The Downfall of OU

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by RainH2burntO, Feb 18, 2020.

  1. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 1,000+ Posts

    There's no article here, no stat-backed divulgence of expert insight...just one football fan's observation, intuition, and prediction.
    Looking forward to responses and opinions...

    I have been sensing for some time that the beginning of the end of ou's dominance was at hand. It started the day Stoops resigned/retired. No, they arent going to crash to the bottom of the pack all of a sudden....in fact there may be little real noticeable change over the next few years.
    But, the signs are written on the wall. Rather than some eloquent, prose-style dissertation, for time and space sake, I will bullet-point the reasons this may occur .....sooner...
    rather than later:

    1. Bob Stoops was an anchor for their most recent run of stabilized success and is gone
    2. I've never fully bought Lincoln (though he seems like a nice enough guy) and believe he will be exposed as not being an elite college-level head coach.
    3. I see ou currently as ttu but with better athletes and coaching. Not the worst indictment in the world, but not good enough to be an perennial conference winner, national top 10, and NewYears Day or playoff bowl participant.
    4. I believe Linc's ttu pedigree and background will ultimately guide his vision and scope of understanding and limit ou's ceiling.
    5. ou has had an unsustainable period of timely luck to bolster perception and results...primarily at QB. I am a big believer that most luck is earned, so I credit them for this...just believe it is unsustainable.
    6. Ironically, one likely outcome of multiple appearances in the CFP playoff and some high-profile face-plants is overexposure and "viewer" fatigue. It it like that overplayed song that is real good but not great. It's not cool for long.
    7. I believe the reliance on transfer QBs was a cheap Walmart holiday cookie that tasted pretty good going down....but left them unhealthy. Taking time to create some old-fashioned, from-scratch goodies would have provide a more delicious long-term reward. I also think the bad aftertaste of artificial ingredients may adversely affect recruiting, loyalty, and culture.
    8. If ou were a stock....or even just a football team...you'd have to say that making the tops lists of Fortune 500...or appearing in 3 out of the last 4 CFP playoffs...would he a huge boon to stock price...or recruiting. It hasn't.
    9. I believe ou may soon enter territory UT has just barely avoided fully and is starting to claw out of....a program whose perceived relevance and elite standing is lost on many modern day recruits.
    10. The fact that ou is in Oklahoma, according to all of God's law, nature and truth itself, must catch up to it at some point.
    11. Texas is rising...and so are a few others....I believe the tell-tales were there during the 2016-2017 and then 2018 regular season matchup...We are starting to emerge as the more physically imposing team (something necessary to rise to elite status). If Orlando and his guys don't screw it up in the 4th quarter '18, I believe the stomping would have carried over into the Big12 Championship and the balance of power begun to shift. The 4th quarter near-collapse changed the narrative drastically for 2018 and behind-the-scenes distractions and coaching issues added to postpone a new trend in 2019. Like a stock divergence and run in early stages.....the trend begins before it is realized.
    12. I believe Tom Herman will ultimately prove to be the better coach vs LR
    13. TH's Ohio State pedigree and "plugged-in" nature with understanding of what elite programs are doing today will bear more fruit soon and prove greater than Linc and his staff's understanding of what it takes to accomplish this and sustain it.
    14. I do not believe that ou's defense will become one of the sustained best in the Big12, or anywhere, anytime soon.
    15. Sustained runs like the one they've enjoyed are hard to hold onto. Gravity catches up eventually...always.
    16. Very simple...ou still sucks and won't stop. Eventually, that sucking will pull them back down
     
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    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020
  2. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    While your theory has merit, I take exception with one of the basis you set forth. The decline of OU will be tied more to the retirement of Dr Boren than to Bob Stoops. Dr Boren was a great leader for OU and one of two people propping up the Big XII. Without Deloss and Dr Boren, the Big XII is left with only CdC, who while capable may have too much on his plate.

    FWIW, I have personally advised over 250 families to visit Norman and have encouraged them to send their children there. Every one of them (many athletes in non revenue sports) are very happy with their choice.

    Without Dr Boren in Norman, I am no longer comfortable referring kids to OU.

    :hookem2:
     
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    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020
  3. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    SabreHorn
    Interesting
    So You think ou will decline as a school ?
     
  4. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Boren & Switzer set the tone. No school in America took better care of their students (both athletes & non athletes) than OU. That culture was extraordinary. The new president has so far appeared to be a shithead as far as the students are concerned. I won't be surprised to see him move to Travis County. He has big shoes to fill, but appears incapable of that task.

    Bubba. your thoughts please.
     
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  5. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    To help them understand how fortunate their lives were growing up?
     
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  6. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    Your premise seems to be yeah they are good now but they won’t be in the future because various reasons.

    Two recent Heisman winners, four straight playoff appearances, and they are doomed. Does not compute.
     
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  7. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 1,000+ Posts

    I get it, Dion.
    If I saw this type of thread on a rivals website, I'd go nuts.
    Doesn't mean it won't prove true. We shall see...
    It's a prognostication (by definition has to be forward-looking in premise).
    It's not news about what happened last night.
    :hookem:
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2020
  8. FWHORN

    FWHORN 5,000+ Posts

    3 Big XII Titles and 3 CFP berths in three years under Riley would seem to stand in stark contrast to the immediate likelihood of this proposition. Riley's recruiting classes have been strong and continue to be strong. I hope you are right but it sounds more like wishful thinking in the short term. Every school has ups and downs and eventually OU will have another down period but I'm not convinced that is anytime soon.
     
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  9. dukesteer

    dukesteer 2,500+ Posts

    Talk about click bate!

    But Rain, I agree with almost everything you have written above and have believed that such a decline was probable.

    Well done. We shall see. It will be determined over a decade, not just a few seasons.
     
  10. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 2,500+ Posts

    The reason I don't agree with you isn't because I disagree with you. But there is no real evidence that Riley isn't as good as his to-this-point performance. Maybe he's not a world beater. There's no evidence that he isn't though.
     
  11. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 1,000+ Posts

    Yeah...I am serious about this prognostication...but do recognize the flaws or potential flaws/pitfalls with it. It's just a for-fun prognostication...not a guarantee...but one I believe has merit. Some of the points weaker than others, but not some thoughtless homer-splooge. I've been an admirer and believer in what ou has done for years. How can you not be? But, I'm predicting we will have flipped places with them by 2022-'24...and that the primary causes are already in place now (Sabre just added a good one, also).
    If it does not occur... It will mean TH failed at Texas, Spencer Rattler became a stud, Riley's offensive magic endured...defenses didn't figure it out, and this thread was wack.
    All of these are possible....But I am betting against.
    :hookem:
     
  12. YearOfTheSteer

    YearOfTheSteer 500+ Posts

    The downfall of OU begins when Texas wins the conference and keeps the Golden Hat in Austin for multiple seasons in a row. :hookem:
     
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  13. Detective Shilala

    Detective Shilala 2,500+ Posts

    You have some compelling reasons but I don't see it the way you do.

    First - I don't agree with your assessment of Riley. Time will tell. But right now I would say OU has the better HC.
    For OU to falter Herman has to prove your thesis and prove me wrong.

    Also, Most of your other arguments have applied to OU for more than a decade and the slide into mediocrity has never materialized. They have remained good to great the whole time for the exact opposite reasons we have floundered. Solid, steady, leadership at the highest levels

    It starts from the very top and perhaps Boren stepping down will have the impact that we hope for it to have.
    But we have had the perfect recipe for bad athletics for almost a decade now. its more than just having a bad president. its more than having a lousy showing in the CFP a few times. Its more than pissing off a few recruits by getting transfers.
     
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  14. El Sapo

    El Sapo Bevo's BFF

    I've been too busy trying to understand our downfall than to think about whether OU is heading for one.

    Mostly because...

    This.

    Would personally see love to see this happen...

    and hopefully it starts next year :hookem:
     
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  15. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Take away all of the fluff and as of right now it is to early to judge. Riley was handed a playoff-ready team. Herman was handed a POS. Give it another two years and then start the comparison with teams recruited by each coach.
     
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  16. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Viper,

    My new concern is the quality of coaching staff. The ejections and additions. This will make or break Herman because he won’t get another chance to shuffle the deck. His lack of common sense is incredible.

    :hookem2:
     
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    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020
  17. KBBAKER

    KBBAKER 250+ Posts

    Who (besides Texas) in the Big 12 can beat OU, or even offer up a challenge on a regular basis? Texas gets zero help from it's Big 12 brethren. Texas must beat OU 3-4 times in a row before the tide will turn.
     
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  18. Galvestonhorn

    Galvestonhorn 250+ Posts

    I will agree that Boren and the garbage, white trash Switzer took better care of their "student athletes" (lmao) than anybody else in the country and succeeded in making OU a college their football team could be proud of, no doubt.
     
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  19. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 5,000+ Posts

    If (and that’s a big IF) Dr Boren’s replacement indeed humps the puppy like I think he will, oSu is waiting to pick the bones clean. Their largest alumni chapter is in Houston, second in Dallas.

    Jackie Sherri was only successful at A&M after he “woke the Aggies up”. (His words not mine.). Okie Lite has a long, illustrious history of cheating, see also Hart Lee Dykes. If Mike can wake up their alumni, OU starts imploding, the two logical choices are Texas and oSu, unless of course Gundy is the HC in Austin.
     
  20. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 1,000+ Posts

    Some people on here are responding as though I said ou (and/or Linc) has absolutely fallen or absolutely will. All I did was lay out some very subjective (and mostly speculative) beliefs and presumptions as to why I suspect they might soon do so. I reread my thread. I purposely worded it the way I did for effect, to a degree ...but perhaps I should have changed a few of my "assertions" to "may possibly's" for clarity.

    Something may be lost in translation...

     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2020
  21. Galvestonhorn

    Galvestonhorn 250+ Posts

    I can't ever see the downfall of OU football. Since WWII those guys decided to win at all cost. They get every break there is, do whatever they want, laugh at the NCAA and everybody else, have an alumni base from very, extremely rich people on down to the poor folks in Oklahoma that have nothing else but OU football. They care about one thing and one thing only and that is winning football games.

    Under Wilkenson, they played with vets that were in their late 20's and 30's against high school kids and kicked everybodys a$$.

    Under Switzer OU ran roughshod over college football. There were a few down years until Stoops and the only thing standing between the evil and good is Texas (and we haven't done a great job lately).

    You're never going to dominate OU in football for long anymore than OU is going to dominate Texas for long.

    And....F---OU
     
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  22. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    2 of the e CFP games were with Heisman winners and they still could not do better than the first round.

    LSU just *****-slapped them into humiliation.
     
  23. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    If, for some reason or another, OU has a mini-downturn like the late 80s to the mid-90s, they'll solve it faster than they did back then because of the way transfers work and how quickly information is disseminated now. People were wary of OU because of the drug/Switzer scandal and Boz's mental condition and tougher rules about transfers and what-not back then.

    Stoops knew what to do with Blake's players and it worked... quickly. I think if for some godforsaken reason, OU went 9-3 this year, they could get it right back to 11-1 because of their skill position talent and ability to work with what they've got.
     
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  24. George Bailey

    George Bailey 100+ Posts

    Interesting read. I want to agree with it. I also want to live long enough to see ou become Kansas. Heck, I wouldn't even mind if they fell back to the level of John Blake's days. Staying just good enough to have hope but still getting that *** kicked every year. But say in the next 5 years we see a major conference realignment. Would an SEC or B1G take a chance on them if they see ou the same as OP does?
    Would ou & Texas still be viewed as a package deal by others?
     

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