Texas vs UConn in the Elite Eight

Texas and UConn resume their series on Monday, March 28, 2016 at 6 PM on ESPN. UConn leads the series 6-0. The closest game was the first one on April 06, 2003 in the Final Four semis, when Texas lost 69-71. In addition to meeting up with UConn last year in the Sweet 16 and this year in the Elite Eight, Texas and UConn will start a two year home and home series in 2017. This game Monday will be a #1 UConn matchup with a #2 Texas in the Elite Eight.

Four of the five starters for the UConn Huskies are averaging in double figures in scoring. The fifth is 0.7 ppg from giving them five starters in double figures. Breanna Stewart (# 30, 6-4 Sr. F) is the leader at 19.3 ppg. Morgan Tuck (# 3, 6-2 Sr. F) averages 13.0 ppg. Moriah Jefferson (# 4, 5-7 Sr. G) adds 12.7 ppg. Katie Lou Samuelson (# 33, 6-3 Fr. G/F) brings 11.2 ppg to the game. The fifth starter, Kia Nurse (# 11, 6-0 Soph. G) has a 9.3 ppg average. The top scorer from the bench, Gabby Williams (# 15. 5-11 Soph. G) has a 9.0 ppg average. Those six players account for 74.5 ppg of UConn’s 88.5 ppg scoring average. They are also the only players to have taken at least 200 shot attempts in 35 games. Williams has the best FG% at 63.9% (138-216). Stewart (252-431; 58.5%), Jefferson (171-307; 55.7%) and Tuck (157-310; 50.6%) are all making over 50% of their shots. Nurse (119-270; 44.1%) and Samuelson (141-285; 49.5%) are reaching for that 50%. All five starters are 3pt threats with Tuck the weak link at 28.8% (21-73). But the other four are solid shooters, led by Jefferson (48-111; 43.2%). Stewart (39-93; 41.9%), Samuelson (74-190; 38.9%) and Nurse (47-133; 35.3%) are the other main 3pt threats. Stewart is the tops in getting to the FT line (112-135) but she is only fifth in FT% at 83.0%. Jefferson and Napheesa Collier (# 24, 6-1 Fr. F/G) share the top FT% at 91.1%. Both are 41-45 from the FT line. Saniya Chong (# 12, 5-8 Jr. G) is third at 85.7% (24-28). Samuelson is fourth with a FT% of 83.7% on 36-43. Tuck is second to Stewart in FTs made and attempted (54-70; 77.1%).

Stewart is the leading rebounder at 8.6 rpg but three other Huskies average over 5 rebs per game: Tuck (5.9 rpg), Williams (5.7 rpg) and Collier (5.3 rpg). Natalie Butler (# 51, 6-4 Soph. C) adds 4.4 rpg in 13 minutes off the bench. Three players have at least 100 assists: Jefferson (183), Stewart (134) and Tuck (100). The other two starters, Nurse and Samuelson, have 96 and 80 assists, respectively. Seeing and making that extra pass that leads to an easy basket is second nature to them.

Stewart is far and away their premier shot blocker with 120 blocks, almost three times as many as second place Collier who has 45 blocks. UConn is third nationally with 430 steals. Jefferson tops the team with 92 steals. Williams adds 69 steals while Stewart is third with 62 steals. Nurse (49) and Collier (47) also have demonstrated a nose for grabbing steals.

Surprising, Nurse is the only player to start all 35 games. Six players, including Nurse, have at least 11 starts. Three others have at least one start. Jefferson’s 30.3 mpg tops the squad. Stewart (28.4 mpg) and Nurse (27.6 mpg) are second and third in minutes played. Nine players average double digit minutes per game, as much as a result of their overwhelming opponents which allows UConn to play their reserves a lot. Their main rotation is seven players: Stewart, Tuck, Jefferson, Samuelson, Nurse, Williams and Collier. Also getting double digits minutes are Butler (13.0 mpg in 24 games) and Chong (13.4 mpg in 30 games).

Horns will bring three players averaging double digit scoring to the game: Brooke (11.7 ppg), Imani (11.5 ppg) and Ariel (10.9 ppg). Brooke (147-320; 45.9%) and Imani (155-306; 50.7%) have been the leading shooters for the Horns. Ariel (103-194; 53.1%) and Kelsey (100-191; 52.4%) join Imani as the players hitting over 50% of their shots from the field. Four players serve as the primary long distance shooters for the Horns: Brooke (63-152; 41.4%), Celina (32-92; 34.8%), Empress (21-78; 26.9%) and Ariel (18-55; 32.7%). Imani is the only Horn to have passed 100 FT attempts as she leads the team with 88-112 for a 78.6%. Empress is second to Imani in FTs made & attempted with 61 of 82 for a percentage of 74.4%. Three players are making over 80% of their FTs: Ariel with a team leading 81.9% (59-72), Kelsey (35-43; 81.4%) and Brady (17-21; 81.0%).

Imani is the leading rebounder at 9.0 rpg with Kelsey (4.5 rpg), Brianna (4.4 rpg) and Ariel (4.0 rpg) providing strong support. Celina is the top distributor with 133 assists while Brooke has passed for 89 assists and Empress has set up teammates 74 times. Imani has 103 blocks for the Horns. Kelsey has 30 and three others have seven blocks each. Horns have four players with 40 plus steals: LaShann (46), Brooke (43), Brianna (43) and Celina (42). Ariel chips in with 34 steals while Imani adds 28.

Seven players have seen action in all games they have been available for. For five, that has been for all 35 games. For two, their availability has been shortened by injuries. Brooke, Imani, Celina, Empress and Kelsey have played in all 35 games. Ariel has played in 26 games with 13 starts. Brianna has seen action in 33 games with 18 starts. Horns have primarily used 9 players with eight seeing at least 10 minutes per game. LaShann has settled down and has provided a big spark on both ends of the floor in the last few games. She will give Texas another player to throw into the guard mix in this game. Brooke’s 30.8 mpg is the tops for the team. Celina, Imani, Empress and Ariel all play 20 plus minutes a game. LaShann, Kelsey and Brianna all play in the mid to high teens.

Projected starters based on the last game:

Texas______________UConn
Imani (6-7)________ Tuck (6-2)
Ariel (5-11)_______ Stewart (6-4)
Empress (5-9)_____ Samuelson (6-3)
Celina (5-8)_______ Nurse (6-0)
Brooke (5-4)______ Jefferson (5-7)

Horns are going to face what is probably the best starting five as a group in WCBB. The engines that make UConn go are Stewart and Jefferson. That will be tough matchups for Imani and Brooke. Imani will have the more difficult matchup defensively as Stewart can score anywhere from inside the paint to BTA. Imani’s best value to the Horns is in the paint where she can block or alter shots. Look for her to match up with Tuck more than Stewart with Ariel, Jordan and others covering Stewart. Brooke will take her turn on Jefferson but will receive help from others as well. Horns cannot leave any of the UConn starters, except maybe Tuck alone BTA. Look for UConn to post Stewart inside and look to take advantage of the help defense for open layups. For UConn, the question will be whether Tuck or Stewart defend Imani. The other will have to contend with Ariel’s quickness and ability to slash and stop and pop. I expect them to blanket Brooke as much as possible and force the other guards to shoot from BTA. Imani’s and Kelsey’s ability to score inside will be critical. That will be dependent on the guards ability to get them the ball in good scoring position, not making them try to make difficult catches or get the ball near their knees/ankles nor in a crowd. Both Imani and Kelsey will need to stay out of foul trouble while playing aggressive defense. LaShann will once again be an xfactor on both ends. An important option will Jordan if she is able to give good minutes at the four against either Tuck or Stewart.

Team Stats______________________Texas (31-4)__________UConn (35-0)
Scoring__________________________2495________________3098
PPG_____________________________71.3_________________88.5
Scoring Margin_________________+15.7________________+40.8
FGs Made-Att___________________926-2124_____________1206-2284
FG Ave/Game Made-Att_________26.5-60.7____________34.5-65.3
FG%____________________________43.6%________________52.8%
2pt Made-Att___________________767-1645____________938-1566
2pt FGs Ave/Game Made-Att___21.9-47.0_____________26.8-44.7
2pt FG%________________________46.6%________________59.9%
3p FGs Made-Att_______________159-479_______________268-718
3pt Ave/Game Made-Att_______4.5-13.7______________7.7-20.5
3pt FG%_______________________33.2%________________37.3%
FTs Made-Att__________________484-696______________418-524
FT Ave/Game Made-Att________13.8-19.9____________11.9-15.0
FT %___________________________69.5%_______________79.8%
Rebounds_____________________1464__________________1443
RPG___________________________41.8_________________41.2
Reb Margin___________________+9.6___________________+11.7
Assists________________________494___________________756
APG___________________________14.1________________21.6
Turnovers_____________________558__________________412
TOPG_________________________15.9__________________11.8
TO Margin____________________+2.2________________+9.4
A/TO Ratio____________________0.9_________________1.8
Steals_________________________280__________________430
SPG___________________________8.0_________________12.3
Blocks_________________________183__________________227
BPG___________________________5.2________________6.5
Winning Streak_______________3____________________35

Score by quarters (ave)_____1st_____2nd_____3rd _____4th_____Total
Texas (31-4)_________________17.3___16.6_____18.2____19.2_____71.3
UConn (35-0)________________24.0___21.1_____23.8____19.6_____88.5

Okay, once again. Texas vs UConn, this time in the Elite Eight for a chance to get to the Final Four. I know pretty much everyone has conceded this game to UConn. I hope our players are not thinking that way. There’s a chance, however slim, for the upset. UConn is simply playing at another level. They don’t take more shots than the average team; they simply make a lot more of their chances. They don’t get a large number of rebounds, mainly because they don’t miss that much. Their defense is stifling. But Texas has to run their offense effectively to find the cracks.

Both teams like to run. UConn forces over 21 TOs a game. Horns average 16 TOs a game. Horns will need to use crisp, sharp passes to minimize TOs. UConn gets over 12 steals a game which leads usually to a layup on the other end. Texas can counter with 8 steals a game. While UConn has a lot of team speed, Texas is not exactly slow in the backcourt. A JOAT is a jack of all trades, able to do a bit of everything. Realistically, the game changer that UConn has is Stewart who does a bit of everything very well, basically a MOAT, master of all trades. Texas’ advantage is inside with Imani. Texas’ ability to get out and run off defensive rebounds will be key. As will be making open shots. Horns have to be steady and opportunistic to have a chance to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 2003.

Game time is Monday, March 28 at 6 PM. The game will be televised on ESPN and carried on The Horns, 104.9 FM.

 

Picking the Elite Eight games: very short video about UConn & Texas

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15075349/why-elite-eight-team-reach-women-final-four-indianapolis

video conference for Elite Eight (Texas): well, geez, can’t see either the UConn or Texas video since it is encrypted. Hope someone has better luck. Good thing they included the written transcript.

http://www.texassports.com/news/2016/3/27/womens-basketball-video-texas-vs-uconn-pre-game-press-conference-march-27-2016.aspx

 

I think Aston should give UConn a heavy dose on Higgs, Hosey, and McCarty.....let them know that Texas has arrived....and scare the bajeebers out of teams who will face us next year.

 

Interesting quotes from the UConn interview:

About how they play: (COACH AURIEMMA answering)

Moriah Jefferson answering a question And about our zone defense (??) we play a zone defense?:

 

Haha! Well, maybe they are preparing for a zone and we can surprise them!!!

 

UCONN is not unbeatable. They are going to lose at some point, so why not this season? And why not tomorrow night? No question it would take a phenomenal performance for us to pull off the upset, and even if we have a great game, it still may not be enough. But we absolutely have the talent to be competitive with the Huskies. And all of the pressure should be on UCONN; everyone expects them to win in a blowout. So there is no reason for us to be nervous, we should play freely (but not sloppily), and never panic. We are too good for the Huskies to win by anything close to the same margin they did last year. If that happens, it won't be because they are that much better than us, it will be because we let the moment get the better of us. Our seniors have faced a lot of great teams during their collegiate careers, and after four years of competing in the Big 12, they should be ready for anything. And our great young talent all have a season, or in most instances two under their belts. We should be up to the challenge. Let's go Horns!

 

I think that when the horns shock the basketball world, everyone of the will say who believed the horns could do it and then Longhorn Nation would say we believed they would win and will win it all, they have that #texasfight #hookem!!! Lets go Horns!!

 

Watch Karen and the starting lineup's press conference from today. I'm not sure but I think it's about the 5 minute mark where Karen gets exasperated with all the questions about UConn and says something like, "I'm wondering why every question is about UConn, why don't you ask me something about Texas". Yay Coach, way to go!

 

Thanks for the video link, Rexy. Still having trouble figuring that out. Gotta admit I do like the written word, though.

From the AAS: “Davenport, Jefferson build hoops bond in Texas”
http://www.hookem.com/story/davenport-jefferson-build-hoops-bond-in-texas/

AAS story from Rick Cantu:
http://www.hookem.com/story/texas-aims-to-topple-mighty-uconn-from-its-perch/

AAS game preview:
http://www.hookem.com/2016/03/27/womens-preview-texas-vs-uconn/

From the New Haven paper-story on Katie Lou Samuelson:
http://www.nhregister.com/sports/20160327/samuelson-coming-into-her-own-for-uconn-women

New Haven paper game preview:
http://www.nhregister.com/sports/20160327/ncaa-womens-tournament-game-day-capsule-uconn-vs-texas

Hartford Courant story on Texas:
http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-uconn-women-opponent-0328-20160327-story.html

Hartford Courant game preview:
http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-uconn-women-elite-8-capsule-0328-20160327-story.html

Hartford Courant story about the matchup:
http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-uconn-women-elite-8-advance-0328-20160327-story.html

 

I like how she was honest when the local reporter was fishing for compliments for Geno, and asked what he had meant to the sport. Coach A said that she liked that he was supportive of women in the sport, but that this hadn't always been the case, especially early in his career. Or something like that, I'd have to go back and watch again to get exact wording. But I definitely don't think it was the answer the reporter expected.

 

Such BS they get to play this essentially as a home game. 1st/2nd rounds, sure. But 3rd/4th rounds? When do we get to play the 3rd/4th rounds at the Cedar Park Center?

 

I agree, she didn't give the answer the reporter expected and I am glad she didn't

 

Yea, she mentioned when he was "on the fast track" Geno didn't have much time or make the effort to support & grow women's basketball. I was impressed with the way she handled that press conference.

 

Video from texassports.com (practice)
http://www.texassports.com/news/2016/3/27/womens-basketball-video-sights-and-sounds-from-pre-uconn-practice-march-27-2016.aspx

preview from uconn sports:
http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/w-baskbl/spec-rel/032716aaa.html

 

When they put in a bid for the regionals.

 

You can do it Lady Horns - The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You....

 

It's around the 21 minute mark when Karen gets frustrated with a reporter. He asks her if the team could be looking past the UConn game because they want another chance to play Baylor. She pauses as she wonders if he is joking (because the question is ridiculous). Then she proceeds to asks if anyone has questions about Texas because so many questions have been about UConn and Geno.

Personally, other than the question about looking past UConn, I thought the questions were on point and fairly balanced about how Texas is going to prepare for UConn and the tough task it is to beat them.

Our team seems focused. Hopefully the three games against Baylor will help us to hang tough as they take on the best team in WCBB.

 

Newsday story about UConn’s dominance with lots of familiar quotes. But a short talk with Coach Conradt’s take on it. Got some nice humor in it and a reminder that Texas was one of the schools that originally set the standard. Got the story from the UConn board, that’s the second link below to the thread about this Newsday article.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/college/college-basketball/uconn-women-s-basketball-rolling-again-can-anyone-challenge-them-1.11624295

http://the-boneyard.com/threads/jody-conrad-on-the-matchups.90474/

Coach Conradt on favorable matchups for Texas:

Now that's funny.

 

Thinking about this game is like sitting in the dentist's office waiting for your root canal

 

I would like nothing more than for UT to send UCONN back home. It's only 80 miles, so they can share 3-4 taxis. Here's hoping for two Big 12 teams in the Final Four!

 

I say go twin towers on their *** and slow the game down to a halt. Take the full shot clock on every possession. If we try to run we will lose by 50. UConn will outrun us. We need to go big, bog it down and go to the bigs on every posession and try get them in foul trouble. To hell with playing an exciting game.

 

I hear you, and on some level it kind of makes sense. Then again, UCONN outrun us? I actually think we're faster than the Huskies, though perhaps you mean in terms of endurance, or playing at the same level for a full 40 minutes. Overall I'm not sure the Horns would be very good playing at a slow pace, I just don't think that's who we are.

 

I would agree with that if Texas was more efficient in the half court. And if Kelsey and Imani were more effective playing with their backs to the basket. This team won't score enough if they slow the pace and grind it out. UConn's defense is too good in the half court when they're set and Texas is not efficient enough on offense. It's damn if you do, damn if you don't. Try to run and get beat by 50 points while scoring 60. Or, don't run and grind it out and get beat by 50 while only scoring 40 points.

 

UConn wont score enough to beat us by 50 if we eat the clock. I agree we havent played grind it basketball all year and the chemistry of Kelsie and Imani on the floor together might be unproven, but I feel like something radical has to be done. The less UConn has the ball the better our chances are, and the bigger our bodies inside are will force them to take more shots outside.

We dont have anything to lose imo.

 

You pick your poison with UConn. Last year I offered the same suggestion: slow the damn game down as much as possible. I also think we should play zone most of the time. Can UConn kill us with threes from outside if we are in a zone? Yes, they can. But in man to man, they have even more ways to kill us both inside and outside. A zone defense and slower game minimize the number of ways they can beat you, and also reduce the number of shots they will take. They make a really high percentage of their shots, so you don't want to multiply their attempts. Also a zone does more to protect Imani and Aerial, who are foul prone. I don't think we can go with our two bigs at the same time, because Lang is always needed to spell Imani, though how Brittany Taylor and Jordan Hosey can possibly match up with Morgan Tuck, I don't know. I also agree running is not the answer, though that's what we do best. UConn LOVES to run. That just opens up the floor for them. Aston said in one pre game interview that last year we took too many quick shots and that "kind of sucked us in," meaning that initiated a wide open game where UConn was at their best, I think. Empress Davenport and others should not be launching lots of quick jumpers. Now, is this a great strategy that guarantees victory? No, it is a desperate one that tries to hold the score down. Our best chance is to hang around and hang around and make things dull. Fewer plays, fewer shots, fewer opportunities for Connecticut athleticism. Delighted if I'm wrong, but that's the way I see it.

 

Uconn would still get extra possessions because Texas isn't efficient. Texas turns the ball over at a high rate. I think they should try to be smart and run if there's opportunities but if nothing is there pull the ball out and run offense. I do agree with you that they need to take good shots and don't take bad / quick shots in the half court which will basically be just like a turnover.

 

I agree with you that Coach Aston should play zone against UConn. But the bottom line is that no matter what offense Texas plays UConn is going to score. To me running when there's opportunities and taking bad/ quick shots are two different things. Again, if Texas tries to limit possession they end up hurting themselves imo because they need as any possessions as possible.

They're not efficient and turn the ball over at a high rate which is going to give Uconn extra possessions anyway. If Texas could get offensive rebounds that would help them get some of those extra possessions that they're going to need. I agree with you about taking quick shots, and Empress is the player that worries me the most when it comes to taking bad /quick shots.

 

Thats basically my strategy, from a more learned point of view. I know Kelsie usually spells Imani, but if we slow it down, she wont get tired as easy. And this is the Elite 8. Suck it up. Take up as much space as possible. Id rather UConn hit jump shots to win.

 

How to beat UCONN: Control the ball; Control the clock; contain Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Morgan Tuck, Katie Samuelson, and the Husky bench. Oh yes, and outcoach Geno.

 

You left out...Pay the refs so they won't cheat for UConn like they did in our final four matchup a few years back....