North pole to melt this year?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by hornpharmd, Jun 27, 2008.

  1. Texas007

    Texas007 1,000+ Posts

    CO2 is a "trace gas" in air, insignificant by definition. It absorbs
    1/7th as much IR, heat energy, from sunlight as water vapor which has
    188 times as many molecules capturing 1200 times as much heat making
    99.9% of all "global warming." CO2 does only 0.1% of it. For this we
    should destroy our economy?

    The Medieval Warming from 800 AD
    to 1300 AD that Micheal Mann erased to make his "hockey stick" was
    several degrees warmer than anything "global warmers" fear. It was the
    longest recorded time, 500 years, of peace with great abundance for all.

    The Vostock Ice Core data analysis show CO2 increases follow
    temperature increases by 800 years 19 times in 450,000 years. That makes
    temperature change cause and CO2 change effect; not the other way
    around. This alone refutes the anthropogenic global warming concept.

    Carbon combustion generates 80% of our energy. Control and taxing of
    carbon would give the elected ruling class more power and money than
    anything since the Magna Carta of 1215 AD.

    Most scientists and
    science educators work for tax supported institutions eager to help
    government raise more money for them. And, they love being seen as
    "saving the planet."
     
  2. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts

  3. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    wow, the ice has continued to do quite well. I saw one guy predicting a fairly dramatic drop this week due to a high pressure system, so we may finally see some serious melting. Let's just say this is the highest ice has been at this time of the year since about 2006...so 8 years or so. currently, on the DMI 30% graph we are actually above 2005 and just below 2006...we happen to be above every other year since then. but this could end soon.

    DMI 30% graph
     
  4. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    this year continues to track just above last year....with less and less time for a dramatic fall. we actually had a tick up with today's reporting so the ice rebounded a bit from yesterday, not uncommon, but again this makes a dramatic melt off much less likely as we only have a good 3 weeks of serious melting left and the temperatures are crossing below freezing currently. I still think we see the ice come down a bit...for me it is an open question as to whether it is higher than 2005 or below it as 2005 is the "next" benchmark above 2013. of course all it would take is a few good melt days and we could still eclipse 2013 and end up lower than last year. I think 2006 (which had a higher minimum than 2005) is probably out of the question as I think we will certainly come in lower than 2006.

    30% ice graph DMI

    I also really like this graph because it puts the entire satellite record into one graph which gives a good perspective. Clearly we have been melting since 1979, but again this is expected during a Positive PDO and mostly Positive AMO...we may be starting to recover (too early to say) and the AMO is still due to switch negative.

    all ice records back to 1979
     
  5. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    as an aside, it is interesting that this thread was started in 2008 and we are considerably above 2008 in terms of the 30% graph (the more important one in my mind) and just on it for the 15% graph. However, I believe we will be considerably above both at this year's low ice date (approximately September 17?) Pretty funny that after 6 years on this thread we are above where we were when it started with dramatic predictions of a possible complete melting of the Arctic Ice. Of course the Antarctic has continued to grow and has been at or above record levels the entire year.

    Antarctic Sea Ice
     
  6. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    Any day now San Antonio will be the new Galveston as the sea continues to rise........right?
     
  7. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    i continue to be very surprised at the lack of melt off this year. the 30% graph continues to roughly track 2005...my guess is that it ends above 2005 but below 2006. This will still be above every year since 2005 except 2006. once again, this represents quite a rebound from the past few years. this is the 2nd year in a row. now we do have a good 3 weeks left of melting but with each passing day, the likelihood of the big melts becomes smaller. in fact, the temperature of the Arctic looks to be going below freezing permanently for this year in the next week....

    DMI 30% graph

    the normal ardent believers sure are quiet this year....strange.
     
  8. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    because this entire thread is about arctic sea ice, i think it is interesting to compare this day's sea ice to the exact same day in 2007.....

    [​IMG]
     
  9. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    and here is the comparison with the same date from 2 years ago (the lowest in the satellite record)

    [​IMG]
     
  10. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    the last week finally saw a good deal of melting. We seem to be sitting about the same place as we were last year on the same date. There is probably only 1 week left of decent melting before the melt off begins to slow quite considerably towards the low mark in mid September.

    30% ice mark for the Arctic
     
  11. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts

    Should people be sanctioned, fired, or is it reasonable in the world of climate science?

    The Link


     
  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    zork, that is what you do if you are working in industry, like me. To get someone to buy a product from you, you have to prove that your measurements are accurate and precise and then the conclusions you draw are second guessed. I guess that doesn't happen when the government is paying you.
     
  13. Bronco

    Bronco 500+ Posts

    Quite possibly my biggest gripe in this whole issue is the smoothing/adjusting of raw data. I have never heard a suitable answer for it. We are told the smoothing is based on really good science but the data is not public and it is obviously highly subjective. And tiny, tiny adjustments in the formulas have a very large impact on the totals over time.

    Question: How many non climate scientists that parrot AGW theory or are heavily invested in their opinion on the subject actually know that the raw data has not shown warming? id guess less than 5%.
     
  14. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    I agree Bronco...The claim is often made that thousands of IPCC scientists agree, but how many of them have vetted the argument from beginning to end? the assumption is made that the temperature data is trustworthy, but how many know that it has been adjusted rather radically in some cases. I do think that given enough impetus many scientists will start speaking out soon due to the lack of empirical data supporting the theory in the real world.
     
  15. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    well...with only about 14 days of melt left and most of those likely to be minimal....we are looking at the most ice to finish a melt season since 2006. This is really an impressive rebound, but multi-year ice is even more impressive.

    if next summer goes like this we could easily see a return to the early 2000's by 12 months from now....then again, the opposite is possible too.
     
  16. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts

    Global ice graph(second graph from top):
    The Link

    Looks to be back within the mean.
     
  17. Battleship

    Battleship 25+ Posts

    LOL at Al Gore. Arctic supposed to be completely melted now
     
  18. Uninformed

    Uninformed 5,000+ Posts

    The increase in sea ice is a huge problem. Sea ice has a bright reflective surface. Much of the light energy that radiates in the polar region is reflected back into space and areas covered by sea ice don't absorb much solar energy. As the sea ice grows, less solar energy is absorbed, leading to more sea ice growth. This positive feedback loop is a danger to humans and animals alike. Less plant growth caused by the cooling will lead to a decrease in indigenous animal populations and could cause massive extinctions. Further, human populations can scarcely handle dropping temperatures, leading to increased fuel consumption and migration from our northern territories towards more moderate, equatorial ones. Hopefully, this trend reverses or we could all be doomed.
     
  19. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts

    Uninformed,

    That sounds like teacher speak from the 70's.
     
  20. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    So in a nutshell if the temp rises we're doomed and if the temp drops we're doomed. Sounds like we're pretty much ******.
     
  21. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    the melt season is almost over. We probably have about a week or less, but certainly less than 2 weeks considering how fast the temperature is dropping and how low in the horizon the sun now is for the Arctic. This year has seen quite an increase in estimated ice volume and the sea ice is a bit above last year. this leaves us FAR above the low point of 2012, yet still significantly below the "average" which was based on 1979-2000 or 1979-2010. no doubt the trend has been down since 1979. what will be interesting to see now is with the sunspot count heading into the doldrums again and many solar scientists predicting a maunder or dalton type minimum...we could be in for some interesting decades ahead in terms of global temperatures. this will be a very interesting test of the CO2 hypothesis. will anthropogenic causation overwhelm natural causation or will natural causation win the day? obviously, the middle ground would be any point in between that allows for both to have their say in various capacities. no one expected the pause we find ourselves in so currently the needle is pointing slightly more towards saying that natural causation is the stronger parent of climate, but obviously that opinion could prove to be erroneous if we were to start rapidly warming again and if our temperatures were to catch up and then maintain the radical warming predictions made by the CIMP5 models.
     
  22. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    oh...let me put a few specific numbers with my previous post. i took these from a blog called "sunshine hours" which can be found here:

    sunshine hours

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sep 07 2014 – -1,045,000 sq km below the 1981-2010 mean

    on the other pole:

    Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Sep 07 2014 – 986,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 mean

    what makes this more interesting is that while the Arctic is sitting at about the 6th or 7th lowest point for this time of year, the Antarctic is sitting at the VERY top of the record for this time of year. In fact, according to sunshine hours, today we broke the previous sea ice record in the Antarctic by 290,000 sq kilometers:

    The old Daily Record is Smashed By 290,000 sq km.

    Only 37 days had more Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. One of those days was in 2006. All the rest were in 2012 and 2013.
     
  23. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts

  24. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    I don't know anything about Icecap.us but there is ample evidence that the scientists listed as the contributors to that org have significant funding from fossil fuel industries.

    With that said, I'm not informed enough on this topic to weigh in.
     
  25. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    And those receiving funding from the government are essentially being hired to give them justification for regulating and controlling more of our lives. That road goes both ways. Plus you miss the point that many of the oil companies are spending at least some of their money on renewable energy development.

    For anyone demonizing oil companies, governments are so much worse. Oil companies have benefited me way more than the Russian government has benefited their citizens. If only citizens in Russian could own their own oil company...
     
  26. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    I do have to say the climate change "deniers" are doing yeoman work on this thread.

    I'm curious if any of the current Climate Change information ever casts doubt on your beliefs or do they get more resolute that you know something the masses don't?
     
  27. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts


     
  28. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    SH, the climate data shows that the relationship between CO2 conc. and global temperature is diminishing. It is those calling for drastic changes to laws and putting more power in government's hands to change the country's energy source that are denying the data at this point.

    The data could still show that drastic change is needed. But it isn't saying that now. Good thing Leo DiCaprio isn't paying attention to the science or he couldn't have so much fun protesting and giving speeches.
     
  29. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts


     
  30. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Government bureaucracie's and the current administration are Progressive. The Progressive movement in the US has been looking to place more and more of the nation's affairs into the hands of the government for about a century now. I think you mischaracterize the size, influence, and hunger to gain more power that US govt. agencies have.

    I don't care what the reasons are for oil companies investing in renewables. It is their money to put into things they think will result new business. It also shows that they are poised to make money off of energy regardless of the source. Large corporations being bogey-men is a Progressive method for rallying outrage at the private sector. Let's keep businesses from polluting, monopolizing, and endangering workers with unsafe work environments. Other than that let's let people innovate and create prosperity for us all.
     

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