More conference realignment speculation

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Irish Horn, Dec 8, 2018.

  1. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    No, the biggest obstacle is Texas football not winning consistently. What Championship has Texas football won since the 2009 season?

    At the current rate of non-success, the contract will not be renewed in 2031 [and given a chance Disney (ESPN's owner) would pay it off tomorrow just to get rid of it]. If you think it is easy money doing it alone (i.e. without a network partner) - check out the PAC-12 Network (if you can find it).
     
  2. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    The B12 and its members agreed to the GOR thru 2031 which means that the current TV contract is in place until it expires. Texas (and everyone else) has already given it media content in order to keep the B12 viable.

    Talk of Texas playing somewhere other than the current contract would require significant buyout and agreement of the B12 conf and its members.

    You are correct that Texas should put all its efforts into improving the product on the field.
     
  3. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    Our schedule would be just as watered down as it is right now.

    Let's say we round out a schedule with 6 Power-5 teams and 6 "not-so-Power-5" teams. You can probably assume that we'd still get OU, teams we've scheduled in advance like Michigan, Alabama, etc.

    I still think filling it out with Rice, UTSA, Colorado State, UTEP, Navy, Houston, New Mexico, etc. is about the same as playing KU, KSU, ISU every year. I don't see us as BYU, who doesn't get good coverage east of Utah.
     
  4. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    Herman remarked in his 24/7 interview today about an 8 team playoff that the Champions of the four 16 team P5 conferences would automatically be in. That would be the SEC, B1G, ACC and whoever joins Texas, OU, OSU, TTU, maybe the Kansas teams, maybe ISU, TCU WVU and Baylor in a super conference. PAC is dead unless Bowles takes a dive.

    By the way, the other 4 playoff teams would be the highest ranked non P5 team and 3 selected by the committee.
     
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  5. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 2,500+ Posts

    4 sixteen team conferences would be interesting. Big and Pac joining up, but I'm having trouble picking just 8 teams from the pack to join with 8 teams from the big 12. I'd say no to Oregon State, and WSU, no to Colorado, and probably no to feCal but that is a big No. The schools I could see getting an invite are USC, ASU, Arizona, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Washington and Stanford. Maybe drop Stanford and take BYU. That would be rich. Then on the other side. Texas, blOwU, Okie Lite, KU, Nebraska, Tech, TCU, and my wild card, Rice.

    Not a bad 16 team conference. Of course that would only give each school 7 divisional games, and 4 gaves for enter-divisional and OOC games. My guess is 2 OOC games and 2 enter-divisional games.
     
  6. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    I think you are on the path of how it all shakes out. The biggest issue would be what would happen to the Power 5 dregs? Hard politically to drop them down to Group of 5. While it would be a feel-good story to have Rice - they are not competitive in Conference USA so the chances of ever being competitive in a Power 5 conference is very, very small.

    Standford, UCLA, Cal, Oregon and Washington would probably go B1G and close that Conference out after Nebraska goes PAC/Big 12. The PAC/Big 12 would be Nebraska, USC, ASU, UA, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Tceh, ou, oSu, ISU, KU (because of basketball), KSU, Nebraska, and Arkansas. After WVa goes ACC, the holes would be the ACC and PAC/Big 12 at 15 and SEC at 11. They would have to choose from a group that includes BYU, WSU, Baylor, TCU, Oregon St., and who wants anyone from that grouping? What 5 AAC members are Power 5 ready?

    The wild card is probably the basketball centric ACC since after Clemson, Free Shoe U, the convicts and North Carolina (now that Mac appears to have brought them back sort of; maybe) the remainder of the conference is barely above Texas or California HS level. Free Shoe says they will never be in a conference that includes Florida; Clemson doesn't want to be associated with South Carolina.

    While everyone is expecting this to happen when the TV contracts are up, but what happens in 2020/2021 when the TV networks start going broke because their non-sports inventory plays out because they cannot replace it due to social distancing? They would have to significantly cut back on all expenses including sports programming. The result of this would be an attempt to either cancel the college sports contracts outright or significantly lower fees so they can continue to pay the Tony Romo's of the world ridiculous money to tell us hat we are seeing in the NFL. Such an effort would open the door for this type of reorganization.
     
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  7. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Why would TV pay for content not delivered as games were not played?

    NCAA didn't get BB TV funds for March Madness that was cancelled.
     
  8. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    They will not so at what point do they declare force majure and break the contracts.
     
  9. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    What? There is no plague clause?

    Shakespeare was right - Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2.

    "The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers".
     
  10. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Why would they (TV and B12 Conf) want to break a contract with 10+years remaining? TV is getting a better deal on current terms than they will get when negotiated at a future date. B12 Conf has 10 members most of which are better off with the current contract in place.

    Oh and the B12 owns the media rights.
     
  11. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 1,000+ Posts

    You guys are reminding me of the questions I raised with my wife this morning....
    If pro sports leagues experience further cancellation and revenue loss...at what point do you as an owner ask that players either defer contract years or take steep pay cuts? I mean...this isn't the federal government here... It is still a real business enterprise, right??
     
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  12. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    But each team retains the tertiary rights of football games? Unlike PAC-12.
     
  13. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    I thought the NFL players were paid a check for each game they play/attend. That way suspensions are costly.
     
  14. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    I would go with a 5-conference set-up, each with 16 teams. That way, we don't have to bump a lot of the decent western teams, and we could still argue that while 80 teams is a large league, at least it's in the right direction from where it was heading.

    Playoffs would be 5 conference champs plus the next best 3 according to either a CFP panel or some kind of BCS ranking like we used to do. Everyone else over .500 can play in good old bowl games, but not the "Top 7," which are reserved for the playoff.

    The Power-5 right now has 64 already, but that's leaving out ND and some capable others. I'm also keeping the service academies, just because. The Sun Belt, C-USA, and MAC are getting shut out. I didn't find anyone extraordinary or consistently good/big enough to make the Top-80. Every other team who doesn't make the "big league" can switch to FCS or try to stay afloat in their current system with TV contracts, occasionally playing a "big league" team in nonconference matchup (like when we could play Rice or UTEP).

    We can also talk about relegation, but that would cause a lot of nightmare scenarios for schools that can't afford it.

    Here's my vote for the 16 teams who make the imaginary cut:

    Independents:
    ND
    BYU
    Army

    AAC:
    Cincy
    Houston
    Memphis
    Navy
    SMU
    Temple
    UCF
    USF

    MWC:
    Boise
    Air Force
    CSU
    Wyoming
    San Diego St

    And here's how I would organize the conferences (without regard to divisions, which I assume would either be two 8-team divisions in each one, or four 4-team divisions in each one) **edit** flipped Rutgers and BC back to their original conferences... sake of continuity.

    New Pac 12:
    Air Force
    Arizona
    Arizona State
    Boise St
    BYU
    Cal
    Oregon
    Oregon St
    San Diego St
    Stanford
    UCLA
    USC
    Utah
    Washington
    Washington St
    Wyoming

    New Big 10:
    Army
    Cincinnati
    Illinois
    Indiana
    Iowa
    Michigan
    Michigan St
    Minnesota
    Nebraska
    Northwestern
    Notre Dame
    Ohio State
    Penn State
    Purdue
    Rutgers
    Wisconsin

    New Big 12:
    Arkansas
    Baylor
    Colorado
    Colorado State
    Houston
    Iowa State
    Kansas
    Kansas State
    Memphis
    Oklahoma
    OK State
    SMU
    TCU
    Texas
    Texas Tech
    West Virginia

    New SEC:
    Alabama
    Auburn
    Florida
    Florida State
    Georgia
    Kentucky
    LSU
    Mississippi
    Mississippi St
    Missouri
    South Carolina
    Tennessee
    Texas A&M
    UCF
    USF
    Vanderbilt

    New ACC:
    Boston College
    Clemson
    Duke
    Georgia Tech
    Louisville
    Maryland
    Miami
    Navy
    North Carolina
    North Carolina St
    Pitt
    Syracuse
    Temple
    Virginia
    Virginia Tech
    Wake Forest
     
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    Last edited: Apr 15, 2020
  15. yelladawgdem

    yelladawgdem 1,000+ Posts

    So in the new Big 12 we have 3 schools that have average home attendance in excess of 60,000 fans? Or in context, fewer fans than DKR held, when DKR took the job in 1957. This is part of what killed the SWC. We have been down that road before. It's the same as dysfunctional family relationships where you keep people in your life because they are "family". If they bring nothing to the table, and are in fact toxic (cough...Baylor), walk away.

    :deadhorse::bevo:
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2020
  16. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Switch Memphis and Nebraska.

    I like the idea of bringing in the AAC since that will stop a lot of the grief. The bottom half of the AAC is on no worse than the bottom half of the $EC.
     
  17. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    I understand what you're saying, but we don't have an "equal" in all of this. We make more money, we have a big stadium, we have more alumni, etc. So yes, we're going to have teams like UH in our conference, who will continue to play spoiler and maybe average 38K per game.

    If we're going to nuke it all and just go to "Texas and Alabama and Ohio State and friends," that's unrealistic.
     
  18. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Why? DKR & Coach Broyles proposed that in the 60s and called it the the CFA. which over time got bastardized into a coaches group headed by Grant Teaff.

    I saw what SMU did, being the first school to buy a home for a player's mother. They were totally out of control, and deserved the death penalty, but they also deserved a jury of their peers, not Amherst and schools that can't draw a crowd to rival a Texas 3A high school. City schools, smaller cow colleges, directional techs don't belong. If the big boys want to schedule them to help them out, fine, but membership is a waste of money and lost income.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2020
  19. TEXnSEATTLE

    TEXnSEATTLE 1,000+ Posts

    taking away TEXAS/o.u. would be a travesty in my life....
     
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  20. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    Yeah, but you insist on thinking a University is just an excuse to have a football team.
     
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  21. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 2,500+ Posts

    Texas v ouSUX predated B12 by almost a century. Splitting up conferences is a risk, but not a deal killer.

    Having said that, I like being in their conference. I would like Aggy in the conference also (in my ideal conf).
     
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  22. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 2,500+ Posts

    Pac-12-Big 12 Merger Would Pull New Conference Even with SEC, Big Ten
    Big 12 North
    WVU
    Iowa State
    Kansas
    Kansas State
    Oregon
    Washington
    Oklahoma
    Oklahoma State

    Big 12 South
    USC
    UCLA
    Texas
    Texas Tech
    Baylor
    TCU
    Arizona
    Arizona State

    hmmm...
    Washington and West Virginia in the same division? wow the miles!

    I still prefer NoCal to Oregon and Washington, though that brings out :fistshaking: at the libs here! lol
     
  23. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    What is the discussion about getting the students back in classes? Lots of academic areas are not online teaching friendly.
     
  24. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    The Pacific northwest schools would never abandon their aggy partners in Or St and Wazzu. As much as we can get by without the A&M rivalry, they don't have the built-in "primary" of going to another rivalry.

    Plus, Phil Knight basically drives that conference. He's not going to put Oregon in a position where they're not a primary shotcaller any longer. If the Pac-12 wants changes, they'd dump other schools (Arizona schools, Utah, Colorado) to bring in Texas/OU.
     
  25. LazyHorn

    LazyHorn 25+ Posts

    My son is a Jr. at UT in Mechanical Engineering. He hates the on-line courses format. Can't wait for live classes to resume. But no word so far.
     
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  26. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    Two time zones away will not work for any two schools.

    Phil Knight drives UO, no one else. Kind of like how Boone Pickens drove OSU.
     
  27. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    Back in the '60s my freshman year I had a Psychology intro class where the lectures had been recorded in glorious monochrome just before the lecturer died. The TAs took one session each week. The lack of interaction with the presenter was a killer as there were several gifted lecturers at that time at UT for the intro course. The TA days were great because each TA only had a a session of ten students. Most of us quit the videotaped soul killing sessions and attended a live lecture even though we were not enrolled.
     
  28. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 1,000+ Posts

    For a 16 team conference, I like 4 pods of 4 teams. In year one, Pods A and B play a round robin and Pods C and D play a round robin. Winners face off in a CCG. The next year, it is AC/BD, then AD/BC in year 3. Advantages:
    1. Rivalry games are played every year.
    2. Out-of-pod teams play every 3 years / visit each site every 6 years.
    3. Rotation reduces SOS inequalities.
    4. CCG is never a rematch.
    5. Room for 5 OOC games.
     
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  29. Giovanni Jones

    Giovanni Jones 1,000+ Posts

    My daughter is in her last semester at UT (of undergrad, at least). She doesn't mind the online classes so much. She's been accepted for graduate school at UT (Masters in Sports Management), so we're hoping classes will be "live" again by this fall.
     
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  30. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    This is TV contract talk but relevant

     

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