Teams to root for in 2018 (to help Texas' SOS/RPI)

Discussion in 'Women’s Basketball' started by Moooooo, Jan 6, 2018.

  1. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Did not realize LSU had lost at 11-11 Auburn on Thursday night; so, good thing for us they turned around and beat A&M today.
     
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  2. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

  3. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Louisville at UConn tonight.

    Rooting for UConn for many reasons
     
  4. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Non-conference opponents whose RPI's are really hurting us:

    #259 McNeese State
    #295 UTSA
    #311 Northwestern State


    Non-conference opponents whose RPI's aren't so bad:

    #157 Louisiana Tech
    #174 Stetson


    Non-conference opponents (from major conferences) whose RPI are helping us:

    #2 UConn
    #5 Florida State
    #7 Tennessee
    #22 Georgia (part of Big 12 / SEC Challenge)
    #26 LSU (Vegas tourney)
    #175 Washington (Vegas tourney)


    Big 12 Conference opponents RPI's (very weak this year, IMO, and mainly due to poor OOC scheduling):

    #8 Baylor
    #9 Texas
    #30 Oklahoma
    #44 Okie State
    #52 West Virginia
    #59 TCU
    #84 Kansas State
    #119 Iowa State
    #165 Kansas
    #227 Texas Tech
     
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  5. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    For those five "cupcakes" in non-conference who are mainly regional teams, here are some who could have been better options (and some who we've played in the past):

    #60 Houston
    #86 New Mexico
    #98 Rice
    #101 Tulane
    #110 Lamar
    #113 Arkansas-Little Rock
    #130 Central Arkansas
    #133 SFA
    #136 UTEP
    #153 Texas State
    #162 Louisiana-Lafayette
    #168 Tulsa
    #178 UTA
    #182 Southern
    #187 Arkansas State
    #192 SMU
    #194 Oral Roberts

    I realize non-conference scheduling does come with certain obstacles, and is not an exact science when predicting opponents' success. But, in the future, I'd like us to avoid scheduling anyone with a projected RPI greater than #200. It just doesn't do us any good in SOS, fan attendance, competition, etc.
     
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  6. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Baylor plays at Oklahoma State tonight at 7 PM Central on FSN.

    If OSU doesn't win, that might pretty much wrap up the conference title for Baylor as their remaining games are at home against Kansas, at Texas, at TCU, and at home against West Virginia.
     
  7. utfannforlife

    utfannforlife 500+ Posts

    It all starts with us. If we do what we need to do, hoping for another 3pt barrage miracle from TCU
     
  8. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Moooooo, which RPI site do you use? I lost the ones I had bookmarked when my computer crashed a few months ago.

    Where does North Texas rank in RPI? I would like to see us play some teams that have former UT players/coaches on staff like Houston, SMU, N Tx if playing them would not hurt our OOC RPI.
     
  9. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    This RPI site updates as soon as the game is concluded. First year I've come across it, and I really like it. The only thing I don't like is that you can't really go back in time to view how things were as a of a date in the past.

    http://warrennolan.com/basketballw/2018/rpi-live

    North Texas is currently ranked #221.
     
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  10. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Tennessee just lost at home tonight to unranked Alabama. That will help us move ahead of the Lady Vols in RPI (assuming we beat OSU on Saturday).

    Georgia hosting South Carolina tonight. Go 'Dawgs!
     
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  11. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Thanks, Moooooo.
     
  12. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    On Thursday, Georgia ended up losing to South Carolina at home; so, the 'Dawgs fall in RPI.

    Friday night, Oregon has to go to 2OT to hold off USC at home. Oregon losing would have been great for us.

    UCLA playing at Oregon State at the moment. Really need UCLA to lose, and then go to Oregon and beat the Duck on Monday night.
     
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  13. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Oregon State beats UCLA in OT on Friday night. Good for us.
     
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  14. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    #11 Tennessee loses at #13 Mizzou on Sunday.

    Tennessee remained ahead of us in RPI despite their loss to Alabama on Thursday, and our win at OSU yesterday.
     
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  15. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    So I am guessing that the Tenn loss was good for us?
    Thanks for keeping this thread updated, Moooooo. It's awesome to check be able to check this after games.
     
  16. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Well, even with the losses over the last couple of days, UCLA and Tennessee remain ahead of us in RPI. Their SOS is better than ours, probably because we played too many non-conference opponents with beyond #200 RPI rankings.

    But, the committee doesn't simply go by RPI when revealing their last two Top 16 rankings. Third reveal is Monday night.

    IIRC correctly, we were ahead of both Tennessee and UCLA in the last rankings. I have not been able to understand what the committee is doing when ranking South Carolina and not ranking Ohio State; doesn't even come close to RPI rankings.

    I expect the same Top 11 teams (from last reveal) to remain in the top group, except a different order from 5-11:

    UConn
    Miss. State
    Louisville
    Notre Dame
    Oregon
    Baylor
    South Carolina
    Florida State
    Texas
    UCLA
    Tennessee

    My predictions:

    UConn
    Miss. State
    Notre Dame
    Louisville
    Baylor
    Florida State
    Oregon
    Texas
    UCLA
    Tennessee
    South Carolina (who I think should be even lower)
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2018
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  17. jusme828

    jusme828 1,000+ Posts

    UCLA plays Oregon tomorrow night. Which one of those teams would help us out with a win? Either?
     
  18. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Well, their game is after our game. So, if we beat Baylor we move up a bit over the loser of that PAC game, and possible both. If we don't win, we stay below both most likely.
     
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  19. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    A few minutes after I posted above that Tennessee and UCLA were still ahead of us in RPI, there must have been some trickle-down effect from other games as we are now ahead of Tennessee by one spot, and right below UCLA.
     
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  20. DFW_Horn

    DFW_Horn 1,000+ Posts

    The selection committee released their final reveal of the their Top 16 and included the regional placement:
    The other undefeated team beside UConn, Mississippi State, is the No. 1 seed in the Kansas City Regional. Joining the Bulldogs there are No. 2 Texas, No. 3 UCLA, and No. 4 Maryland.”

    Obviously a lot can change between now and the tourney, starting tonight.

    The order of the teams, 1-16 is: No. 1 UConn, No. 2 Mississippi State, No. 3 Louisville, No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 5 Baylor, No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 South Carolina, No. 8 Texas, No. 9 Florida State, No. 10 UCLA, No. 11 Missouri, No. 12 Tennessee, No. 13 Ohio State, No. 14 Maryland, No. 15 Georgia, No. 16 Stanford.
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2018
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  21. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    So, Oklahoma State was upset at Kansas on Wednesday night; their RPI dropped from #55 to #63. That hurts us and Baylor as far as "quality" wins; also hurts the perception of the Big 12 conference nationally if they don't get in the tourney.

    Tennessee and Miss. State also beat OSU, but only once. Still, it lessens their "quality" non-conference win.

    Tonight, LSU at South Carolina. Could really help us if LSU pulls of the upset.
     
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  22. jusme828

    jusme828 1,000+ Posts

    Well, LSU lost. And I am watching the ugliest SEC game I think I've ever seen. OT for Georgia and Alabama with the score 40-40. Pretty close to a combined 50 turnovers!!
     
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  23. jusme828

    jusme828 1,000+ Posts

    Georgia pulls out the win, 49-43.
     
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  24. JoeDallas

    JoeDallas 500+ Posts

    Question for Moooooo or whoever: Does it matter to us whether Tennessee or S. Carolina wins today? I read on espn that we are almost for sure going to be a 2 seed (I guess assuming we don't flub up against OU and/or in the tourney). Even if we beat Baylor, no chance at a 1 apparently. Moooooo, what region are you hoping for for us? I have a feeling we could be headed for UConn's region again.
     
  25. LutherIsMyDog

    LutherIsMyDog 1,000+ Posts

    I hope we beat Baylor in the Big 12 tourney just to silence some of the media who seem to be aghast that Baylor isn't a one seed. Very few commentators mention Baylor's weak strength of schedule that contribute to being a 2 seed. With that said, I admit they are a tough opponent.

    Unless Moooo....comes up with a logical reason that I should cheer for S. Carolina, I'm going to root for Tennessee today. Holly is getting a lot of heat from the Tennessee fans and a win over S. Carolina could prolong her tenure at Tennessee. I think Tennessee is a very talented but young team. When a coach has to play so many Freshmen, it's hard to sustain the momentum throughout the season. Tennessee started out on fire and I think they just ran out of gas. They will be a force next year.

    On the other hand, we are competing with S. Carolina for several recruits. Selfishly, anything that might slow down their recruiting efforts is okay with me.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2018
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  26. JoeDallas

    JoeDallas 500+ Posts

    Good reasoning. It's a little hard for me to be for Tennessee, just a conditioned response from the old days. But I kind of like Holly and am tired of hearing her blasted on the UConn board. But I'm also a little tired of hearing how great the Tennessee freshmen are, comparing their many hours of playing time to our freshmen. Could be a very good game. I don't understand seeding much, but S.C. is ranked above Tennessee, right? So seeing S.C. go down might be good for us? I really would like to stay out of the UConn bracket, but then I can't think of a bracket I would really want to be in. I would kind of like to see us meet up with Louisville. If we are in the UConn bracket, though, that challenge could actually be fun. We have proven that we can play with them and it would be more fun to beat them than anyone else by a long shot. (I know they think they are invincible.)
     
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  27. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    Yes, Tennessee's victory today (they lead by 20 with 2 minutes left in the game) is better for us. Hard to tell how much it will help since we lost to Baylor since Monday's #8 ranking; but, if we have any hopes of surpassing #7 South Carolina (and not relying on the committee to "adjust" our placement in the bracket due to their guideline) this is a great start, IMO.
     
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  28. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    LSU beat 'Bama 79-78 today to clinch the #4 seed in the SEC tournament and a double-bye; helps us for sure. They are tied with Mizzou and A&M who both have been in/out out/in for a #12-16 ranking. Wonder how close LSU is to getting a national seed; our victory over them turned out to be a lot stronger than I would have thought back in November.
     
  29. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    I never got around to posting my thoughts after the committee's final reveal a back on 02/19.

    Rankings line up with the S-curve seeds very well, give or take the procedural bumps to avoid conference matchups
    1. UConn (No. 1 seed – Albany Region)
    2. Mississippi State (No. 1 seed – Kansas City Region)
    3. Louisville (No. 1 seed – Lexington Region)
    4. Notre Dame (No. 1 seed – Spokane Region)
    5. Baylor
    6. Oregon
    7. South Carolina
    8. Texas
    9. Florida State
    10. UCLA
    11. Missouri
    12. Tennessee
    13. Ohio State
    14. Maryland
    15. Georgia
    16. Stanford

    Regional Assignments

    Albany:
    1. UConn
    2. South Carolina (bumped down from #7 to #8 to avoid having the top 2 seeds in Kansas City from the SEC )
    3. Florida State
    4. Stanford

    Kansas City:
    1. Mississippi State
    2. Texas (bumped up from #8 to #7 to avoid having both SC & Miss. State in Kansas City)
    3. UCLA
    4. Maryland (bumped down from #14 to #15 to avoid a potential Georgia/Miss. State round of 16 matchup in Kansas City)

    Lexington:
    1. Louisville (bumped down from #3 to #4 to sell tickets in Lexington)
    2. Baylor
    3. Tennessee (helps ticket sales in Lexington)
    4. Ohio State (helps ticket sales in Lexington)

    Spokane:
    1. Notre Dame (bumped up from #4 to #3)
    2. Oregon (helps ticket sales in Spokane)
    3. Missouri
    4. Georgia (bumped up from #15 to #14 to not be in the same Regional as SEC #2 seed Miss. State)
     
  30. Moooooo

    Moooooo 2,500+ Posts

    I think we are safely a number #2 seed, but still in danger of finding ourselves in the UConn region if the committee has to make some "procedural" bumps. On the 02/19 reveal, we fortunately got bumped out of the UConn regional where we would normally find ourselves based on our #8 ranking.

    The reason was that we switched spots with #7 South Carolina so they would avoid being placed with fellow SEC team, #2 Miss. State.

    As teams have had wins/losses since then (and will have this week), if Miss. State falls to the #3 seed, for example, then we don't get swapped with South Carolina, and we go to Albany, NY. If South Carolina moves up to #6 in the ranking, then again, we could get sent to Albany, NY. It's a very precarious situation to be in.

    One of the things we really need is for Miss. State to win the SEC tournament, and South Carolina to lose to Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinals on Friday. That would be ideal.
     
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