QB battles to watch this spring

Texas

The candidates: Shane Buechele, Sam Ehlinger

Returning starter: Buechele and Ehlinger both started games in 2017

What to watch: The good thing is both young players have experience. The unsettling thing is neither really emerged as a top-level Big 12 starter in 2017. Coach Tom Herman put it this way after Texas' bowl win: "Neither of them has played so poorly that you can't fathom them being the starter, but neither of them has played well enough to where you're ready to anoint them." Ehlinger played well in the bowl game but must reduce the head-scratching turnovers from his play. Buechele produced some good moments last season but struggled to stay healthy.

http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...rgia-bulldogs-spring-practice-competitions-qb

 

I don't need more than records as a starter Shane 5-2 Sam 2-4 for me to be on team Beuschele. I also like his accuracy, efficiency, and turnover numbers better. I am a bottom-line kind-of girl myself. Shane gives us the best chance to win even if we win ugly. Go Shane!.

 

So you think "picking a team" within the team is the way fans should be.

 

I am always at odds with the majority of "scrimmage guys" and "message board guys" when it comes to quarterback battles so I am not afraid to get into the mud. I was team Major in the Applewhite/Simms battle. I was team Colt in the McCoy/Snead battle and team Case in the McCoy/Gilbert/Ash battles and I am team Shane in the Beuchele/Ellinger/incoming Frosh battle we have coming in. I usually side with winning record, intangibles, completion percentage, efficiency, and td/int ratio over things like yards, qbr, recruiting stars, physical size, 40 speed, etc. when it comes to who I like at QB.

Most message board fans (not necessarly on this board) especially on recruiting based sites focus their sites on physical attributes because they are focused more on recruiting than player development when the player is already in the program. They love things like physical size, forty times, etc and think a five star recruit who is number one in the country in recruiting is gold. The problem with this is that Vince Young is the exception and Chris Simms is the rule.

Colt McCoy was only a two-star recruit and I am not sure Kellin More was even that. Those guys broke records and were the winningest guys of all time. Doug Flutie was what 5'8"? Ty Detmer was 5'10". Jack Pardee played 6-man football in high school and is in the college football hall of fame. Baker Mayfield was a walk on at both Tech and Oklahoma. You can't coach intangibles and they make the difference between an okay guy and a guy that transcends the game.

While I am clearly not arguing that we have a game transcender on campus right now (jury still out on that one) we clearly have one kid who is ahead on record, accuracy, and decision making who is ultilitarian, and gets the job done and one who doesn't but shows flashes of occasional brilliance but more often shows poor decision making, really poor arm strength and accuracy, and poor time management and game management skills. With our defense and Dickson's Cousin coming in to punt, hopefully some improvement on the line and a favorable schedule a utilitarian Buechele can get us probably to an 8-5, 9-4, maybe 10-3 schedule and his senior year could make us a run at a Big XII title. Then one of these recruits coach brought in could be ready to take us to the promise land.

 

Personally I'm on Team Texas, but that's just me.

But to your point:

Shane's wins:
San Jose State
Iowa State
Baylor
Kansas
Missouri** (I'm sorry, but including that as a "Shane" win is pretty ridiculous. And let's be honest. If Iowa State changes QBs one week earlier, we lose that game.)

Shane's losses:
Maryland
TCU

Sam's wins:
West Virginia
Kansas State

Sam's losses:
USC
Oklahoma
Ok. State
Tech

All that shows me is that Shane played more garbage teams (and lost to one of them, though granted that was more on the defense.) Basically, the only three wins on that list that were worth mentioning were from Sam.

That's not to pick one over the other. It's to say that using wins and losses from last year as a barometer of which one gives us the best chance to win doesn't make much sense. So how bout we just let them compete and see what happens?

 

So in the bowl game, Shane throws a TD on the first drive, which was after Missouri committed an interference penalty, a holding, and a face mask. Sam then comes in, and drives the offense for a TD capped with his TD pass. Then, Shane gets injured and Sam finishes the game that we win 33-16. So that's one of Shane's wins?

Call that a Sam win, and then he wins the San Jose, K State, West Va games--that's 4, with two excellent wins; and loses OU, OSU, and USC in VERY close games, probably our three toughest opponents, and loses to Tech, which was a bad loss. So, I call it 4-4
Shane beat Baylor and Kansas, two horrible teams, lost to Maryland, a horrible loss, beat Iowa State, a good win, and lost to TCU, which is understandable. 3-2 against a far weaker schedule.

Sam: 11 TDs 7 INTs; QBR 53
Shane 7 TD's 4 INTs; QBR 41 (against weaker teams)

Plus, Shane had had a whole year in the system as starting QB before Sam even got out of HS. I read a piece on Horns247 that went deeply into the data and showed that Sam was better as a passer, as a runner and overall.

You of course are free to disagree, but to act as if it is somehow "clear" that Shane is better is too simple.

Finally, as to Sam's "boneheaded" plays. It is completely different for a player on an un-ranked underdog team (yes, that was UT) in the last seconds of games against heavily favored highly-ranked teams (yes, that was USC, OU, and OSU) to try a desperate last-second thing when behind in the game to try to win it than for a favored team to lose a lead and a game because the QB turns the ball over. For that matter, Shane's taking of the sack in the OU game at the end was probably the bone-headed candidate for that game, not Sam throwing the ball out of bounds on 4th and long.

If either of these guys is healthy and gets blocking, we can win with them.

 

Were you Team McBath or Team Aune?

 

Sam threw for 222 and ran for 48; Shane did not attempt a pass or a run. Did Shane somehow start that game? If so, it can't really be called his game.

 

I was McBath all the way.
I will also confess, I wasn't a big Marty Akins guy. Okay, flame away....

 

I was never McBath, until that Sun Bowl game he came back for, but damn he was brilliant starting that one.

Aune had the strongest arm we had seen on The Forty Acres since Benny Pace. FWIW, Benny & Rick McIvor are the two strongest arms I've ever seen. Aune wasn't far behind.

 

Some of that analysis may be accurate, but you have to show me when Shane played defense against Maryland and why he was responsible for the defense giving up over 50 points to an average, at best, offense. And Sam did throw away very winnable games against all of USC, OU, OSU and Tech. A healthy Shane probably would have won at least 2 of those games the defense was so good. All we needed from the QB was don't give the game away. Of course we can speculate all day about what might have been, but that's my belief about those 4 loses against supposedly really good teams. Tech certainly wasn't even a good defense and Sam managed to blow that.

 

Well to be fair Shane gets credit for starts against Missouri and WVU which both played. I think both played well and deserve win against MU. I would give Sam credit for WVU. The rest of Shane's starts were Shane's games and Sam's starts were Sam's games. If Shane doesn't start games due to Sam's concussion in the middle of the year plus his start against Iowa State I am not sure Texas gets Bowl Eligible. His drive and first half game plan got us off to the right start against Missouri and they had Sam come in playing in Shane's game plan and he played well and made no turnovers. I don't think Sam could beat ISU who beat OU in Norman and TCU as well. Shane put on a clinic on how to run out the clock which if you watch the Sam start against Tech is clearly something Sam doesn't have down yet. Shane had 60 something yards rushing on the last drive and did most of it on a high ankle sprain. He got the ball with over 9 minutes left in the 4th and a 10 point lead and did not give the ball back to ISU.

At the end of the day I agree with the fan that says I am on team Texas. Even if I don't agree with who coach is starting I always hope the team wins and that the kid in there gets better even if I am proven wrong. If I am not proven wrong I hope coach gets it quickly and makes a change. What I don't want is a miss on who starts to set the program back years like Garrett Gilbert.

 

Horngal,

Be careful. While I have not admitted it, I was totally wrong about Maryland. I was roundly criticized for posting that UMd would finish in the second half of the BigTen. Indeed, that was not correct; they finished in a three way tie for 11th out of 14 teams, with a 4-8 record, but were overwhelming in conference with a 2-7 record. Out of conference, they were 2-1, beating us & mighty Towson (name the mascot).

They were certainly a force to be reckoned with.

 

I don't know about Benny Pace, but Rick McIvor had the strongest arm I've ever seen, pro or college. Against Miami (before they were the convicts), McIvor was backpedalling under heavy rush and without stopping, he threw a 40 plus yard completion. That was all arm, baby. He probably should have thrown all passes while backpedalling. He threw so hard that his receivers were afraid of the ball. He would throw a 15 yard pass that would ricochet off what was left of the receiver's hands and fly another 20 yards downfield. The dude was amazing!

 

The fact that we are even having this discussion suggests that there is no clear cut leader. No definitive separation.

With the necessary support systems I believe that either can win most of the games at Texas. Ehlinger is the wild card. He can snatch victory from defeat, and he can certainly snatch defeat from almost certain victory as we have seen. If he can be taught to manage the game and to make wise decisions, then Sam can be special. But I have my doubts. Big doubts. I also think that he may be prone to head injuries, often self-induced because of the way he plays.

In crunch time and with a supporting cast, Buechele would probably be my choice. But, because of the lack of separation between the two and the obvious liabilities of each, my guess is that TH wants to see what he has with the two freshmen.

I think that it’s still wide open.

 

I am Team Texas too. Usually the “team so and so” people are too emotionally invested in a player. If this decade long dearth of qb talent has been good for anyhthing , we seem to have grown Up as a fan base for it as we have not had the luxury of having two really good qbs at the same time for a long time. The “Team Applewhite” vs Team Sims thing was the stupidest ... I don’t think i have ever been as embarrassed to be a Horn. no one could remember their guy’s bad games and could only remember The others failures. Some of their dogma went so far as to believe Applewhite had a fake an injury so Mack could appease Phil Sims.

Hopefully we’re beyond that as a fan base now. I have a guy I would prefer in the ideal situation but it doesn’t really matter who steps up as long as someone steps up.

 

I think Shane did enough to win this game along with special teams.
I count this as the only loss of the season for Todd Orlando.

 

Whole team was rotten against MD and that is Shane's bad loss as a starter. His other loss was to a TCU team we would have lost to no matter which kid started.

 

While I definitely had an opinion on Simms/Applewhite I was never okay with the fans that would boo Simms or root for TX to fail just to prove Mack wrong. I always have an opinion and will state my opinion vocally (I am a classic extrovert) I would never stoop to those levels. At the end of the day they are all my team, my guys and I cheer them and root for them to win.

 

My thoughts after careful study of opposing and neutral points

Shane didn't play against San Jose State. He was injured and not cleared.

As to level of opponent argument somebody made, most of Sam's starts were when Shane was injured not cleared to play and vice versa so this was beyond both kids' control. I am going to throw that argument out since Sam couldn't play against Baylor and Kansas in Concussion Protocol and Shane wasn't cleared to go against USC.

Completion Percentage and TD/INT ratio are more important to me than QBR because they paint the broader picture of what we are seeing both in the blue collar no-nonsense wins for Buechele and in the late game collapses for Ellinger.

Arm strength and accuracy are clearly advantages in Shane's camp with the higher completion percentage. We can also see this on film when we see him hit his receiver in stride who got open behind the defense on the first play against Kansas. 5 times against Tech I counted longhorn receivers getting open behind the receivers. Five times Ellinger missed them wildly. He does not have the arm strength are accuracy on the longer passes in the playbook. With the turnover ratio you see the ints like the pick 6 against Maryland or the two late picks against tech. The fumbles aren't in this stat but should also be noted.

I get the point from the person noting that because I do see this from the lens of bias that I only see the benefits of my guy and the deficits of the other guy. This is true to a point. I do give Sam credit that he played extremely well in his two start wins especially Kansas State in overtime (a chimpanzee could have started and beat SJSU) and he took over for Shane and played well and beat WVU though he made the dumbest play I have seen in my 41 years on this planet. Both played and played well against MU. The issue for me is that both of Shane's losses were games we didn't lose because he played bad. The defense was terrible against Maryland only to buy into Todd Orlando and fix it for the rest of the year. We just didn't match up against TCU. The loss I give Sam that deference to was OU. The rest of Sam's losses we blew leads late and lost directly or indirectly from turnovers committed by Sam. He is simply making mistakes that Shane isn't making. A common defense for these mistakes is that Sam is only a freshman and therefore we must be forgiving of his foolhardy choices. The issue for me is Buechele started last year as a freshman and didn't make that many mistakes.

Some of you prefer high risk/reward choices and that's fine sometimes. I prefer low risk/high reward in this case. I am not sure the occasional flash is worth the risk of another 7-6 or 8-5 season. Texas has higher expectations then that and Herman needs to prove to alumni and big donors that he can win at this level. Stakes are too high to gamble that this kid isn't going to fumble the ball on the goalline in 2OT against USC or throw a pick 6 when he should take a sack against West Virginia.

Maybe our next superstar is in this batch of incoming recruits. Maybe he's not on campus yet. Maybe when Shane comes back from surgery he puts on a few lbs (like Colt did his Junior year) and puts this thing away. All I know is that if Ellinger is the guy and he still tries to be superman when he needs to be himself we are going to be in trouble.

 

BTW I got San Jose wrong, that was Sam. I was confused because you counted Missouri as a Shane win. If you're only counting games based on who started, I don't think that's much of a standard, but at least it's consistent.

Maybe you mis-phrased this, but you basically just said that Comp. Pct and TD/INT mean more to you because they bolster your argument, and the other doesn't. That's fine if you really believe that, but you can't be critical of people who disagree - and a whole bunch of people who know football would disagree. No one's discounting those numbers, just saying they don't tell the whole story. Lots of guys can complete high percentage when they're only throwing dink passes to running backs in the flat, for example.

And since Sam's a freshman, I'd expect his arm strength will improve. As did Colt's, and as does pretty much every 18-year-old kid. Shane definitely throws a more accurate deep ball.

Yep. But you're missing the problem with you having a "guy."

And some of us look past the basic superficial stuff and look at what was happening in the game. Shane's performances simply weren't good enough to say "he should be our guy (to use your words." He has a two-year track record now of essentially being unable to put points on the board consistently. A big part of that has to do with the run game and the pass protection, which is why I've always said that it's tough to judge either of them based on what we saw last year.

Which goes back to my point, which is everyone needs to cool their jets and stop trying to "anoint" someone when we haven't gotten through spring practice yet.

 

I gave both the MU win upthread. Colts accuracy and arm strength did improve some but even as a freshman he was pretty good as was Shane. You forget that Colt started as a redshirt fresh and Shane as a true fresh. Both had better arm and more accurate than Sam even as frosh. Yes all kids can and do improve but Sam has farther to go. Because of baseball Shane grew up with a strong arm naturally. He just simply has a better arm. Both can and should improve and I'm sure Beck and company will work on it with the kids in the off season.

 

You know we are going to keep going back ad forth making good points and neither of us are going change each other's minds. I think we are going to have to agree to disagree and cancel each other's vote.

 

I like Shane's deep ball. Its too bad he never got a chance to stand in the pocket and thrown it like that this season.
Sam's deep ball is not accurate at all. He was also getting pressure but he was also self-pressuring himself to throw on the run all season. I wonder if he was better coached to step up into the pocket and throw if he could be more accurate.

 

Just read an article on ESPN detailing our QB battle. I don't know how to post it here. Herman says that Buechele is the most accurate QB he has ever been around. Considering some of the guys he had at the Ohio State a few years ago that is saying something. Article was pretty fair to both kids. Basically it said for each:

Shane:
Pros:
Arm strength
Accuracy
Game mmanagement/decision making
Avoidance of turnovers
Cons:
Injury prone
Quiet personality
While not a statue, not being as mobile
Not having flash or pizzazz

Sam
Pros:
Mobility
Pizzazz
Vocal leadership
Willing to take big risks
He can extend plays

Cons:
Turnovers especially late in games
Struggles with accuracy especially on longer routes
Poor decision making
Takes unnecessary risks

 

My point is simply that I can't imagine anyone appointing a starter after that season. I'm not lobbying for Sam to start. I'm saying one of them needs to go earn the spot, and neither of them have done it. So I'm not looking to have a "vote." I'm rooting for someone to be good enough that Herman hands him the reins and lets him go.

With a (I hope) improved offensive line and another year under their belts, we'll see how they look this spring. But if we're having this discussion this time next year, it's time to start looking at the new guys.

 

If Shane just ups his pizzazz factor the job is his.

I recommend he start wearing suspenders or a scarf or something to give him some pizzazz.

 

You can find article on simple bing search by plugging "Shane Buechele" in the search box.

 

Fair enough.

 

I love Shane's deep ball too. Part of the problem with us not seeing it this year was the line not giving him enough time to throw it and part of it was his injuries this year. We did see a flash of it on the first play against KU. He has the prettiest touch on a deep ball I have ever seen and he blows out of the water the old "conventional wisdom" of hacks at ESPN that thought short QB equaled week arm. Of course his baseball past has something to do with it. Outfielders have to be able to hit cut-off man, catcher has to nail guy at second steeling, infielders have to get ball around diamond on relay plays, etc. All nine have to have arms and some of them are sub 5'9". That play from the outfield in the world series from the Astros was one of the best I have seen in years and they don't beat the Dodgers without it. I think that is why his arm is naturally better than Sam's is because he comes from a baseball background. I am not saying Sam can't get better, he just comes from way further back and has way further to go.

If I was Beck I would have Sam throwing footballs through tires all summer until he could hit the wide side of the barn at 50 paces. Shane needs to work on putting on a few pounds, do some yoga/pilates to prevent injuries and speak up and be more vocal as a leader.

As to Shane starting, with coach's latest comments I think if he puts on a few lbs and stays out of the mash unit I think he starts him and leaves him in pizzazz or not. As to how many points each kid put on the board, we had a patched up o-line and had to win ugly last year. Neither kid was going to score oodles of points. I didn't hold ugly wins against either kid last year. Akers was always clobbered here because he won games ugly like 10-7 but I am in the camp that a W is a W and I don't care if the score is 17-7 or 55-14. We got spoiled with VY and Colt but sometimes we have to take old ugly and remember DKR when he said "Old ugly is better than old nothing."