The Batting

Discussion in 'Baseball' started by Chop, Mar 1, 2023.

  1. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    I'm good with Daly. He's batting in the high 200s (almost 0.300) and has a homerun and some extra base hits. Agree on Carlson. We need his bat in the lineup. I suppose if Thomas stays cold, Powell could be 1B and Jayden DuPlantier the DH?

    Ideally, Thomas will progress to where he's batting like a first baseman is expected to bat. And by the time he's done here, I bet he will. I just hope it's sooner rather than later.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

  3. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    in 2021, Daly batted over 0.300.
    in 2022, Daly was below 0.250 (I think)

    Thus far, this year Daly is looking more like the 2021 Daly than the 2022 Daly.
  4. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    • Agree Agree x 1
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2023 at 10:05 AM
  5. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Campbell started out slow, but I think we've got to keep him in there. He's just too good, and his bat is starting to heat up. If he gets on a roll, he's a guy that can knock 15-20 homeruns on the year.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. aUTfan

    aUTfan 1,000+ Posts

    Yeah, I’m worried about him coming through in the clutch against top competition, I don’t think he did against LSU or Cal St. Fullerton and we will need it come playoff time from our experienced players.

    the batting stats will get inflated during this home stretch but instead of looking at their avg, I’ll be looking to see who makes good contact and doesn’t strike out with the lowered competition. These are key metrics for me and more of a tell for me on how they are actually progressing.
  7. aUTfan

    aUTfan 1,000+ Posts

    I’ll be worried about campbell if he’s still struggling well into conference play. I still have no doubts about him.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Jack is starting to heat up. He's batting 0.261 with a homerun and 2 triples. OBS right around 0.750. I think he's a guy who can hit North of 0.300 and into the double digits for homeruns on the year. He also draws plenty of walks.

    Jack currently has a 6 game hitting streak that goes back to LSU.

    Jack O'Dowd - Baseball - University of Texas Athletics
    • Like Like x 1
  9. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    10 hits tonight.

    And Jack O'Dowd extends his hitting streak to 7 games.
  10. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Our bats -- OPS
    (as of 3/12/2023)

    There are seven different categories for classification by OPS used by Bill James (the inventor of "Moneyball). Here they are with our guys put in these categories based on their OPS as of 3/12/2023:

    1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

    Powell 1.199
    Kennedy 0.951
    Brown 0.946

    2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

    Nobody for now

    3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

    Daly 0.805
    J. DuPlantier 0.800
    Guillemette 0.796
    O'Dowd 0.772

    4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

    Nobody for now

    5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

    Campbell 0.691
    Carlson 0.687
    Galvan 0.686

    6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

    Thomas 0.599

    7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

    Belyeu 0.405
    Flores 0.405
    Whitehead 0.393
    Constantine 0.125

    I'm not worried about Campbell or Carlson -- they're both good and will move up. Thomas needs to up his game, he's just a Freshman, but improvement is needed. Flores is dragging pretty bad in the early season. Ace hasn't been at bat enough to tell, nor has Belyeu or Constantine. Daly is underappreciated by many. Daly leads the above-average pack.

    2023 Baseball Cumulative Statistics - University of Texas Athletics
    What Is OPS in Baseball? Well, It Measures…
  11. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    7 out of 9 of our batters are above-average or better.

    The bottom of the lineup needs to step it up.

    We may never see another batting lineup like last year, but this year's team could turn into a really good hitting team. I think our OB% is good, and we're knocking a lot of doubles.

    • Agree Agree x 1
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2023
  12. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Powell continues to tear through opposing pitching staffs.

    Kennedy's cooling down from red hot to warm.

    Campbell continues to struggle, but he is making some sacrifice plays.

    Daly is still looking like 2021 Daly--batting over 0.300 and driving runs in.

    Guillemette keeps getting on base, and driving runs in.

    Thomas always looks like he's on the verge of breaking out, but hasn't quite done it yet. His bat needs to improve before conference play. If he's slumping during conference play, then Powell can fill in at 1st base from time-to-time for the bat.

    Jaden DuPlantier has a hot bat. (put him at DH most games, and Powell at 3rd or outfield or 1st, or wherever--Powell can play anywhere in the field).

    Brown keeps showing up well at the plate.

    Jack O'Dowd is a solid batter.

    Flores has one homerun, and not much else thus far...

    Carlson has done ok, but hasn't played as much as he should

    Galvan looks like he's got some power. Use it when he spells Guillemette on occasion, or at DH on occasion.

    Belyeu hasn't done anything yet, but he hasn't had many chances.
  13. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Dylan Campbell's bat has come alive. If he get's on a streak like last year, watch out.
  14. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    A fair goal is to have all 9 of our regular/every-day starters batting "Average" or better in the OPS ratings. Then, we can be a chain with no weak links. Campbell is probably already there, and moving up rapidly. Thomas, a true Freshman, needs to keep improving.
  15. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Updated OPS stats as of 3/16/2023

    1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

    Powell 1.118
    Kennedy 1.025
    Brown 0.981

    2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

    Nobody for now

    3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

    Guillemette 0.827
    J. DuPlantier 0.820
    Daly 0.801

    4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

    O'Dowd 0.741
    Campbell 0.717

    5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

    Carlson 0.687

    6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

    Thomas 0.628
    Galvan 0.625

    7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

    Belyeu 0.453
    Flores 0.405
    Whitehead 0.393
    Constantine 0.125
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2023 at 10:20 AM
  16. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    So, as of 3/16, we've got 8 batters at average or better, including 3 in the "Great" category. Look for Campbell and O'Dowd to move up into the above-average category before long. True Freshman Thomas is still the laggard among starters, but look for him to go from "Poor" to "Below Average" soon, and hopefully keep advancing into the "Average" or even better as he gets more experience this year. Carlson could also move into the "Average" category if he ever got to play.
  17. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Morning of St Patrick's Day.

    Our team OPS is 0.795

    That's firmly within the "Above Average" category.

    Thanks largely to our pitching, our Opponents' OPS in games vs us is 0.668, which is within the "Below Average" category.

    That's an OPS Delta of 0.127 -- a big difference between our hitting, and how other teams are hitting against us.

    A lot of our losses have been by 1 run or 2 runs. I wish we'd score more runs, but this could be a really good team.

    2023 Baseball Cumulative Statistics - University of Texas Athletics
  18. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    Do you think the MLB OPS stat translates to the college level? I'm sure its a pretty good overall measure but everyone in MLB elite so this type of metric is almost exact science. We're about to finish a stretch of games against some pretty mediocre to bad teams where we are boosting our numbers a lot.

    Not intended to criticize, just wondering about that and how it will translate to conference play.

    Looking at our losses we didn't do poorly at the plate I guess but not sure where to find OPS for single game results.
  19. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    You won't find me in the Houston Astros' analytics department, or anything like that, but here's my stab at it...

    There is a certain level of "alchemy" to baseball stats. But, given a large enough sample, I think that the Moneyball OPS stat is a pretty good measure of a batter's overall effectiveness at both the pro and the college level. It captures OB% (which, in turn, captures batting average and walks), and Slugging % (which weighs doubles, triples, and homeruns a lot more than singles). One thing it does not measure is RBI--which, to me, is a gauge of clutch hitting (but I think the Moneyball folks largely disregard it).

    If the competition and "padding stats" vs crappy teams is what bothers you, LSU, Tech, Arkansas, and just about everyone else also does it before conference play starts. If our #s go South a bit over the course of conference play, that's not too surprising. What OPS also does is rank your batters, and shows you who's getting better and who's slumping. I think it's pretty effective.
  20. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Bottom line: right now, we're a decent hitting team overall--above average overall (not a very good hitting team), but decent/above average. The OPS stats confirm this, and possibly boost us a tad above reality at bat.

    We're a very good pitching team. Best in the conference (although Tech's staff is putting up some pretty good numbers as well). And with the strength of our bullpen, this (plus an above average hitting team) could put us anywhere from 3rd in the conference to Omaha.
  21. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    The bottom 2-3 hitters need to step it up. The top of the lineup is carrying us offensively.
  22. Your Wrong

    Your Wrong 250+ Posts

    I’m no analytics dude, but batting average with RISP is a pretty strong indicator over RBIs for me. Even within that, there are variations - on 3rd with less than 2 outs is different than man on 2nd with 2 outs. A sac fly in the former doesn’t negatively impact your BA, but an RBI groundout does. A hit in the latter scenario may not score the runner but in most cases advances the situation and allows the next guy an opportunity. A lot of RBIs does not necessarily indicate efficiency - it could be more opportunities.

    Using all the numbers collectively is more impactful. Is Porter Brown our best run producer or is he the recipient of the most opportunities?

    As to OPS, that’s a pretty encompassing stat so it’s gotta be useful. It’s probably more limited now because of the limited sample size that’s heavily impacted by lesser teams played to date, which is not specific to us.

    I like the traditional stats. At the same time, I’m not overly excited about a guy like Ichiro hitting .350 with an OBP of .375 and somebody else’s lead off guy battling.300 with an OBP of .400.

    We seem to have patient hitters. That may change as our competition becomes better and more consistent. We’ve had more and harder outs than our opponents the last two weeks. I’m interested to see how it impacts us once the weather warms up. If we convert a few more into gappers, that’ll help.

    Our last two spots need to produce like was mentioned. Campbell hasn’t produced the runs yet, but he has been getting on base reasonably well, and that’s really the expectation for two hole hitter.

    Be patient at the plate and keep taking good swings. Then just see where the chips fall.
  23. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts


    Eric Kennedy

    7 homeruns

  24. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    56 games in the regular season

    figure (pessimistic) scenario-- 2 games in conference tourney, 2 games in regional

    Total 60 games.

    We've played 21 games.

    60 divided by 21 equals 2.86; so take current homeruns multiplied by 2.86, and round for projected homeruns for the following players:

    Batter...........Homeruns........Projected Homeruns



    So, we're on pace for 66 homeruns this year.
    That's average. Not good. Not bad. Just average.
  25. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Right now, we're 5th out of 9th (exactly in the middle) of the Big 12 in runs scored, batting average, and homeruns.

    We've got an average offense this year. (and that may be all we need with this pitching staff...)

    Big 12 Conference
  26. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    Campbell's OPS is up to 0.808

    That means he's batting above-average (per the Moneyball guys).

Share This Page