Playoff odds

I just played around with FiveThirtyEight's predictor for the CFP. I put in losses by Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma. The result shows Notre Dame and Bama in, with the other two spots split as follows:

• 61% -- Clemson
• 45% -- Texas
• 34% -- Georgia
• 34% -- UCF
• 11% -- Washington
• 8% -- Ohio State
• 3% -- Oklahoma
• 3% -- Utah

I don't give this very much credence, because it's hard to make a case for us over a 1-loss Clemson, a 2-loss Ohio State, a 2-loss Alabama, or an undefeated UCF, much less 3 of the 4. But I do think there's a sliver of a fraction of a chance of a prayer of a Hail Mary that it happens. It would require us to blow OU out, and at least two if not all three of the losses by Georgia, Clemson, and UCF to be lopsided. Of course, UCF losing would help too. And even then, we'd be hoping the voters put a lot of stock in conference championships and/or late-season results.

I guess we should start with a lopsided win over OU.

 

To quote Gen. Bob Neyland who's one of the most underrated coach's who ever blew a whistle: "statistics are for losers". We have 0% chance of making the playoffs. The committee will put UCF in before us. It's politics. The idea we'd go ahead of a 1 loss Clemson is Section 8 material.

 

We don’t need a 1 loss Clemson. Also error in OP - should be 2 loss Ga, not Bama. It would be Texas vs Ga or UCF for the last spot. What if UCF lost instead of Clemson?

 

It's not like the AP where winners automatically go ahead of losers. How in the hell is this even up for debate?

 

Thought I was replying to mchammer. Apologies for replying to my own post.

 

On the bright side, it would NOT be the first time that 538 demonstrated they don't know what they are doing LOL!

 

If Texas wins tomorrow we should be in. F Georgia. Is the SEC East better than the Big 12? And would 2 wins over a top 10 OU mean squat?

The only reason we have this stupid championship game is because Baylor and TCU both got jobbed because there wasn't a title game.

But now winning your conference doesnt mean anything?

 

I read if the teams ahead of Texas lose, then GA gets in due to strength of schedule. Who would we play in Sugar Bowl, Aggies?

 

I don't see any way we get in.

 

I tend to agree that we can’t pass UGA. But there are two spots at play — who else is impossible for us to pass?

Please note that I am NOT predicting this. A win puts us in the Sugar 9,999 times out of 10,000. My only point is that the 1 in 10,000 chance exists.

 

We win today 73-0 we still don't get in. We have 3 losses. What is it anyone doesn't understand?

 

This argument would be much more realistic had we just handled our business against Maryland.