8) than anyone for Texas. She averages 13.3 points AND 5.2 rebounds in 34.4 minutes per game. She will also take an occasional 3PT, but is at only 31% for the year. On paper this appears to be the player that makes this team go. 5-7 Tatiyiana McMorris is another SR G who averages 33.5 minutes PPG, and 3.8 APG. She shoots 86% FT, and is their leading 3PT shooter at 38% and 72 made, (numbers very much like Kat). But, she doesn’t get to the FT line that often given her minutes, with only 74 attempts on the season. 6-0 SR F Paige Fiedorowicz is at 29.4 MPG, and 10.5 PPG. She shoots FT at 71%. 6-2 SR F Jasmine Collins averages 21.4 MPG, and 9.2 PPG, to go with 5.2 RBs. 3 PT is at 43%, but on only 7 attempts for the season. 75% FT. Sarina Simmons is a 6-1 SO F averaging 27.6 MPG, 7.5 PPG, and 5.7 RBs. 69% FT is the lowest of the starters, and she doesn’t shoot that many (49). 50% 3 PT, but on only 4 attempts. She appears to be the biggest shot blocking threat, but only a little over 1 PG. 6-3 F F Katherine Plouffle averages 23.3 MPG, 6.9 PPG, and 5.2 RBs. 60% FT is a big step back from the starters. Gabi Minix is a 5-9 F G averaging 14.3 MPG, 1.9 PPG, and 33% 3 PT (33 attempts). This would be the player to foul if possible as she is only 10-25 for the season. Courtney Weibel is a 5-9 SR G averaging 17.3 MPG, 4.9 PPG, and 32% 3 PT. She seems to be a designated 3 PT shooter with 152 attempts on the year in limited minutes while only taking (and missing) one FT all season. Draw your own conclusions from that information. I see what the numbers seem to indicate, but I hate to take paper stats too seriously.
I was encouraged to hear Marquette relies on a matchup zone. I think Texas will have far more success against a zone than a team that has the athletes to play an aggressive man to man. I'm just hoping their guards aren't going to light us up the way San Diego State did last year.
I was a bit dismayed at the stat comparison until I really took a look at who they played, and their strength of schedule...I think the level of some the people they played helped their stats...sure, they played some good teams, but nowhere near the number of the higher-level teams we played, and mostly, played closely...at least for a good part of the game....so, I feel good about our chances...esp. if our "high energy" team shows up in Knoxville!
Marquette has wins over NCAA Tournament teams seeded 3, 5 (2), 7, 9 (2), and 10. Total of 7 games. They have losses to seeds 1, 2, 3, 7 (2). Total of 5. Worst losses are to teams with RPI 54, 75, 168. I think that last one, at the end of the season hurt their seeding. Texas lost to seeds 1 (4), 2 (3), 4, 6 (2). Total of 10. Texas beat seeds 8 (3). Total of 3. (The good news is that Marquette is an 8 seed.) Worst losses are to RPI 80, 89. Marquette's 10 most meaningless wins are to RPI 338, 313, 278, 253, 240, 195, 170, 137, 135, 119. Texas 10 most meaningless wins are to RPI 319, 263, 249, 239, 213, 205, 205, 202, 198, 176. I don't know what all of this means. But, I do get a sense that Texas played many more elite teams and Marquette's schedule was not as easy as it looks at a glance.
What I gathered is that the two are very similar with not much production from inside and depending on guards for offense. I think we are a better 3pt shooting team than Marquette. We are certainly better defensively inside as long as AG stays out of foul trouble. Marquette plays around 8 players, with starters getting most of the minutes. They don't have a lot of height. They have a 6-3 RS Sr post who doesn't seem to have played this year. Maybe another injury. I really expect us to have an edge inside. We will need to rebound well, especially offensively. Robinson is the engine that makes them go. They do resemble Texas a lot, is my impression, except for the 3pt shooting.
Honestly, I think the teams are pretty even overall. For instance Marquette's worst loss is to Cincy (RPI 195 but you may be looking at a different list), a team we beat. But we only won by 3 pts and Marquette only lost by the same margin, so not a lot of difference in how we played against the one common opponent.
Both teams will be much like each other. But I look for Texas to take this game.Both teams like to run, so this will be fun. Mar do have sum good guards. I would like to see Texas get this victory for 2 reasons. A. Because We Are Texas B. To Show That We Are The Best Conference In The Nation. This will help the cause.So when all the teams from the Big 12 go into the Tournament. They must realize they are not only playing for their school. They are playing for the respect of the Big 12 Conference. Hookem'
So Texas and Marquette actually have two common opponents, Cincinatti and South Florida. Horns beat USF 83-65 in the Vegas tournament while Marquette beat USF 61-55. Seems as if the Horns would have the advantage...on paper. We need to show up first of all, have a good defensive effort, hit our shots, play hard and we should win.
Another possible advantage for the Horns - the 1300 residents of Troy - hope many of them are there and yelling loudly for the Horns!
Babhorn – Yep. You describe lot of what those numbers looked like to me. I was surprised at the similarities with Texas. Overseas…..Yes, probably a different RPI list. I’m never sure that the exact number matters anyway. After the teams at the top I don’t think there is a lot of difference between any range of 20-30 that you want to select. It matters. It is the best indicator that we have. But, within that range put them on the court and you don’t really know what is going to happen. I’m with you about the 3-point games with Cincinnati – except that the Texas was game was early in non-conference with a very young team, while the Marquette game was the last regular season conference game with a veteran team. In the grand scheme of things, that single game was much worse than the Texas loss to OSU……Not that one game, even against a common opponent, means that much. Jusme – Good catch on S Florida. Not sure how I missed that. I should probably either spend more time looking at information about this game, or more time actually doing my job. I’m not sure yet which one I’ll go with. After looking again it appears that Marquette starts Katherine Plouffe rather than Jasmine Collins as I originally thought. As far as I can tell they have four postsforwards that they rotate through three at a time, with only Paige Fiedorowicz playing significantly more minutes than the others. I’m curious how we will try to match up with them……will we still go with a smaller lineup and try to use speed as an advantage, or do we go to a bigger group to match their size? I’m guessing we start with the smaller (normal) group and stay with that unless Marquette forces a change. I do like the fact that Coach Hughey has experience in the Big East and has seen Marquette recently.
I don't think anyone had posted this yet; it's a feature on Marquette from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. I didn't realize they had won the WNIT in 2008 - if I've figured correctly the 6 seniors would have all been freshmen on that squad. Agree with Outlook - these senior-lead teams (inc top 4 scorers) can sometimes be dangerous: LINK
Just some more interesting numbers that in the end mean nothing…… Looking just at games against teams in the NCAA tournament, plus the two common opponents….. In 14 games Marquette scored 7.6 PPG above the opponents average allowed, and allowed 2.8 PPG less than the opponents average scored. In 14 games Marquette held the opponent under their scoring average 7 times. In those same games Marquette scored more than the opponents average allowed 7 times. Marquette played 3 games against top 10 defensive teams. In 16 games Texas scored 11.2 PPG above the opponents average allowed, but allowed 5.1 more PPG than the opponents average scored. Texas held the opponent below their scoring average 5 times out of 16 games, and scored more than the average allowed 14 of 16. Texas played 7 games against top 10 scoring teams. I had no idea that Texas was the #14 scoring team in the country. What would they have been with Cokie? Just more to think about, and another lunch gone by…..
Interesting side story...Terri Mitchell (Marquette's head coach) was one of the people Duke interviewed to replace Gail Goestenkors.
Based only what I can see in statistics and the little that I have read online, so maybe completely off-base…… Marquette seems like a team built to encourage the opponent to shoot lower percentage shots from the outside and then limit second chance shots. Offensively they look like the opposite, focusing on higher percentage shots in the paint from the three forwards, or Robinson going to the basket, with a couple of designated three-point shooters for when they want to kick it back out. On paper they don’t look like a team that would want to run. Things that I think I am going to be looking for….. Our offensive rebounding. While I have never seen them play, I just don’t think Marquette can win if Texas dominates the offensive boards. This is why I wonder if we will see more player rotations that include two of AG, Kristen, and Anne Marie. How much, and how effectively do we press and trap? On paper Marquette looks like a team that is pretty much as TO prone as Texas has been. I don’t know how often they have faced teams that apply a lot of pressure. Can we get to the basket? One thing that has seemed to stand out when Texas does not play well this season is that guards are not getting to the basket. Texas is not going to be strong scoring inside this year, and they cannot afford to be one dimensional. Who is on Angel Robinson? It seems fairly clear on paper that she is the key for Marquette. Someone, or some group, needs to slow her down and at least be sure that she is working hard for everything that she gets. I’m guessing that this will be primarily Yvonne. If we get past Marquette at least Tennessee will not present any mystery.
one of the stats I started looking at this season is number of shots per minute, figuring that fast paced teams would have a higher number than slow paced teams. In that comparison, Marquette has averaged 54.2 shots a game while Texas averages 63.6. That comes out to 1.4 shots a minute for Marquette vs 1.6 shots a minute for Texas. Marquette may run when they have the opportunity but it doesn't seem like their offense is based on that, like Texas' is. Of course, the ability to run is helped by creating TOs and/or dominating the defensive boards to create fast break opportunities which lead to more shots per minute.
Story from the knoxville paper primarily about the Marquette coach but with a short summary of the MU-Texas matchup.
we actually had only 7 players for that game... AND, we had no Kristen...now THAT'S a warrior!! But first....BEAT MARQUETTE!!
only 14 more hours to go before our game tips off! Time will go fast after sleeping tonight. Got a lot to get done before the game. Go, Texas! Beat Marquette!
