Say if OU crushes Tech, Tech drops big. Maybe OU jumps Texas maybe not. OSU then beats OU, dropping OU below/even lower than Texas. And Tech goes to B12 championship game... but even if they win, will they make up enough ground to jump Texas into the number 2 BCS spot?
No. Under that scenario, there are TWO 1 loss teams in the South: Texas and TT. Who do you think gets to play for the Big 12 title?
I truly think that when tech loses (which I honestly think they will in Norman) they will be severly punished by the voters. Tech is not a "texas" "ou" "bama" or "florida". They just don't have the name recognition that the traditional powerhouses have. Fair or unfair, they will see a significant drop in the human polls which will eliminate them from MNC consideration. Just my 2 cents but I think that's what we will see. So to answer the OP's question, I think you could see Texas not play in the CCG and play in the MNC ala Nebraska a few years back. Of course some other things have to happen but in the BCS world, anything is possible.
My first post on this after Saturday's games (its probably on page 4 by now) surmised that this is the best option for Texas. It simply has always been the rule that teams that lose drop. They would have to virtually not drop at all to stay ahead of Texas. Plus Texas would be guaranteed the highest computer rating in the Big 12. The thing to remember is that this option eliminates OU from the picture and pits 1-loss Tech vs. 1-loss Texas. I like our chances in that matchup. Also, this scenario follows the rule of thumb so far in the Big 12 South that the home team wins. I think it is very plausible. Plus, when you come down to it, I am not so sure Tech beats Missouri. Keep in mind that Tech's big wins have come at home. I could easily see Tech losing to both OU and Mizzou while OU loses in Stillwater. That would be a slam dunk for Texas, our cleanest, clearest path to the MNC short of an upset of Tech by Baylor.
But wait ... I have read on the internets that you have to win your conference championship to play in the MNC game, and I believe everything I read.