The effort to reform One and Done

Discussion in 'Men’s Basketball' started by Joe Fan, Apr 25, 2018.

  1. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    It appears the NBA and the players' union may be reaching a consensus on the need to change this rule
    We will see what comes of this. But nothing in time for 2018-19s

     
  2. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  3. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    Baseball is the template but as usual Union involvement prevents a common sense resolution.
     
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  4. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    I think a larger issue with undrafted underclassmen in basketball is that they take the "leap" to the draft because they have to (i.e. don't attend classes like ever). And then when someone points at Myck Kabongo as someone who should have stayed in college, he wouldn't have been able to stay in college anyhow. It's like Ben Simmons without the talent.
     
  5. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    Isn't that mostly their own fault?
     
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  6. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 1,000+ Posts

    i think the model is broken. 3-4 year guaranteed salaries to 17-80 year olds that will have a pretty high bust rate.

    if they would shorten the guaranteed money on high school draftees it would make more sense. there will be more Leons (Smith) than there will be Lebrons.
     
  7. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    Absolutely, but I'm referring to how outsiders perceive early draft-eligible submissions instead of reality. Everyone (or at least everyone with college degrees who value education) sits back and says "why can't they just go stay in college?" when I'm willing to bet that over half the time an underclassman declares, they do it with the full knowledge that they're not getting drafted and they're not going back to college. It's not the system's fault in those instances.

    I think the bust rate is far higher for guys drafted out of college than those from HS, but still, I don't think there's a huge "mental" difference between an 18-year-old and a 20-year-old. There were only 6 HS draftees in the last eligible draft class that allowed high schoolers (2005) and of those, only Ricky Sanchez didn't make a roster and opted to play professionally outside the NBA.
     
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  8. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    That makes sense, the threshold for being considered out of HS is so much higher.

    Similar to how height negatively correlates with odds of getting into the basketball Hall of Fame - tall spares still make it and it dilutes their pool, but short spares don't even get a chance.
     
  9. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 1,000+ Posts

    If I go through the list of high school draftees in the last 20 years, it looks to be about 1/3 all-stars, 1/3 serviceable players, 1/3 busts. Kwame Brown got a lot of money and let down a lot of fans. Maybe I'm just remembering them as bigger let downs and maybe their bust rate isn't higher.

    I just think there's a reason companies pay more for MBA employees than BBA employees (overall). They were good enough to go to the next level, competed there, and came out successful. It's an additional vetting process with more preparation for real life.

    I just don't think high schoolers deserve the same financial security and there should be less risk for the teams.
     
  10. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    It is but that comes out of the system, right? If you're a college player and you're using college strictly to leap to the pros, you put in enough time to make yourself "draftable" and once you do that, you're going to check out completely. You weren't there to get an education, so you weren't putting in the work, and there wasn't any reason to think that it would come back to bite you so long as you could keep from flunking out for a year.

    I'd say this would change the way some kids think about playing college ball - but certainly not all of them. At least now coaches can say "look, there's a good chance you won't get drafted, and if you don't, coming back to school gives you another shot and a year to improve - but you can't let your grades slip in the meantime or you won't have that second chance."
     

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