I think that the key to the election will be disenchanted Republicans, and their counterparts, "Reagan democrats." In other words, the folks who are not at the ideologue fringes (which granted, are quite sizeable -- there are clearly about 30% of folks out there who would vote for anyone with an R next to their name, and it seems that there is a similar % on the Dem side as well -- but that leaves about 40% in play). I am NOT a W fan. However, I have typically voted R in national elections (some Dems, but mostly Rs). That said, I would vote for Obama right now. Thus, that Dem would capture this disenchanted R. If Hillary is the nominee -- I would vote for pretty much ANY of the Rs except Huckabee against her. Hillary will not capture the disenchanted R vote. She is exactly what we have long bristled at about the Dem party -- she believes that she is entitled to the job, she clearly knows what is good for us and looks down on anyone who disagrees with her with disdain, and when she doesn't look to be getting her way, she acts like a petulant child and calls us fools. And, on a broader level, this country needs someone who will foster unity, deliberation, and consideration of opposing ideas. Not only will Hillary NOT do that, but she'll do quite the opposite. I am not alone. Many of the moderate Rs I know feel similarly. Of course, I also know some of those Rs who would never ever vote Dem, period. Just as I know some of those Dems who wouldn't consider an R for any reason. And finally, there are clearly those among us who either support or oppose Hillary because she's a woman (which is a stupid basis for either opinion), or support or oppose Obama because he's black (ditto). Hillary can win if the owns the female vote. Obama cannot win if he owns only the black vote. Which of those people is most likely to sit on their base and tell the rest of us to f**k off? In case you can't tell, I really, really, really don't like Hillary.
I think about three archetypes. 1. The first is "Archie Bunker". He is a White union guy from the Rust Belt. He hates rich people and corporations but he's socially conservative. He traditionally votes Dem but loved Reagan. He loves the flag and the military men. He hates wusses like Kerry and Dukakis. He doesn't like Hillary and is unlikely to favor Obama. 2. "Betty Sue" is a single mom. She could be from anywhere or any race. She barely makes it. She has trouble with men. She doesn't usually vote. She doesn't know much but is tired of the bad deal she's getting. She's four years older than the last election and a little smarter and a lot mor pissed off. 3. "Pedro" is Hispanic. He's been here twenty years and is legal. He is a mechanic and makes a decent income. He has many friends who are illegal at places like his Catholic church and his son's baseball team. He has relatives in the military and relatives who don't have as good of a job as he does. He lives in a large Hispanic community in a major metropolitan area. Figure out who these three vote for and you'll know who wins.
In recent elections, I believe the middle 10-15% controlled the outcome. In this election (similar to the Reagan years) I believe that the middle has grown to more like 30% or maybe even the 40% suggested by BT. I was at an Obama fund raiser last night organized by a life-long Repub (70 year old woman) and attended by at least 10 of her old guard Repub friends. She has refused to change her party registration so will not be able to vote for Obama in the primary, but she raised a lot of money. If Obama survives the Clinton machine and runs against anyone except McCain, “Obama Republicans” will be added to our lexicon. If it is between McCain and Obama, it would be a very interesting race and in my opinion great for the country. It would limit the number of Obama Republicans significantly, but I still think Obama would win many of the middle of the road Repubs who are fed up with Iraq. In the end, I think turnout would be the key to a McCain/Obama race with Obama winning with an overwhelming turnout similar to the turnout in the primaries. But of course, I have drank the koolaid
I really and truly believe Obama would blow out anyone that the republican's put up against him. Hell, I might go ahead and vote for him over McCain, even though I agree with him on almost nothing, just b/c - why not?
What the open primaries have demonstrated is that Obama has enormous appeal to attract independents and consolidate the public in the middle. The basis of power for Presidents in this country has been the ability to identify, motivate, and gain the support of the middle. This has been the pattern for the past twenty years despite very concentrated efforts to energize the extremes. For a while, the ticket has been to appeal to the right -- think the religious right and conservatives. My sense is that there has been an overreaching brought on, in part, by people who painted themselves conservative and then favored policies which were antithetical to the basic conservative philosophy. Exhibit "A": W. But it was a shrewd strategy. I may hate Karl Rove, but I have to admire the genius sumabitch. I won't say that the left is resurgent, but war does have an interesting way of counterbalancing the status quo. The prize is in the middle, and I would venture to say that the voting populace is very, very hungry for a central, uniting figure. Obama meets both of those adjectives. Hilliary does not fit the second criteria, and it is the biggest knock against her. If you're a Democrat, unless you are blindly loyal, it galls you to think that your best shot at redemption after eight years is to swallow hard, not gag, and vote for her (when it comes down to the licklog, though, you WILL vote for her, enough is enough) If youre Republican, well, this is too easy, Bill Volume 2, and you can exercise your hatred of Clintons with gusto. The biggest unknowns here are who can energize younger voters and who can capture women. Not all women are going to be thrilled with Hilliary, just like not all blacks are going to pull for Obama. The biggest challenge is who can appeal to the core constituencies in each party, each with their own extremes, win their parties' nomination and come back and capture the center.
