Yes. I boldly predict that we will beat Virginia Tech and then get stomped by Purdue in the 2nd round.
As I recall, the last four big dances, we’ve gone 0-1. We might win the first round game, but I have no confidence in winning 2.
We drew absolutley the worst possible opponent, Va Tech just ran through ACC tourny and is on something like a 13 wins in last 15 games streak. Not a good first round opponent and not for this Texas team that hasnt truly found itself all year long.
Yea, I wouldn't count on us beating Va.Tech. But, we definitely CAN beat Va.Tech. Might've been a good thing exiting the B12 tourney early so they could rest and regroup.
Will we see the Virginia Tech team that needed a buzzer-beating 3 to beat 17-15 Clemson by a point in overtime in their first-round ACC tournament game, or the one that ran away from Carolina and Duke? Having watched Virginia Tech's routs of UNC and Duke, I was bummed about Texas's chances when I saw the first-round matchup. But a little digging, and here's what gives me hope: the ACC's defensive efficiency ratings are bad. I mean historically awful. We're #12 in defensive efficiency. Duke leads the ACC in that category at #77. Wake Forest, #80; Virginia Tech, #82; Virginia, #123; Notre Dame, #163; UNC, #177; Clemson, #200; and the rest of the league—that's eight more teams— is worse than #200. Virginia Tech beat the #200, #163, #177, and #77 defenses to win the ACC tournament. The Big 12 has eight teams who play defense more efficiently than Duke, the best ACC defensive team. That includes five teams in the top 18. And the worst two Big 12 teams, Kansas State at #120 and West Virginia at #151, are better defensively than all but one of the teams Virginia Tech beat in the ACC tournament. So let's see how Virginia Tech plays against a Texas defense that is far more stingy than what they've been playing against the last 10-11 weeks. Texas has struggled to score against the great defenses in the Big 12, but we should see a lot more scoring chances against Virginia Tech. I'm about a 5-1/2 hour drive from Milwaukee. This post might have talked me into grabbing some tickets and heading north . . .
I wouldn't be surprised with a first round win or loss. But one win is the ceiling. This team isn't going anywhere. If I'm wrong, abuse me. I will be more happy in that case.
I like our chances against VTech and Purdue, for the same reason. As @HornDawg1957 pointed out, the ACC sucks defensively. And out of conference, VTech has not faced a ranked team all season. Thus, they have zero experience facing a good team with a good defense. The same is pretty much true of Purdue. The Big 10 is just as bad defensively as the ACC, if not worse. The only Big 10 team in the top 50 is #43 Indiana, which barely squeaked into the tourney. Purdue split 2 games with Indiana, including a squeaker in the last game of the regular season. The only other Big 10 team in the top 100 is Illinois at 93 (which Purdue beat twice). On their non-conference slate, Purdue's only ranked opponents were UNC (which sucks defensively) and Villanova (which is only okay defensively, and which Purdue lost to, at home). The bottom line is that neither VTech nor Purdue has faced a challenge quite like Texas all season. Either could respond well and blow us out of the building. But there is a very real chance that neither of them is up to the challenge.
Interestingly, the committee is putting the no-defense Big 10 to a test. If the bracket holds, the three Big 10 teams with 3 or 4 seeds (Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois) will each face a top-12 defense in the second round (Texas, Houston, and LSU).
It's kind of "chicken or the egg" to argue whether an opponent hasn't played a D like ours when we play in a D-oriented league, and therefore, haven't faced many offenses like the ACC. In the "recency" score on Sagarin, VT is #7 in the nation and Purdue is #17. We're #51. Unless Beard has said/done something in the past week to suddenly give us a presence at PG and allow guys like Jones to hit their shots, I'd be very wary about comparing conferences and saying that we got a good draw based on x, y, or z.
According to Ken Pom stats being kept since 1997 there is a set of metrics to which since 1997 no team has won a championship without meeting those metrics....ZERO. Seems pretty reliable to me even if it doesn't make much sense. This year it gives only 11 of the 68 teams a chance to win it all based on offensive and defensive efficiency and a couple other stats I don't recall. Texas is one of those 11 teams. Where Texas gets eliminated in this game of stats is that no team has ever won the tourney losing their first game in their conference tourney which Texas did so we're eliminated. The three teams that meet all of the Ken Pom stats are Kansas, Villanova and Kentucky so place your bets fellas. Two of the three might lose in the first round, but history suggests one of these three will win it all. Don't shoot the messenger. I think I'll pick Villanova because Kentucky and Kansas have had some pretty soft games this year.
Looks like Smart is up to his old ways in the first round of the Tournament. If we win our first game tomorrow, then I will say hiring Beard was a winner.
Things I already thought before today, but now am more convinced of than before: 1 - John Calipari is a great recruiter, but not a great gameday coach. 2 - Shaka Smart is neither a great recruiter or a great gameday coach.
So if we can get past VA Tech and Purdue we'll either be playing Murray St or St Peter's for the elite 8. I like our chances against all of those teams.
In two weeks I will meet up in Austin with some of my Iowa cousins … I’m praying for the Horns to at least make it to the 2nd round so that I can lord it over them.
I’m praying for a Seton Hall victory, so I can crow about how good of a tourney NJ teams are having. My Rutgers friends will be so proud!
Big 12 looked good today Billy Ray...Big 12 feeling good too Louis!! VERY PLEASED THE GOOD GUYS BEAT VA TECH TODAY! Also pleased TCU beating up on Seton Hall at the half... go Frogs!
TCU up 20 in second half and keeping the Big XII undefeated. Looking more and more like OU got shafted and not aggy being kept out of the tournament. Seventh place in Big XII should have been tournament worthy.
I didn't expect to see Iowa State get further along in the tournament than Iowa. (But I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition, either). Between that and a couple other upsets (and some ill-advised choices), my bracket is already on life support.
Take a seat Seton Hall ... TCU takes down big BB program SH Pirates by a whopping score of of 69-42! Big 12, Big 12, Big 12 !!!!