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Discussion in 'On The Field' started by odehorn, Feb 14, 2019.
Did I read it wrong?
2019’s projected 130-team S&P+ rankings, from Bama to UTEP
BON had a good article explaining why
I'm reasonably good with spreadsheets. I can come up with some nonesense like the subject rating system as well.
But, rather than waste time on that, just look at the results of their number crunching (otherwise known as pressing ENTER after entering all the data). Note: it apparently relies upon 3 parameters "recruiting impact (whatever that means)", "returning production (I guess that's a fancy way of saying returning starters)", and "weighted 5-year (what is weighted is not revealed to us)".
Two of those three parameters are historical, one is perhaps forward looking (recruiting impact).
So, if it's mostly based on recent history, including 2018, why does it (their fancy spreadsheet) conclude that Georgia is a 2 and LSU is a 4, but neither made the Final Four this past season?
Beyond that, it looks spot on. Huh?
I'm betting the ranch this year on Mississippi State, number 10 with a bullet.
We have a ton of defensive starters to replace, a very shaky running back situation and no quarterback depth. Maybe they are assuming Sam will get hurt as might Keaontay. We still have to prove some things. I think we have a much higher ceiling if we have good luck on the injury front and the newbies on defense play to their star rating.
F all preseason rankings! I would rather start with low ranking and work our way up anyway. Better than being ranked too high and get knocked out early. Remember the golden domers in Charlies second year and USC last year?
From a purely objective standpoint, we have a lack of proven players to put on the field. 35 isn't where we should be ranked, but I could see a computer putting us there for now.
The methodology is clearly explained. You get credit for returning starter production based on 2018. Other players are assumed to be team avererage for the last 5 years. The money we are still paying Coach Strong is compensation for manageable performance expectations.
a little more optimistic according to the Mother Ship
Updated Way-Too-Early Top 25 college football rankings
Agree but the problem is the lower you are ranked the harder to crack 10 or above.
If we've beaten LSU, OU and the other teams we played by mid October, this February analysis will be about as relevant as 5 pounds of corn eaten in a feedlot last week.
Yea, if we're undefeated after the OU game I bet we are top ten.
Stay that way and by the end of October probably top 5.
After a loss, almost any loss, it seems like you fall a certain number of spots regardless of where you were in the polls. So if you start ranked in the top 5, you're a lot more likely to wind up there at the end of a one-loss season. A team that starts unranked, then loses only one game, allows a lot of folks to say, "See, I knew they weren't that good; they lost that one game."
Look at Alabama. Of their five national titles under Saban, only one of them was an undefeated season. High preseason rankings and lots of benefit of the doubt have helped that happen.
Beat LSU and OU and be undefeated come November 1 and Texas is a top 4 team in every poll and controls its own destiny.
Regardless of the formula, algorithm or whatever, that ranking is silly. There is reason to believe that the offense - with Ehlinger, CJ returning, the new stud playmakers, and the evolving and soon to be bolstered OL — will be a force this season.
On D, while it is true that we need to replace Johnson, Nelson, Omenihu and the corners, I really like the roster. When the Chargers shut down KC late in the season with 6 or 7 DBs (if I recall correctly), a blueprint may have been laid. With our back end talent, we may experiment with some different looks to get our highly athletic players like Sterns, Foster, Jones, Overshown, and Owens on the field at the same time.
I fully expect a run at the CFP this year.
I think we get into the CFP. We may even play for the MNC, we have that much going for us. And Orlando can scheme around our lack of depth with the cupboard he now has at DBU.
We can plug in J Whitington at RB if need be. I would think we will pick up a grad transfer RB as well.
That's mean. Funny, but mean.
This. By November 1, we'd have wins against LSU, OKSt, WVU, OU, and TCU. That would almost certainly be one of the few best resumes in the country.
In fact, a big win against LaTech followed by any win against LSU probably get us into the top 10. No matter where we are ranked preseason, the LSU win will mark us as a legit contender.
I think we have a national championship schedule. If we win all our games then the process will take care of itself. Hopefully Notre Dame was exposed last year. But I don't want to be accused of being a sunshine pumper. It's just that at the moment, we control our destiny.
Seems like a lot of work for these rankings. Personally, I don't care about rankings until mid season.
Are we finished with payments to Chuck? IIRC he had two years left on the K for compensation, but I don't know how that is actually paid out to him.
Yes. We're off the hook this year. By the way, the official rankings won't use this methodology. I bet we start the season top15, maybe even top 10.